Wilmington Hammerheads

ECNL Boys · Mid-Atlantic BU16 · 13 teams · Wilmington Hammerheads (all teams)

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5th

1-0-1 record · 2 played

1.50 points per game

+2 goal diff · 4–2

LWlast 2

52% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8

-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Jan 30, 02:00 PM

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Wilmington Hammerheads
5th · 1.50 PPG

NCFC Youth
1st · 3.00 PPG

NCINO Sports Park, Field 7 ↗

40% 26% 34%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.3 against · 1.45 expected points)

Season so far	Wilmington Hammerheads	NCFC Youth
Position	5th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-1	2-0-0
Points per game	1.50	3.00
Goals for / game	2.0	1.5
Goals against / game	1.0	0.5
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W L	W W
Biggest win	3–0 vs Fairfax Virginia Union	1–0 vs Fairfax Virginia Union
Worst loss	1–2 vs Arlington Soccer Association	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.36	+0.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.10	-0.10

Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 1–2; they 2–1. Fairfax Virginia Union — we 3–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

Hard to break down
NCFC Youth concede only 0.5/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 40%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Richmond United sit 4th on 1.57 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above Richmond United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NCFC Youth game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wilmington Hammerheads – NCFC Youth) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Jan 25 – Sun Jan 31); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.33 PPG	7th▼ down 2	7th▼ down 2	9th▼ down 4
Win 2.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 3	2nd▲ up 3	3rd▲ up 2
Draw 1.33 PPG	7th▼ down 2	7th▼ down 2	9th▼ down 4
Loss 1.00 PPG	8th▼ down 3	8th▼ down 3	9th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we fall to at least 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st

52% top 4

48% below the top 4

4.8 average finish

1st 6%
2nd 13%
3rd 16%
4th 16%
5th 14%
6th 11%
7th 9%
8th 6%
9th 4%
10th 3%
11th 2%
12th 1%
13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	NCFC Youth	3.00 (+1.50)	2nd (1.79)	51 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
2	Skyline Elite	2.67 (+1.17)	1st (2.13)	46 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3	NCFC Youth Academy	1.75 (+0.25)	3rd (1.78)	A point next game
4	Richmond United	1.57 (+0.07)	6th (1.48)	A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Wilmington Hammerheads to NCFC Youth through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

2 favour them

+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 8th hardest of 13

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Jan 30 02:00 PM	NCFC Youth 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +2	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.45	1.48	Upside
Sat Feb 13 11:00 AM	Richmond United 4th · 3-2-2 · GD +2	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.64	1.52	Swing game
Sun Feb 14 09:00 AM	Beach FC 11th · 1-2-4 · GD -8	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–0	2.24	1.67	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 12:00 PM	NCFC Youth 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +2	Away far trip WRAL	●●●●○ Tough	32%	1–1	1.21	1.59	Upside
Sun Feb 28 TBD	Charlotte SA 6th · 1-0-1 · GD -2	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.84	1.63	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Charlotte SA Academy 8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.43	1.60	Upside
Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM	Highland FC 13th · 0-1-1 · GD -2	Away far trip Buncombe County Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–1	1.74	1.62	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 01:00 PM	Charlotte SA 6th · 1-0-1 · GD -2	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.11	1.67	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM	NCFC Youth Academy 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +4	Away far trip WRAL	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.12	1.62	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	NC Fusion 12th · 0-1-1 · GD -1	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–1	1.71	1.62	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Skyline Elite 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +6	Away	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–2	1.10	1.58	Upside
Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM	VDA 10th · 1-2-3 · GD +0	Away far trip Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC)	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.45	1.57	Upside
Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM	Charlotte SA Academy 8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–1	1.69	1.58	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 09:00 AM	Highland FC 13th · 0-1-1 · GD -2	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	58%	1–0	1.96	1.61	Swing game
Sat May 8 12:00 PM	NCFC Youth Academy 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +4	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.36	1.59	Upside
Sun May 9 11:00 AM	NC Fusion 12th · 0-1-1 · GD -1	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.96	1.61	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

