Wilmington Hammerheads

ECNL Boys · Mid-Atlantic BU14 · 13 teams · Wilmington Hammerheads (all teams)

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5th

4-1-2 record · 7 played

1.86 points per game

+0 goal diff · 15–15

WLDWLlast 5

8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4

-0.52 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Wilmington Hammerheads
5th · 1.86 PPG

NCFC Youth
9th · 1.00 PPG

WRAL , Field 11 ↗ far trip

37% 23% 39%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.7 against · 1.36 expected points)

Season so far	Wilmington Hammerheads	NCFC Youth
Position	5th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-2	1-2-2
Points per game	1.86	1.00
Goals for / game	2.1	1.0
Goals against / game	2.1	1.6
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L W D L W	D W L D L
Biggest win	5–2 vs Charlotte SA	2–1 vs Fairfax Virginia Union
Worst loss	0–6 vs VDA	0–3 vs VDA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.18	-0.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.52	+0.40

Common opponents: VDA — we 0–6; they 0–3. Skyline Elite — we 1–1; they 1–1. Arlington Soccer Association — we 4–2; they 1–1. Fairfax Virginia Union — we 2–3; they 2–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
NCFC Youth average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 1 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 vs VDA.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 37%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at WRAL .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
NCFC Youth Academy sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.86.
A win moves us above NCFC Youth Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NCFC Youth game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wilmington Hammerheads – NCFC Youth) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.75 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	5th— holds	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Draw 1.75 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.63 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

8% top 4

92% below the top 4

6.4 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 7%
5th 24%
6th 26%
7th 19%
8th 13%
9th 7%
10th 3%
11th 1%
12th <1%
13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Charlotte SA Academy	3.00 (+1.14)	3rd (2.24)	59 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
2	Richmond United	2.63 (+0.77)	1st (2.53)	51 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
3	VDA	2.25 (+0.39)	2nd (2.26)	41 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
4	NCFC Youth Academy	2.00 (+0.14)	4th (1.76)	Win next game

How the results connect

20 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Wilmington Hammerheads to NCFC Youth through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

1 even

12 favour them

-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 1st hardest of 13

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	NCFC Youth 9th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Away far trip WRAL	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.36	1.79	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Charlotte SA Academy 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +9	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	20%	1–2	0.78	1.68	Upside
Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM	Highland FC 6th · 2-1-2 · GD -7	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	3–1	1.94	1.71	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM	NCFC Youth Academy 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +5	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●●○ Tough	34%	2–2	1.20	1.66	Upside
Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM	NC Fusion 13th · 0-1-5 · GD -19	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.35	1.72	Bank it
Sat Dec 12 02:00 PM	Charlotte SA Academy 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +9	Away far trip Orthocarolina Complex	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–2	0.57	1.63	Upside
Sun Dec 13 11:00 AM	Highland FC 6th · 2-1-2 · GD -7	Away far trip Buncombe County Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	2–2	1.62	1.63	Swing game
Sat Jan 30 10:00 AM	NCFC Youth 9th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.62	1.63	Swing game
Sat Feb 13 01:00 PM	Richmond United 2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +30	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–3	0.39	1.55	Upside
Sun Feb 14 11:00 AM	Beach FC 8th · 2-3-3 · GD -2	Home NCINO Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–2	1.57	1.55	Swing game
Sat Feb 20 03:00 PM	Fairfax Virginia Union 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -5	Away far trip WT Woodson High School · turf	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.43	1.55	Upside
Sun Feb 21 TBD	Arlington Soccer Association 11th · 1-2-5 · GD -16	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.86	1.56	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 10:00 AM	Richmond United 2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +30	Away far trip Striker Park	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.24	1.50	Upside
Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM	Beach FC 8th · 2-3-3 · GD -2	Away far trip Hampton Roads Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.48	Upside
Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM	NCFC Youth Academy 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +5	Away far trip WRAL	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.91	1.46	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Skyline Elite 7th · 3-2-3 · GD +1	Away	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–2	1.10	1.44	Upside
Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM	VDA 3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +15	Away far trip Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC)	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–3	0.50	1.40	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Charlotte SA Academy

3.00

WWWW

+0.08

-0.14

99%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	VDA (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Highland FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA · Sat Oct 31 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Highland FC (6th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	NC Fusion (13th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	VDA (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Highland FC (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Beach FC (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Beach FC (8th)	3–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United

