TableChase Clubs

LA Breakers FC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU15 · 13 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)

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2nd
3-2-1 record · 6 played
1.83 points per game
+3 goal diff · 16–13
LWWWDlast 5
42% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3
-0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM

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LA Breakers FC
2nd · 1.83 PPG
at
SDSC Surf
13th · 0.60 PPG

Ryan Park, Field 12 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.5 against · 1.94 expected points)

Season so farLA Breakers FCSDSC Surf
Position2nd13th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-11-0-4
Points per game1.830.60
Goals for / game2.70.8
Goals against / game2.22.2
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)D W W W LL L W L L
Biggest win4–1 vs Rebels SC1–0 at LV Heat Surf SC
Worst loss2–6 vs LV Heat Surf SC2–5 at CDA Slammers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.22-0.77
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.24+0.27

Common opponents: LV Heat Surf SC — we 2–6; they 1–0. CDA Slammers FC — we 3–3; they 2–5, 0–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    SDSC Surf average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 2 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 58% / draw 19% / loss 23%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Ryan Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SDSC Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers FC – SDSC Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2
Win
2.00 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2
Draw
1.71 PPG
4th▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 1 6th▼ down 4
Loss
1.57 PPG
5th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
42% top 4
58% below the top 4
5.3 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 16%
  4. 4th 23%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.60 (+0.77) 1st (2.32) 52 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection

How the results connect

19 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link LA Breakers FC to SDSC Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
2 even
4 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 1–0 5–2 2–6 0–1 2–0 0–3 2–1 1–1 2–3 1–1 5–1 4–2 1–4 3–0 1–0 LA Breakers FC 2nd CDA Slammers FC 5th LV Heat Surf SC 8th Legends FC Del Mar 12th Pateadores Soccer C… 6th LAFC 3rd Legends FC 1st SDSC Surf 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 29 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
SDSC Surf
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
Ryan Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.94 1.85 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
San Diego Surf
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.70 1.71 Upside
Sun Nov 22
12:15 PM
Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1-1-1 · GD -2
Away far trip
El Camino College
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.51 1.68 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:15 PM
San Diego Surf
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.61 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.50 1.60 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
CDA Slammers FC
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +0
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 1.59 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-1-2 · GD +0
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.64 1.59 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
SDSC Surf
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.20 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
3–2 1.84 1.65 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
05:30 PM
Rebels SC
11th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.47 1.64 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
LAFC
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.60 Upside
Sun May 2
11:00 AM
West Coast FC
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 1.63 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
Legends FC
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.72 1.58 Upside
Sun May 9
06:00 PM
West Coast FC
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Away far trip
Saddleback College
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.93 1.60 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1-1-1 · GD -2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.79 1.61 Swing game
Sun May 16
01:00 PM
Legends FC
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.53 1.56 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
LV Heat Surf SC
8th · 3-1-4 · GD -1
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 1.56 Swing game
Sat Jun 5
11:00 AM
LAFC
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.20 1.54 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 5410 101+9 132.60 WWWDW +0.14 -0.16 100% 1.2
2 LA Breakers FC 6321 1613+3 111.83 LWWWD -0.24 +0.06 42% 5.3
3 LAFC 5302 115+6 91.80 WWLWL -0.18 -0.01 83% 3.4
4 San Diego Surf 4211 71+6 71.75 WLWD +0.15 -0.12 96% 2.3
5 CDA Slammers FC 6312 1313+0 101.67 LWLWD -0.46 +0.18 14% 7.2
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 5212 1010+0 71.40 DLLWW +0.17 -0.05 28% 6.0
7 Beach Futbol Club 3111 24-2 41.33 LWD +0.56 -0.06 12% 7.7
8 LV Heat Surf SC 8314 1617-1 101.25 LDWLL -0.12 +0.09 7% 7.8
9 West Coast FC 5203 916-7 61.20 LLWLW -0.01 +0.10 1% 11.0
10 Sporting California USA 4112 99+0 41.00 WDLL -0.56 +0.13 5% 8.7
11 Rebels SC 4112 46-2 41.00 LWLD +0.49 -0.08 11% 7.7
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6123 611-5 50.83 LLDLW +0.09 +0.03 0% 10.9
13 SDSC Surf 5104 411-7 30.60 LLWLL +0.27 +0.01 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.