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DKSC

ECNL Boys · Texas BU18/19 · 20 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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10th
4-2-4 record · 10 played
1.40 points per game
+4 goal diff · 20–16
WDWDLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.6
-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:15 AM

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DKSC
10th · 1.40 PPG
at
Colorado Storm
6th · 1.63 PPG

Stargate Charter School, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.5 against · 1.28 expected points)

Season so farDKSCColorado Storm
Position10th6th
Record (W-D-L)4-2-44-1-3
Points per game1.401.63
Goals for / game2.01.4
Goals against / game1.61.3
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)L D W D WD W L W L
Biggest win5–0 at Lonestar ATX Royal4–0 vs Lonestar ATX Royal
Worst loss0–3 at Lonestar ATX Red0–3 at RISE SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.20+0.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.16+0.15

Common opponents: Tulsa SC — we 2–1; they 2–2. OK Energy FC Academy — we 2–3; they 1–0. Lonestar ATX Royal — we 5–0; they 4–0. Lonestar ATX Red — we 0–3; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Lonestar ATX Red, 0–1 vs Sting.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:15 AM at Stargate Charter School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    OK Energy FC Academy sit 9th on 1.42 PPG; we are on 1.40.

    A point moves us above OK Energy FC Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Storm game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC – Colorado Storm) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.36 PPG
11th▼ down 1 10th— holds 13th▼ down 3
Win
1.55 PPG
6th▲ up 4 6th▲ up 4 10th— holds
Draw
1.36 PPG
11th▼ down 1 10th— holds 13th▼ down 3
Loss
1.27 PPG
12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2 16th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
10.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 11%
  13. 13th 10%
  14. 14th 9%
  15. 15th 7%
  16. 16th 3%
  17. 17th 1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th <1%
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.16 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth Red 2.57 (+1.17) 3rd (2.22) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SAFC 2.43 (+1.03) 2nd (2.26) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Lonestar ATX Red 2.38 (+0.98) 4th (2.17) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Solar SC Academy 2.33 (+0.93) 1st (2.27) 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Tulsa SC 1.64 (+0.24) 5th (1.73) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
6 Colorado Storm 1.63 (+0.23) 6th (1.55) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
7 RISE SC 1.50 (+0.10) 9th (1.47) A point next game
8 FC Westlake 1.50 (+0.10) 8th (1.48) A point next game
9 OK Energy FC Academy 1.42 (+0.02) 7th (1.54) A point next game

How the results connect

34 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC to Colorado Storm through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
4 even
17 favour them
-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–0 0–4 2–1 2–2 0–3 1–0 2–3 0–1 3–2 1–1 0–1 2–2 2–1 0–1 1–1 1–3 5–0 3–2 1–0 2–2 DKSC 10th Lonestar ATX Royal 20th Tulsa SC 5th Lonestar ATX Red 3rd OK Energy FC Academy 9th HTX 13th FC Westlake 8th FC Dallas Youth Red 1st SOLAR SC 15th Colorado Storm 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 7 Oct 14 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.11 · 5th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
02:00 PM
no score posted
Albion Hurricanes FC
14th · 2-3-3 · GD +0
Away far trip
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.36 1.40 Upside
Sun Oct 4
01:00 PM
no score posted
RISE SC
7th · 3-3-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
South Campus
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.24 1.38 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:15 AM
Colorado Storm
6th · 4-1-3 · GD +1
Away far trip
Stargate Charter School
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.28 1.38 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Real Colorado Academy
11th · 3-2-3 · GD +1
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex · grass
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.28 1.37 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD
Solar SC Academy
4th · 7-0-2 · GD +19
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.58 1.32 Upside
Sun Nov 8
TBD
SOLAR SC
15th · 3-1-5 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.44 1.32 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
SAFC
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.91 1.30 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
San Antonio City SC
18th · 1-2-5 · GD -12
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–1 2.08 1.34 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Dallas Texans
16th · 2-0-5 · GD -16
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–0 2.47 1.40 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth Red 7601 239+14 182.57 WWLWW -0.50 +0.17 94% 2.7
2 SAFC 7520 218+13 172.43 WWWDD +0.22 -0.29 95% 2.4
3 Lonestar ATX Red 8611 197+12 192.38 WDLWW -0.05 -0.13 92% 3.0
4 Solar SC Academy 9702 3011+19 212.33 WWWWW +0.01 -0.22 97% 2.3
5 Tulsa SC 11533 2415+9 181.64 WLWWD -0.05 -0.08 12% 6.1
6 Colorado Storm 8413 1110+1 131.63 LWLWD +0.15 -0.13 3% 8.7
7 RISE SC 8332 1613+3 121.50 WWDWD -0.24 +0.07 1% 9.7
8 FC Westlake 8332 1418-4 121.50 DDWLW +0.44 -0.34 1% 9.8
9 OK Energy FC Academy 12453 2217+5 171.42 LLDLD +0.09 -0.27 1% 8.5
10 DKSC 10424 2016+4 141.40 WDWDL -0.16 +0.11 1% 10.6
11 Real Colorado Academy 8323 1110+1 111.38 DLWLD +0.15 -0.13 1% 10.1
12 Sting 10415 1815+3 131.30 WDLLW -0.23 +0.19 0% 11.7
13 HTX 7223 1414+0 81.14 LDLWL +0.33 -0.22 1% 10.4
14 Albion Hurricanes FC 8233 1616+0 91.13 DLDDW +0.04 -0.12 0% 12.0
15 SOLAR SC 9315 1516-1 101.11 LLWLL -0.09 +0.03 0% 13.3
16 Dallas Texans 7205 622-16 60.86 LLWLL -0.08 +0.14 0% 18.0
17 Dallas Texans Academy 7124 1221-9 50.71 LLLDD +0.05 -0.01 0% 16.6
18 San Antonio City SC 8125 1628-12 50.63 LLWLD +0.53 -0.34 0% 15.7
19 FC Dallas Youth White 4013 210-8 10.25 LLDL -0.47 +0.19 0% 18.2
20 Lonestar ATX Royal 8008 236-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.52 -0.13 0% 20.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.