+30

2.63

WWWWW

-0.43

-0.16

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	7–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	NC Fusion (13th)	10–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	7–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Beach FC (8th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	VDA (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 at Skyline Elite · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Beach FC (8th)	5–1	89%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	VDA (3rd)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	4–1	91%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	6–1	94%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Highland FC (6th)	5–1	94%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Highland FC (6th)	5–1	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VDA

+15

2.25

WWWLW

+0.13

-0.27

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Highland FC (6th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	6–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Beach FC (8th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Richmond United (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Oct 31 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Richmond United See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–1	76%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	3–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	2–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Beach FC (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NC Fusion (13th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Highland FC (6th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth Academy

2.00

LWWWW

-0.12

-0.05

73%

4.3

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Beach FC (8th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Skyline Elite · Sat Oct 31 at VDA · Sat Nov 21 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	VDA (3rd)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	NC Fusion (13th)	4–1	77%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Highland FC (6th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Highland FC (6th)	3–2	62%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	VDA (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Beach FC (8th)	3–2	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wilmington Hammerheads

1.86

WLDWL

-0.52

+0.21

6.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	4–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	VDA (3rd)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	NC Fusion (13th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	5–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at NCFC Youth · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Highland FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Highland FC (6th)	3–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Highland FC (6th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Beach FC (8th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Beach FC (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	VDA (3rd)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Highland FC

-7

1.40

WDLWL

-0.31

+0.18

9.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	VDA (3rd)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	1–6
D	Sun Sep 20	at	NC Fusion (13th)	4–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Academy · Sat Oct 31 at NCFC Youth · Sun Nov 1 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–3	24%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	VDA (3rd)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	3–2	65%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–5	2%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Beach FC (8th)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Beach FC (8th)	2–3	34%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–5	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Skyline Elite

1.38

DDLLL

-0.05

+0.01

15%

5.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Highland FC (6th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	VDA (3rd)	2–3
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Beach FC (8th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach FC See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Beach FC (8th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	NC Fusion (13th)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	VDA (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach FC

-2

1.13

LDDDW

-0.03

-0.01

7.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	NC Fusion (13th)	4–3
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	3–3
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	VDA (3rd)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 at Skyline Elite · Sun Nov 8 at VDA See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	VDA (3rd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–1	41%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	4–1	77%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Highland FC (6th)	3–2	61%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Highland FC (6th)	3–2	49%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sat May 1	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth

-3

1.00

LDLWD

+0.40

-0.12

8.1

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	VDA (3rd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Oct 31 vs Highland FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA Academy See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Beach FC (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Beach FC (8th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	VDA (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat May 8	at	NC Fusion (13th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fairfax Virginia Union

-5

0.67

LLDLW

+0.14

-0.01

9.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–2
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Beach FC (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at VDA · Sun Nov 8 at Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Dec 13 vs Skyline Elite See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	VDA (3rd)	1–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Beach FC (8th)	1–2	38%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Highland FC (6th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	VDA (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 1	at	NC Fusion (13th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun May 2	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

-16

0.63

LDLLD

+0.43

-0.09

11.4

D	Sun Oct 18	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–7
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Beach FC (8th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	VDA (3rd)	1–4

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Jan 9 at VDA · Sun Jan 24 at Skyline Elite See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	VDA (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Beach FC (8th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–2	32%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	2–2	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 1	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	1–3	22%
·	Sun May 2	at	NC Fusion (13th)	2–2	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA

-8

0.57

LWLDL

+0.14

+0.03

10.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	2–7
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Beach FC (8th)	3–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Highland FC (6th)	6–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Highland FC (6th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NC Fusion · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Charlotte SA Academy See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NC Fusion (13th)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	VDA (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	2–3	26%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–6	2%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Beach FC (8th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	VDA (3rd)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NC Fusion (13th)	4–2	70%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	3–1	61%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	2–2	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NC Fusion

-19

0.17

DLLLL

+0.54

+0.03

12.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Beach FC (8th)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Richmond United (2nd)	1–10
L	Sat Oct 3	at	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Highland FC (6th)	4–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA · Sat Nov 14 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sat Nov 21 at NCFC Youth See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Charlotte SA Academy (1st)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (5th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–3	17%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	VDA (3rd)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	NCFC Youth Academy (4th)	1–4	12%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Beach FC (8th)	1–4	12%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Richmond United (2nd)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	VDA (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Skyline Elite (7th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Highland FC (6th)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA (12th)	2–4	17%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Fairfax Virginia Union (10th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (11th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat May 8	vs	NCFC Youth (9th)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.