NCFC Youth

3.00

-0.10

-0.02

72%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–0

Next: Sun Jan 24 at NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Jan 30 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Feb 6 at Charlotte SA See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Jan 24	at	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Beach FC (11th)	1–0	67%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Richmond United (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Highland FC (13th)	1–0	49%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	VDA (10th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Highland FC (13th)	1–0	56%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 8	at	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Skyline Elite

2.67

DWWWW

-0.20

-0.02

97%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	4–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Highland FC (13th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	VDA (10th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Beach FC (11th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Richmond United (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Beach FC (11th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	NC Fusion (12th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Richmond United (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	VDA (10th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth Academy

1.75

WLWD

+0.13

-0.10

75%

3.5

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Richmond United (4th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Skyline Elite · Sat Oct 31 at VDA · Sun Jan 17 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	VDA (10th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Beach FC (11th)	2–0	64%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Highland FC (13th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NC Fusion (12th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Highland FC (13th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat May 8	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United

1.57

DLDWW

-0.20

+0.08

27%

5.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	NC Fusion (12th)	2–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Beach FC (11th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	VDA (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 at Skyline Elite · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Beach FC (11th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	VDA (10th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wilmington Hammerheads

1.50

-0.10

-0.02

52%

4.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–2

Next: Sat Jan 30 vs NCFC Youth · Sat Feb 13 vs Richmond United · Sun Feb 14 vs Beach FC See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Richmond United (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Beach FC (11th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	VDA (10th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Highland FC (13th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat May 8	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun May 9	vs	NC Fusion (12th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA

-2

1.50

-0.32

+0.12

9.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Richmond United (4th)	1–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Beach FC (11th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sun Nov 22 vs Highland FC · Sat Jan 16 vs VDA See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	VDA (10th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	NC Fusion (12th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NC Fusion (12th)	2–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat May 1	at	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

1.38

LLDWL

+0.13

-0.16

31%

5.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Beach FC (11th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Skyline Elite (2nd)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	VDA (10th)	2–1

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Jan 9 at VDA · Sun Jan 24 at Skyline Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	VDA (10th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Richmond United (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Beach FC (11th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	NC Fusion (12th)	2–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA Academy

1.25

WDDL

+0.45

-0.13

29%

6.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Skyline Elite (2nd)	3–4
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	VDA (10th)	0–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	3–2

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 at Highland FC · Sun Jan 24 vs Charlotte SA See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–0	52%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Beach FC (11th)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Richmond United (4th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fairfax Virginia Union

-4

1.00

LWWLL

+0.15

-0.03

9.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Beach FC (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Richmond United (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at VDA · Sun Nov 8 at Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Dec 13 vs Skyline Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	VDA (10th)	0–1	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Beach FC (11th)	1–0	48%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Richmond United (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	VDA (10th)	0–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Charlotte SA (6th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VDA

0.83

LWLDD

-0.01

8.3

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Highland FC (13th)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Skyline Elite (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Beach FC (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Richmond United (4th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Oct 31 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Richmond United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–0	48%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Richmond United (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Beach FC (11th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–0	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach FC

-8

0.71

DWLLD

-0.04

+0.17

12.2

D	Sun Oct 18	at	NC Fusion (12th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Richmond United (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	VDA (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 at Skyline Elite · Sun Nov 8 at VDA See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Richmond United (4th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Skyline Elite (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	VDA (10th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NC Fusion

-1

0.50

-0.32

+0.09

9.7

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Beach FC (11th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Richmond United (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Jan 16 vs Skyline Elite · Sun Jan 17 vs VDA · Sat Jan 30 vs NCFC Youth Academy See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Skyline Elite (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	VDA (10th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Charlotte SA (6th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	1–2	38%
·	Sat May 8	vs	NCFC Youth (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sun May 9	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Highland FC (13th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Highland FC

-2

0.50

+0.35

+0.02

10.0

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	VDA (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Skyline Elite (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sun Nov 22 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sat Feb 13 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Charlotte SA (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (9th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (7th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NCFC Youth (1st)	0–1	24%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Richmond United (4th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Beach FC (11th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA Academy (8th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (3rd)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NCFC Youth (1st)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Charlotte SA (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat May 15	at	NC Fusion (12th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.