Fairfax Virginia Union

ECNL Girls · Mid-Atlantic GU15 · 11 teams · Fairfax Virginia Union (all teams)

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1st

3-0-0 record · 3 played

3.00 points per game

+10 goal diff · 12–2

WWWlast 3

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7

+0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Fairfax Virginia Union
1st · 3.00 PPG

South Carolina Surf
10th · 0.25 PPG

Shea Family Fields, Field 2 ↗ far trip

87% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.5 for, 0.8 against · 2.69 expected points)

Season so far	Fairfax Virginia Union	South Carolina Surf
Position	1st	10th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-0	0-1-3
Points per game	3.00	0.25
Goals for / game	4.0	0.5
Goals against / game	0.7	3.0
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	W W W	L D L L
Biggest win	6–0 vs NCFC Youth	—
Worst loss	—	0–6 at Arlington Soccer Association
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.54	-1.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.05	+0.39

Common opponents: Wilmington Hammerheads — we 4–2; they 2–4.

Game plan

They struggle to score
South Carolina Surf average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 3 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
South Carolina Surf concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–6 at Arlington Soccer Association.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Shea Family Fields.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Fairfax Virginia Union – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	1st— holds	3rd▼ down 2
Loss 2.25 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

56% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

1.7 average finish

1st 56%
2nd 26%
3rd 11%
4th 6%
5th 1%
6th <1%
7th <1%
8th <1%
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

3 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Fairfax Virginia Union to South Carolina Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

0 favour them

+7.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.25 · 8th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	South Carolina Surf 10th · 0-1-3 · GD -10	Away far trip Shea Family Fields	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	3–0	2.69	2.92	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Charlotte SA 7th · 1-1-1 · GD -2	Away far trip Orthocarolina Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–0	2.24	2.78	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM	VDA 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +9	Away far trip Howison Park	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.40	2.55	Upside
Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM	Beach FC 8th · 1-1-3 · GD +0	Home James W Robinson HS · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–0	2.26	2.51	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM	Arlington Soccer Association 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +8	Home James W Robinson HS · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.95	2.44	Swing game
Sat Jan 16 TBD	NC Fusion 11th · 0-0-3 · GD -12	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.85	2.49	Bank it
Sun Jan 17 02:30 PM	Richmond United 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +0	Away far trip Striker Park	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–0	2.16	2.45	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Fairfax Virginia Union

+10

3.00

WWW

+0.05

-0.25

99%

1.7

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Carolina Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Charlotte SA (7th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	VDA (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Beach FC (8th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	NC Fusion (11th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Richmond United (5th)	2–0	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VDA

2.60

DWWWW

-0.52

+0.30

94%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Beach FC (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Charlotte SA (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sun Oct 25 at NCFC Youth NC Courage · Sat Nov 7 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Richmond United (5th)	1–0	56%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	3–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth NC Courage

2.25

WLWW

+0.24

-0.43

98%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	7–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Beach FC (8th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Richmond United · Sun Oct 25 vs VDA · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Richmond United (5th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	VDA (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Charlotte SA (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	NC Fusion (11th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	3–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

1.83

DWDLW

+0.18

-0.54

86%

3.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Richmond United (5th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–4
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	6–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	VDA (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Beach FC (8th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sun Nov 15 at Fairfax Virginia Union See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Charlotte SA (7th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NC Fusion (11th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	3–1	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United

1.40

WWDLL

-0.50

+0.55

6.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Charlotte SA (7th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Beach FC (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth NC Courage · Sun Oct 25 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Nov 21 at South Carolina Surf See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	VDA (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	0–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wilmington Hammerheads

1.33

DLW

+0.36

-0.21

17%

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	2–4
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs VDA · Sun Oct 25 vs Richmond United · Sat Oct 31 at Beach FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	VDA (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Richmond United (5th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Beach FC (8th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Charlotte SA (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	3–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA

-2

1.33

LWD

-0.18

+0.09

6.9

D	Sat Oct 17	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	VDA (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth NC Courage See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Beach FC (8th)	0–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NC Fusion (11th)	1–0	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach FC

0.80

LLWDL

+0.33

-0.37

6.8

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	VDA (2nd)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Richmond United (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NC Fusion · Sun Oct 25 at South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Wilmington Hammerheads See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NC Fusion (11th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Charlotte SA (7th)	1–0	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth

-12

0.60

WLLLL

+0.21

+0.09

9.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Richmond United (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Beach FC (8th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	5–0

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Jan 17 vs VDA See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Charlotte SA (7th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	VDA (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	South Carolina Surf (10th)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina Surf

-10

0.25

LLDL

+0.39

-0.10

9.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	2–4
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Charlotte SA (7th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	VDA (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 vs NC Fusion See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Beach FC (8th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NC Fusion (11th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Richmond United (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NC Fusion

-12

0.00

LLL

-0.18

+0.34

10.7

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Richmond United (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	VDA (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Beach FC (8th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Carolina Surf (10th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (6th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	NCFC Youth NC Courage (3rd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Charlotte SA (7th)	0–1	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.67 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.