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Beach Futbol Club

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU15 · 13 teams · Beach Futbol Club (all teams)

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7th
1-1-1 record · 3 played
1.33 points per game
-2 goal diff · 2–4
LWDlast 3
11% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.7
+0.56 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:15 PM

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Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1.33 PPG
at
Rebels SC
11th · 1.00 PPG

Monte Vista High School, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.3 against · 1.21 expected points)

Season so farBeach Futbol ClubRebels SC
Position7th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-11-1-2
Points per game1.331.00
Goals for / game0.71.0
Goals against / game1.31.5
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)D W LD L W L
Biggest win2–1 vs Rebels SC2–0 vs LAFC
Worst loss0–3 vs San Diego Surf1–4 at LA Breakers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.19-0.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.56+0.49

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 2–1 vs Rebels SC (W)

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs San Diego Surf, 0–0 at San Diego Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (28%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:15 PM at Monte Vista High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Pateadores Soccer Club sit 6th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above Pateadores Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach Futbol Club – Rebels SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.25 PPG
8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 12th▼ down 5
Win
1.75 PPG
5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2 7th— holds
Draw
1.25 PPG
8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 12th▼ down 5
Loss
1.00 PPG
11th▼ down 4 9th▼ down 2 13th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
11% top 4
89% below the top 4
7.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 13%
  10. 10th 12%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.60 (+1.27) 1st (2.32) 59 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
2 LA Breakers FC 1.83 (+0.50) 4th (1.54) 40 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 LAFC 1.80 (+0.47) 3rd (1.77) 40 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 San Diego Surf 1.75 (+0.42) 2nd (1.99) Win next game
5 CDA Slammers FC 1.67 (+0.34) 6th (1.32) A point next game
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.40 (+0.07) 5th (1.45) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Beach Futbol Club to Rebels SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 favour them
-1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 0–0 0–1 0–0 0–3 Beach Futbol Club 7th San Diego Surf 4th Legends FC 1st Rebels SC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 29 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
09:00 AM
no score posted
SDSC Surf
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Home
El Camino College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–0 1.82 1.45 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
04:15 PM
Rebels SC
11th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.21 1.41 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Home
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–0 1.68 1.45 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
LAFC
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Home
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–1 1.00 1.39 Upside
Sat Nov 7
02:30 PM
West Coast FC
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Away far trip
Lake Forest Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.55 1.41 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM
SDSC Surf
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
Westview High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.59 1.43 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-1-2 · GD +0
Home
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.33 1.42 Upside
Sun Nov 22
12:15 PM
LA Breakers FC
2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +3
Home
El Camino College
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.27 1.41 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:30 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-1-2 · GD +0
Away far trip
Vanguard University · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.08 1.38 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
8th · 3-1-4 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 1.36 Upside
Sat Apr 3
10:00 AM
West Coast FC
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Home
El Camino College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.83 1.40 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.46 1.40 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +0
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 1.39 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LAFC
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.79 1.35 Upside
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM
Legends FC
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–1 0.52 1.31 Upside
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
8th · 3-1-4 · GD -1
Home
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.45 1.31 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Away
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.21 1.31 Upside
Sat May 8
11:00 AM
CDA Slammers FC
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +0
Home
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.45 1.32 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
LA Breakers FC
2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 1.30 Upside
Sat May 22
11:00 AM
Legends FC
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Home
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–1 0.67 1.27 Upside
Sat May 29
11:00 AM
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Home
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.48 1.28 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 5410 101+9 132.60 WWWDW +0.14 -0.16 100% 1.2
2 LA Breakers FC 6321 1613+3 111.83 LWWWD -0.24 +0.06 45% 5.2
3 LAFC 5302 115+6 91.80 WWLWL -0.18 -0.01 82% 3.4
4 San Diego Surf 4211 71+6 71.75 WLWD +0.15 -0.12 97% 2.3
5 CDA Slammers FC 6312 1313+0 101.67 LWLWD -0.46 +0.18 12% 7.3
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 5212 1010+0 71.40 DLLWW +0.17 -0.05 29% 6.0
7 Beach Futbol Club 3111 24-2 41.33 LWD +0.56 -0.06 11% 7.7
8 LV Heat Surf SC 8314 1617-1 101.25 LDWLL -0.12 +0.09 8% 7.7
9 West Coast FC 5203 916-7 61.20 LLWLW -0.01 +0.10 0% 11.0
10 Sporting California USA 4112 99+0 41.00 WDLL -0.56 +0.13 5% 8.8
11 Rebels SC 4112 46-2 41.00 LWLD +0.49 -0.08 10% 7.6
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6123 611-5 50.83 LLDLW +0.09 +0.03 0% 10.9
13 SDSC Surf 5104 411-7 30.60 LLWLL +0.27 +0.01 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.