VDA
ECNL Boys · Mid-Atlantic BU16 · 13 teams · Virginia Development Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM
Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC), Field 8 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.3 for, 0.8 against · 1.72 expected points)
| Season so far | VDA | Fairfax Virginia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-3 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per game | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | D D L W L | L L W W L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Beach FC | 3–0 at Beach FC |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Arlington Soccer Association | 0–3 vs Arlington Soccer Association |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.03 | -0.36 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.01 | +0.15 |
Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 1–2; they 0–3. Richmond United — we 2–3; they 1–0. Beach FC — we 3–0; they 3–0. Skyline Elite — we 0–1; they 1–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Skyline Elite, 0–0 at Charlotte SA Academy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 28% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Fairfax Virginia Union sit 9th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.83.A point moves us above Fairfax Virginia Union on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Fairfax Virginia Union game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VDA – Fairfax Virginia Union) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.14 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.14 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.86 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.71 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 13%
- 8th 16%
- 9th 16%
- 10th 12%
- 11th 11%
- 12th 8%
- 13th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.24 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NCFC Youth | 3.00 (+2.17) | 2nd (1.79) | 46 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 2 | Skyline Elite | 2.67 (+1.84) | 1st (2.13) | 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 3 | NCFC Youth Academy | 1.75 (+0.92) | 3rd (1.78) | 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 4 | Richmond United | 1.57 (+0.74) | 6th (1.48) | 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 5 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 1.50 (+0.67) | 4th (1.61) | 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | Charlotte SA | 1.50 (+0.67) | 10th (1.07) | 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 7 | Arlington Soccer Association | 1.38 (+0.55) | 5th (1.50) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 8 | Charlotte SA Academy | 1.25 (+0.42) | 7th (1.46) | 17 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 9 | Fairfax Virginia Union | 1.00 (+0.17) | 9th (1.10) | A point next game |
How the results connect
18 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link VDA to Fairfax Virginia Union through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 6th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Fairfax Virginia Union 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -4 |
Home Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–0 | 1.72 | 0.96 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Academy 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home Long Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
Richmond United 4th · 3-2-2 · GD +2 |
Home Long Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Beach FC 11th · 1-2-4 · GD -8 |
Home Howison Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
1–0 | 1.99 | 1.13 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 9 12:00 PM |
Arlington Soccer Association 7th · 3-2-3 · GD +1 |
Home Howison Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 TBD |
Charlotte SA 6th · 1-0-1 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.57 | 1.19 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 17 TBD |
NC Fusion 12th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.46 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Skyline Elite 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 TBD |
Fairfax Virginia Union 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–0 | 1.50 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM |
NCFC Youth 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +2 |
Home Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC) |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Wilmington Hammerheads 5th · 1-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC) |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.29 | 1.22 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NCFC Youth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.10 | -0.02 | 72% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Jan 24 at NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Jan 30 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Feb 6 at Charlotte SA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Skyline Elite | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | -0.20 | -0.02 | 97% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NCFC Youth Academy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | WLWD | +0.13 | -0.10 | 75% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Skyline Elite · Sat Oct 31 at VDA · Sun Jan 17 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Richmond United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 | 1.57 | DLDWW | -0.20 | +0.08 | 27% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 at Skyline Elite · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.10 | -0.02 | 52% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Jan 30 vs NCFC Youth · Sat Feb 13 vs Richmond United · Sun Feb 14 vs Beach FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Charlotte SA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.32 | +0.12 | 3% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sun Nov 22 vs Highland FC · Sat Jan 16 vs VDA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Arlington Soccer Association | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 | 1.38 | LLDWL | +0.13 | -0.16 | 31% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Jan 9 at VDA · Sun Jan 24 at Skyline Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Charlotte SA Academy | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | WDDL | +0.45 | -0.13 | 29% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 at Highland FC · Sun Jan 24 vs Charlotte SA See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Fairfax Virginia Union | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | LWWLL | +0.15 | -0.03 | 2% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at VDA · Sun Nov 8 at Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Dec 13 vs Skyline Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | VDA | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 5 | 0.83 | LWLDD | -0.01 | -0.01 | 7% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Oct 31 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Richmond United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Beach FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 | 0.71 | DWLLD | -0.04 | +0.17 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 at Skyline Elite · Sun Nov 8 at VDA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | NC Fusion | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | -0.32 | +0.09 | 3% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Jan 16 vs Skyline Elite · Sun Jan 17 vs VDA · Sat Jan 30 vs NCFC Youth Academy See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Highland FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.35 | +0.02 | 3% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sat Feb 13 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.