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Liverpool FC MI

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU15 · 16 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)

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13th
1-4-6 record · 11 played
0.64 points per game
-15 goal diff · 8–23
DLWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.0
-0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Liverpool FC MI
13th · 0.64 PPG
vs

Avondale High School, Auxiliary ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.7 for, 2.7 against · 0.35 expected points)

Season so farLiverpool FC MIEclipse Select Soccer Club
Position13th5th
Record (W-D-L)1-4-65-1-3
Points per game0.641.78
Goals for / game0.72.1
Goals against / game2.11.0
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless62
Form (recent first)L L W L DW D L L W
Biggest win1–0 at FC Wisconsin5–1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green
Worst loss0–4 at Rockford Raptors FC0–2 vs Nationals SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.12+0.92
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.09+0.28

Common opponents: St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 3–3; they 5–1. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 0–1; they 1–2. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 2–2; they 4–0. Rockford Raptors FC — we 0–4; they 0–1. Nationals SC — we 0–0; they 0–2. Sporting Blue Valley — we 0–3; they 3–0. Kansas City Athletics — we 0–4; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Eclipse Select Soccer Club score 2.1/game — well above the league's 1.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–1 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy, 0–4 at Rockford Raptors FC, 0–0 at Nationals SC, 0–1 vs Missouri Rush, 0–3 at Sporting Blue Valley, 0–4 at Kansas City Athletics.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Sporting Iowa sit 12th on 0.82 PPG; we are on 0.64.

    A point moves us above Sporting Iowa on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eclipse Select Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC MI – Eclipse Select Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.58 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2
Win
0.83 PPG
12th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 1
Draw
0.67 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1
Loss
0.58 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 17%
  14. 14th 43%
  15. 15th 32%
  16. 16th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.27 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Michigan Hawks 2.80 (+2.16) 1st (2.63) 35 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nationals SC 2.78 (+2.14) 2nd (2.59) 35 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 2.36 (+1.72) 3rd (2.27) 29 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Rockford Raptors FC 2.20 (+1.56) 4th (2.07) 26 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1.78 (+1.14) 5th (1.94) 20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Gretna Elite Academy 1.64 (+1.00) 6th (1.73) 18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Missouri Rush 1.33 (+0.69) 10th (1.22) 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
8 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 1.27 (+0.63) 8th (1.26) 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
9 Kansas City Athletics 1.17 (+0.53) 9th (1.26) 11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
10 Michigan Hawks Magic 0.91 (+0.27) 13th (0.80) 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
11 Sporting Blue Valley 0.90 (+0.26) 11th (1.03) 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
12 Sporting Iowa 0.82 (+0.18) 12th (0.88) A point next game

How the results connect

73 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Liverpool FC MI to Eclipse Select Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
9 even
60 favour them
-3.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–1 0–0 2–0 0–4 1–0 2–2 0–4 3–3 1–5 0–4 1–2 0–3 0–3 1–0 1–1 1–3 1–0 2–2 2–0 Liverpool FC MI 13th St. Louis Scott Gal… 3rd Nationals SC 2nd Rockford Raptors FC 4th Michigan Hawks Magic 10th St. Louis Scott Gal… 8th Kansas City Athleti… 9th Sporting Blue Valley 11th Sporting Iowa 12th Eclipse Select Socc… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 6 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.48 · 2nd hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Eclipse Select Soccer Club
5th · 5-1-3 · GD +10
Home
Avondale High School
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–2 0.35 0.61 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
Chicago Inter
14th · 1-1-7 · GD -15
Home
Avondale High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.51 0.68 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
MN Thunder Academy
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Avondale High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
18%
0–1 0.77 0.69 Upside
Sat Dec 12
03:00 PM
Michigan Hawks
1st · 9-1-0 · GD +31
Home
UWM Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–3 0.09 0.65 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks 10910 354+31 282.80 WWWDW -0.23 +0.14 100% 1.4
2 Nationals SC 9810 171+16 252.78 DWWWW -0.01 -0.20 100% 1.7
3 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 11821 215+16 262.36 WWWWW -0.17 +0.18 96% 3.1
4 Rockford Raptors FC 10712 1911+8 222.20 WWWWL +0.02 -0.11 61% 4.3
5 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 9513 199+10 161.78 WLLDW +0.28 -0.53 36% 4.8
6 Gretna Elite Academy 11533 209+11 181.64 WLDLW +0.02 -0.13 6% 5.9
7 Missouri Rush 12516 1016-6 161.33 WLWLW -0.15 +0.68 0% 9.2
8 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11425 1322-9 141.27 LWWDL +0.05 -0.01 0% 9.0
9 Kansas City Athletics 12426 1917+2 141.17 WLDLW +0.10 -0.39 0% 8.6
10 Michigan Hawks Magic 11245 722-15 100.91 WLDLL -0.05 +0.46 0% 12.9
11 Sporting Blue Valley 10235 1014-4 90.90 LLDWL +0.13 -0.21 0% 10.7
12 Sporting Iowa 11236 918-9 90.82 LWLDL +0.13 -0.13 0% 12.0
13 Liverpool FC MI 11146 823-15 70.64 DLWLL -0.09 +0.48 0% 14.0
14 Chicago Inter 9117 621-15 40.44 LLLLW +0.16 -0.05 0% 14.4
15 FC Wisconsin 9018 021-21 10.11 LLLLL -0.14 +0.45 0% 16.0
16 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.