TableChase Clubs

Rebels SC

ECNL Boys · Southwest BU15 · 13 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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11th
1-1-2 record · 4 played
1.00 points per game
-2 goal diff · 4–6
LWLDlast 4
11% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.7
+0.49 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:15 PM

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Rebels SC
11th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1.33 PPG

Monte Vista High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.1 against · 1.51 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCBeach Futbol Club
Position11th7th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-21-1-1
Points per game1.001.33
Goals for / game1.00.7
Goals against / game1.51.3
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)D L W LD W L
Biggest win2–0 vs LAFC2–1 vs Rebels SC
Worst loss1–4 at LA Breakers FC0–3 vs San Diego Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.13-0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.49+0.56

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–2 at Beach Futbol Club (L)

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Beach Futbol Club average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 41%; a draw (28%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Sporting California USA sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Sporting California USA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Beach Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Beach Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
11th— holds 9th▲ up 2 13th▼ down 2
Win
1.40 PPG
7th▲ up 4 7th▲ up 4 10th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
11th— holds 9th▲ up 2 13th▼ down 2
Loss
0.80 PPG
12th▼ down 1 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
11% top 4
89% below the top 4
7.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 10%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 13%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Legends FC 2.60 (+1.60) 1st (2.32) 59 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
2 LA Breakers FC 1.83 (+0.83) 4th (1.54) 40 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 LAFC 1.80 (+0.80) 3rd (1.77) 40 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 San Diego Surf 1.75 (+0.75) 2nd (1.99) 38 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
5 CDA Slammers FC 1.67 (+0.67) 6th (1.32) 37 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.40 (+0.40) 5th (1.45) Win next game
7 Beach Futbol Club 1.33 (+0.33) 8th (1.28) A point next game
8 LV Heat Surf SC 1.25 (+0.25) 9th (1.27) A point next game
9 West Coast FC 1.20 (+0.20) 11th (0.96) A point next game
10 Sporting California USA 1.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.17) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Beach Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 0–0 1–0 0–0 3–0 Rebels SC 11th Legends FC 1st San Diego Surf 4th Beach Futbol Club 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Sep 29 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 11th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:15 PM
Beach Futbol Club
7th · 1-1-1 · GD -2
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.51 1.10 Upside
Sun Oct 25
03:15 PM
CDA Slammers FC
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +0
Away far trip
Santiago High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.23 1.12 Upside
Sat Oct 31
02:45 PM
LAFC
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–1 0.82 1.08 Upside
Sun Nov 1
08:30 AM
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.53 1.14 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:45 AM
CDA Slammers FC
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +0
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.50 1.18 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
8th · 3-1-4 · GD -1
Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.23 1.18 Upside
Tue Nov 24
10:30 AM
SDSC Surf
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–0 1.86 1.24 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
03:30 PM
San Diego Surf
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.84 1.21 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-1-2 · GD +0
Away
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.12 1.20 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Sporting California USA
10th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.26 1.21 Upside
Sat Apr 10
11:45 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–0 1.73 1.24 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM
San Diego Surf
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–1 0.67 1.21 Upside
Sun Apr 18
05:30 PM
LA Breakers FC
2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +3
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.32 1.21 Upside
Sat Apr 24
11:45 AM
West Coast FC
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.88 1.25 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
02:00 PM
Legends FC
1st · 4-1-0 · GD +9
Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–1 0.69 1.22 Upside
Sat May 1
11:00 AM
SDSC Surf
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.63 1.24 Swing game
Sat May 8
01:30 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 1-2-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
San Dieguito Academy
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.50 1.25 Upside
Sat May 15
01:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
6th · 2-1-2 · GD +0
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.37 1.26 Upside
Sun May 16
09:00 AM
LV Heat Surf SC
8th · 3-1-4 · GD -1
Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.50 1.27 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
West Coast FC
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.60 1.28 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Legends FC 5410 101+9 132.60 WWWDW +0.14 -0.16 100% 1.2
2 LA Breakers FC 6321 1613+3 111.83 LWWWD -0.24 +0.06 44% 5.2
3 LAFC 5302 115+6 91.80 WWLWL -0.18 -0.01 84% 3.4
4 San Diego Surf 4211 71+6 71.75 WLWD +0.15 -0.12 97% 2.3
5 CDA Slammers FC 6312 1313+0 101.67 LWLWD -0.46 +0.18 12% 7.3
6 Pateadores Soccer Club 5212 1010+0 71.40 DLLWW +0.17 -0.05 28% 6.1
7 Beach Futbol Club 3111 24-2 41.33 LWD +0.56 -0.06 10% 7.8
8 LV Heat Surf SC 8314 1617-1 101.25 LDWLL -0.12 +0.09 7% 7.7
9 West Coast FC 5203 916-7 61.20 LLWLW -0.01 +0.10 1% 10.9
10 Sporting California USA 4112 99+0 41.00 WDLL -0.56 +0.13 5% 8.8
11 Rebels SC 4112 46-2 41.00 LWLD +0.49 -0.08 11% 7.7
12 Legends FC Del Mar 6123 611-5 50.83 LLDLW +0.09 +0.03 0% 10.8
13 SDSC Surf 5104 411-7 30.60 LLWLL +0.27 +0.01 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.