Lonestar ATX Red

ECNL Boys · Texas BU16 · 20 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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11th

3-4-2 record · 9 played

1.44 points per game

+2 goal diff · 13–11

WDDLWlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.4

-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Lonestar ATX Red
11th · 1.44 PPG

Solar SC Academy
5th · 1.89 PPG

OAK GROVE , Field 1 ↗ far trip

17% 22% 62%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.9 against · 0.72 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX Red	Solar SC Academy
Position	11th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	3-4-2	5-2-2
Points per game	1.44	1.89
Goals for / game	1.4	2.0
Goals against / game	1.2	0.8
Clean sheets	3	5
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W L D D W	L W D W W
Biggest win	2–0 vs DKSC	4–0 vs Real Colorado Academy
Worst loss	1–3 vs FC Dallas Youth Red	1–2 vs RISE SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.07	+0.94
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.10	-0.03

Common opponents: Colorado Storm — we 1–1; they 3–3. Real Colorado Academy — we 0–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Solar SC Academy score 2.0/game — well above the league's 1.3.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Real Colorado Academy.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 17%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at OAK GROVE .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Colorado Storm sit 10th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.44.
A point moves us above Colorado Storm on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Solar SC Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX Red – Solar SC Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.30 PPG	14th▼ down 3	14th▼ down 3	15th▼ down 4
Win 1.60 PPG	9th▲ up 2	10th▲ up 1	12th▼ down 1
Draw 1.40 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	13th▼ down 2
Loss 1.30 PPG	14th▼ down 3	14th▼ down 3	15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–1 loss we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

11.4 average finish

1st <1%
2nd <1%
3rd <1%
4th 1%
5th 1%
6th 2%
7th 4%
8th 5%
9th 9%
10th 11%
11th 13%
12th 13%
13th 16%
14th 13%
15th 9%
16th 2%
17th <1%
18th <1%
19th
20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.26 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	SOLAR SC	2.56 (+1.12)	1st (2.39)	36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	OK Energy FC Academy	2.17 (+0.73)	3rd (1.90)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3	RISE SC	2.00 (+0.56)	4th (1.88)	25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
4	Sting	1.90 (+0.46)	7th (1.69)	24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
5	Solar SC Academy	1.89 (+0.45)	2nd (1.95)	23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6	Real Colorado Academy	1.88 (+0.44)	5th (1.83)	23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7	FC Dallas Youth White	1.86 (+0.42)	6th (1.72)	23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8	SAFC	1.63 (+0.19)	8th (1.60)	18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9	Dallas Texans Academy	1.57 (+0.13)	9th (1.58)	A point next game
10	Colorado Storm	1.50 (+0.06)	10th (1.57)	A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX Red to Solar SC Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

4 even

14 favour them

-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 7th hardest of 20

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	Solar SC Academy 5th · 5-2-2 · GD +11	Away far trip OAK GROVE	●●●●● Very tough	17%	0–1	0.72	1.37	Upside
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	SOLAR SC 1st · 7-2-0 · GD +19	Away far trip Beacon Park & Z	●●●●● Very tough	10%	0–2	0.48	1.29	Upside
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM	Dallas Texans 18th · 1-0-6 · GD -11	Away far trip Beacon Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	1–0	1.94	1.34	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM	Dallas Texans Academy 9th · 3-2-2 · GD +2	Away far trip Beacon Park	●●●●○ Tough	28%	0–1	1.12	1.33	Upside
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	San Antonio City SC 19th · 0-1-7 · GD -19	Away far trip Specht Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	1–0	2.35	1.40	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM	SAFC 8th · 3-4-1 · GD +3	Away far trip STAR Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.12	1.38	Upside
Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM	HTX 14th · 3-2-3 · GD -4	Home Round Rock MultiPurpose Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.75	1.40	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	FC Westlake 13th · 3-2-3 · GD -3	Away	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.48	1.41	Upside
Sat May 1 11:00 AM	Albion Hurricanes FC 15th · 3-0-5 · GD -1	Home Round Rock MultiPurpose Complex	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–0	1.49	1.41	Upside
Sun May 2 11:00 AM	RISE SC 3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +5	Home Round Rock MultiPurpose Complex	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.18	1.40	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SOLAR SC

+19

2.56

DWWWW

-0.17

-0.02

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Westlake (13th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX (14th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Dallas Texans (18th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	SAFC (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX Royal · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX Red · Sat Oct 31 at Solar SC Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	4–0	97%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Solar SC Academy (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting (4th)	2–0	63%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	DKSC (17th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Tulsa SC (16th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–0	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Academy

+11

2.17

WWWLL

-0.27

+0.39

55%

4.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Colorado Storm (10th)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	SAFC (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	San Antonio City SC (19th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	3–2
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	HTX (14th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 6	at	DKSC (17th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Sting (4th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans · Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Academy · Sun Nov 1 at FC Dallas Youth White See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans (18th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC

2.00

WWWWD

+0.09

-0.15

53%

4.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans (18th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 6	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Solar SC Academy (5th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs DKSC · Sat Nov 7 vs OK Energy FC Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Tulsa SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	DKSC (17th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX (14th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake (13th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat May 1	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	2–0	85%
·	Sun May 2	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat May 8	vs	SAFC (8th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Sting (4th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting

1.90

WLLWW

-0.32

+0.31

19%

7.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	HTX (14th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dallas Texans (18th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	DKSC (17th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	6–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sat Oct 31 at Real Colorado Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Colorado Storm See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–0	42%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Solar SC Academy (5th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	San Antonio City SC (19th)	2–0	85%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	SAFC (8th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–0	44%
·	Sat May 15	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Solar SC Academy

