VDA
ECNL Boys · Mid-Atlantic BU14 · 13 teams · Virginia Development Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM
Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC), Field 7 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.0 against · 2.42 expected points)
| Season so far | VDA | Fairfax Virginia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W W | W L D L L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Wilmington Hammerheads | 3–2 at Wilmington Hammerheads |
| Worst loss | 2–4 at Beach FC | 0–2 at Skyline Elite |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.47 | -0.45 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.13 | +0.14 |
Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 4–1; they 0–1. Richmond United — we 2–1; they 1–3. Beach FC — we 2–4; they 2–2. Wilmington Hammerheads — we 6–0; they 3–2. NCFC Youth — we 3–0; they 1–2. Skyline Elite — we 3–2; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Fairfax Virginia Union game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VDA – Fairfax Virginia Union) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.33 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.11 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 46%
- 3rd 39%
- 4th 4%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte SA Academy | 3.00 (+0.75) | 3rd (2.24) | 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 2 | Richmond United | 2.63 (+0.38) | 1st (2.53) | 46 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
How the results connect
28 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link VDA to Fairfax Virginia Union through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.27 · 13th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Fairfax Virginia Union 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -5 |
Home Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–1 | 2.42 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Academy 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +5 |
Home Long Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–1 | 2.12 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
Richmond United 2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +30 |
Home Long Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.15 | 2.15 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Beach FC 8th · 2-3-3 · GD -2 |
Home Howison Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 2.18 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 9 12:00 PM |
Arlington Soccer Association 11th · 1-2-5 · GD -16 |
Home Howison Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.70 | 2.22 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 16 TBD |
Charlotte SA 12th · 1-1-5 · GD -8 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 2.23 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 17 TBD |
NC Fusion 13th · 0-1-5 · GD -19 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Skyline Elite 7th · 3-2-3 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 12:00 PM |
Highland FC 6th · 2-1-2 · GD -7 |
Home Long Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.66 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM |
Charlotte SA Academy 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home Long Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 PM |
NC Fusion 13th · 0-1-5 · GD -19 |
Home Howison Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
5–1 | 2.84 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM |
Charlotte SA 12th · 1-1-5 · GD -8 |
Home Howison Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.63 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 03:00 PM |
Fairfax Virginia Union 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
WT Woodson High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.20 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM |
NCFC Youth 9th · 1-2-2 · GD -3 |
Home Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.33 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Wilmington Hammerheads 5th · 4-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.37 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 02:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Academy 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 2.26 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Charlotte SA Academy | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | +0.08 | -0.14 | 100% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Highland FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA · Sat Oct 31 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Richmond United | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 9 | +30 | 21 | 2.63 | WWWWW | -0.43 | -0.16 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 at Skyline Elite · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | VDA | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 18 | 2.25 | WWWLW | +0.13 | -0.27 | 100% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Oct 31 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Richmond United See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NCFC Youth Academy | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWW | -0.12 | -0.05 | 73% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Skyline Elite · Sat Oct 31 at VDA · Sat Nov 21 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 15 | +0 | 13 | 1.86 | WLDWL | -0.52 | +0.21 | 8% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at NCFC Youth · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Highland FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Highland FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 | 1.40 | WDLWL | -0.31 | +0.18 | 0% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Academy · Sat Oct 31 at NCFC Youth · Sun Nov 1 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Skyline Elite | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 11 | 1.38 | DDLLL | -0.05 | +0.01 | 15% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Beach FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 9 | 1.13 | LDDDW | -0.03 | -0.01 | 2% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 at Skyline Elite · Sun Nov 8 at VDA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NCFC Youth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | 1.00 | LDLWD | +0.40 | -0.12 | 2% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Oct 31 vs Highland FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA Academy See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Fairfax Virginia Union | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDLW | +0.14 | -0.01 | 0% | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at VDA · Sun Nov 8 at Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Dec 13 vs Skyline Elite See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Arlington Soccer Association | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 5 | 0.63 | LDLLD | +0.43 | -0.09 | 0% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Jan 9 at VDA · Sun Jan 24 at Skyline Elite See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Charlotte SA | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 4 | 0.57 | LWLDL | +0.14 | +0.03 | 0% | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NC Fusion · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Charlotte SA Academy See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | NC Fusion | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 28 | -19 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.54 | +0.03 | 0% | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA · Sat Nov 14 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sat Nov 21 at NCFC Youth See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.