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FC Dallas Youth White

ECNL Boys · Texas BU16 · 20 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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7th
4-1-2 record · 7 played
1.86 points per game
+5 goal diff · 12–7
LDWWLlast 5
28% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.8
-0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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FC Dallas Youth White
7th · 1.86 PPG
vs
Real Colorado Academy
6th · 1.88 PPG

Toyota Soccer Center, Field 12 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.3 against · 1.41 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth WhiteReal Colorado Academy
Position7th6th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-25-0-3
Points per game1.861.88
Goals for / game1.71.6
Goals against / game1.01.0
Clean sheets24
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)L W W D LW W L L L
Biggest win3–0 at Lonestar ATX Royal6–0 vs Tulsa SC
Worst loss1–2 at FC Dallas Youth Red0–4 at Solar SC Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.43+0.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.33+0.14

Common opponents: Lonestar ATX Red — we 2–2; they 1–0. Lonestar ATX Royal — we 3–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Sting.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 38%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Real Colorado Academy sit 6th on 1.88 PPG; we are on 1.86.

    A point moves us above Real Colorado Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth White – Real Colorado Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.75 PPG
7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 8th▼ down 1
Win
2.00 PPG
3rd▲ up 4 4th▲ up 3 4th▲ up 3
Draw
1.75 PPG
7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 8th▼ down 1
Loss
1.63 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
28% top 4
72% below the top 4
6.8 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 7%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 11%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 11%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 3%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 2.56 (+0.70) 1st (2.39) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 OK Energy FC Academy 2.17 (+0.31) 3rd (1.90) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 RISE SC 2.00 (+0.14) 4th (1.88) Win next game
4 Sting 1.90 (+0.04) 7th (1.69) A point next game
5 Solar SC Academy 1.89 (+0.03) 2nd (1.95) A point next game
6 Real Colorado Academy 1.88 (+0.02) 5th (1.83) A point next game

How the results connect

25 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth White to Real Colorado Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
4 even
13 favour them
-1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 0–1 3–0 1–2 1–0 1–2 2–0 3–1 1–0 1–1 0–1 2–1 1–0 3–1 0–3 2–0 1–3 0–1 2–2 0–2 FC Dallas Youth Whi… 7th Lonestar ATX Red 11th Lonestar ATX Royal 20th FC Dallas Youth Red 12th Dallas Texans Acade… 9th DKSC 17th Dallas Texans 18th Sting 4th RISE SC 3rd SOLAR SC 1st Real Colorado Acade… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 5th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
Real Colorado Academy
6th · 5-0-3 · GD +5
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.41 1.80 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Colorado Storm
10th · 3-3-2 · GD +3
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.65 1.78 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
OK Energy FC Academy
2nd · 8-2-2 · GD +11
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.50 1.76 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
TBD
SAFC
8th · 3-4-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.36 1.72 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
San Antonio City SC
19th · 0-1-7 · GD -19
Away far trip
Specht Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
2–0 2.52 1.79 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
03:00 PM
Tulsa SC
16th · 2-3-6 · GD -10
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–0 2.27 1.82 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
03:00 PM
RISE SC
3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.42 1.79 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
Albion Hurricanes FC
15th · 3-0-5 · GD -1
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–0 1.71 1.79 Swing game
Sat May 1
01:00 PM
Solar SC Academy
5th · 5-2-2 · GD +11
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.14 1.75 Upside
Sun May 2
01:00 PM
SOLAR SC
1st · 7-2-0 · GD +19
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–1 0.84 1.69 Upside
Sat May 8
03:00 PM
HTX
14th · 3-2-3 · GD -4
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.01 1.71 Swing game
Sun May 9
01:00 PM
FC Westlake
13th · 3-2-3 · GD -3
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
1–0 1.94 1.72 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 9720 256+19 232.56 DWWWW -0.17 -0.02 100% 1.2
2 OK Energy FC Academy 12822 2716+11 262.17 WWWLL -0.27 +0.39 54% 4.6
3 RISE SC 8512 138+5 162.00 WWWWD +0.09 -0.15 50% 5.0
4 Sting 10613 189+9 191.90 WLLWW -0.32 +0.31 19% 7.1
5 Solar SC Academy 9522 187+11 171.89 WWDWL -0.03 -0.08 72% 3.8
6 Real Colorado Academy 8503 138+5 151.88 LLLWW +0.14 -0.14 42% 5.6
7 FC Dallas Youth White 7412 127+5 131.86 LDWWL -0.33 +0.15 28% 6.8
8 SAFC 8341 1310+3 131.63 DWDLW -0.02 -0.05 10% 8.7
9 Dallas Texans Academy 7322 86+2 111.57 LWWWD +0.08 -0.08 10% 8.8
10 Colorado Storm 8332 1613+3 121.50 LDDWW +0.14 -0.12 9% 9.1
11 Lonestar ATX Red 9342 1311+2 131.44 WDDLW -0.10 +0.05 1% 11.4
12 FC Dallas Youth Red 8323 1210+2 111.38 LWWLD -0.19 +0.11 3% 10.9
13 FC Westlake 8323 811-3 111.38 DWWLL +0.19 -0.08 1% 12.8
14 HTX 8323 1115-4 111.38 WWLLW +0.19 -0.08 0% 12.8
15 Albion Hurricanes FC 8305 78-1 91.13 WLLLW +0.38 -0.32 1% 12.0
16 Tulsa SC 11236 1020-10 90.82 WDWLL -0.20 +0.36 0% 17.1
17 DKSC 10226 813-5 80.80 LLWLD -0.11 +0.18 0% 16.4
18 Dallas Texans 7106 415-11 30.43 LLLLL +0.48 -0.21 0% 17.2
19 San Antonio City SC 8017 120-19 10.13 LLLLL +0.30 -0.10 0% 19.1
20 Lonestar ATX Royal 9009 226-24 00.00 LLLLL +0.14 +0.05 0% 19.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.