+11

1.89

WWDWL

-0.03

-0.08

69%

3.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	HTX (14th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake (13th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	SAFC (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX Red · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX Royal · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR SC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	1–0	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	3–0	94%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	DKSC (17th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sting (4th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Tulsa SC (16th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	1–1	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun May 9	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	2–0	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Academy

1.88

LLLWW

+0.14

-0.14

42%

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	6–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth White · Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Sting See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sting (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	DKSC (17th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–0	44%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Dallas Texans (18th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	SAFC (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Fri Jan 15	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Westlake (13th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	HTX (14th)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth White

1.86

LDWWL

-0.33

+0.15

27%

6.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC (17th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Real Colorado Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Colorado Storm · Sun Nov 1 vs OK Energy FC Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SAFC (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–0	48%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun May 2	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	1–1	21%
·	Sat May 8	vs	HTX (14th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun May 9	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	1–0	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC

1.63

DWDLW

-0.02

-0.05

11%

8.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Antonio City SC (19th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 11	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Tulsa SC (16th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 6	at	HTX (14th)	4–4
W	Sat Sep 5	at	FC Westlake (13th)	2–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth White · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth Red · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar ATX Royal See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	2–0	87%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	DKSC (17th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Sting (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 8	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Academy

1.57

LWWWD

+0.08

-0.08

8.9

D	Sun Oct 18	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	DKSC (17th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX Royal See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tulsa SC (16th)	1–0	55%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	1–0	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	HTX (14th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	0–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SAFC (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	San Antonio City SC (19th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun May 2	at	Sting (4th)	0–1	28%
·	Sun May 9	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–1	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm

1.50

LDDWW

+0.14

-0.12

10%

8.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	4–2
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Solar SC Academy (5th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	RISE SC (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Red · Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth White · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC (17th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sting (4th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Dallas Texans (18th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	SAFC (8th)	1–1	34%
·	Fri Jan 15	at	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	FC Westlake (13th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	HTX (14th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun May 2	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	2–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX Red

1.44

WDDLW

-0.10

+0.05

11.4

W	Thu Oct 15	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	DKSC (17th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sting (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 5	at	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Solar SC Academy · Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR SC · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	0–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	1–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	SAFC (8th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	HTX (14th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Westlake (13th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–0	40%
·	Sun May 2	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Red

1.38

LWWLD

-0.19

+0.11

11.0

D	Sun Oct 18	at	DKSC (17th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sting (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Colorado Storm · Sun Oct 25 vs Real Colorado Academy · Sat Nov 7 at San Antonio City SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SAFC (8th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Tulsa SC (16th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–0	42%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2	16%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat May 8	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun May 9	vs	HTX (14th)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake

-3

1.38

DWWLL

+0.19

-0.08

12.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Sting (4th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	DKSC (17th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Tulsa SC (16th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	San Antonio City SC (19th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	SAFC (8th)	1–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at HTX · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Dallas Texans See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	HTX (14th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	0–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	0–1	24%
·	Sun May 9	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	0–1	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX

-4

1.38

WWLLW

+0.19

-0.08

12.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	at	DKSC (17th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Tulsa SC (16th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 6	vs	SAFC (8th)	4–4
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	San Antonio City SC (19th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake · Sat Nov 7 at Dallas Texans See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun May 9	at	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albion Hurricanes FC

-1

1.13

WLLLW

+0.38

-0.32

11.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dallas Texans (18th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SAFC (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 5	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs DKSC · Sun Oct 4 vs Sting · Sat Oct 24 at HTX See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	DKSC (17th)	1–0	47%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Sting (4th)	0–1	28%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	HTX (14th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	1–0	65%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	1–0	55%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake (13th)	1–0	36%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	0–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat May 1	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	0–1	30%
·	Sun May 2	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	1–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tulsa SC

-10

0.82

WDWLL

-0.20

+0.36

17.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Storm (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	0–6
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	San Antonio City SC (19th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	SAFC (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	HTX (14th)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Sting (4th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 5	at	DKSC (17th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans · Sat Nov 7 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Dallas Texans (18th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	RISE SC (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC

-5

0.80

LLWLD

-0.11

+0.18

16.4

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	HTX (14th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 6	vs	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 4 at RISE SC · Sat Oct 31 at Colorado Storm See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	RISE SC (3rd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Colorado Storm (10th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SAFC (8th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Antonio City SC (19th)	1–0	62%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Dallas Texans (18th)	1–0	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans

-11

0.43

LLLLL

+0.48

-0.21

17.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX Red See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Tulsa SC (16th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	1–0	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	HTX (14th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Colorado Storm (10th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Antonio City SC (19th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	SAFC (8th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun May 2	at	DKSC (17th)	0–1	24%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–2	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC

-19

0.13

LLLLL

+0.30

-0.10

19.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	SAFC (8th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Tulsa SC (16th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 6	at	FC Westlake (13th)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 5	at	HTX (14th)	0–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Red · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth White See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	0–1	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	0–1	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (20th)	0–0	39%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sting (4th)	0–2	4%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	DKSC (17th)	0–1	12%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Colorado Storm (10th)	0–2	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX Royal

-24

0.00

LLLLL

+0.14

+0.05

19.8

L	Thu Oct 15	at	Lonestar ATX Red (11th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Dallas Youth White (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Red (12th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Tulsa SC (16th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	OK Energy FC Academy (2nd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting (4th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC (17th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Colorado Storm (10th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Real Colorado Academy (6th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR SC · Sun Oct 25 at Solar SC Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–4	0%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Solar SC Academy (5th)	0–3	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans Academy (9th)	0–2	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Dallas Texans (18th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SAFC (8th)	0–2	3%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	San Antonio City SC (19th)	0–0	27%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Westlake (13th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	HTX (14th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat May 1	vs	RISE SC (3rd)	0–2	4%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (15th)	0–1	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.