TableChase Clubs

Valley United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U17 · 13 teams · Valley United Soccer Club (all teams)

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12th
1-0-6 record · 7 played
0.43 points per game
-29 goal diff · 1–30
LLWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.4
+0.52 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 0.43 PPG
vs
Central Coast United Soccer Club
9th · 1.17 PPG

Valley United Soccer Complex, Olivar ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.4 for, 3.4 against · 0.47 expected points)

Season so farValley United Soccer ClubCentral Coast United Soccer Club
Position12th9th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-62-1-3
Points per game0.431.17
Goals for / game0.12.3
Goals against / game4.34.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless60
Form (recent first)L L W L LW W L D L
Biggest win1–0 at LA Surf SC SFV5–2 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club
Worst loss0–8 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer1–13 at Central Coast Surf Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.68-1.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.52+0.11

Common opponents: Central Coast Surf Soccer — we 0–8; they 1–13. FC Man United — we 0–2; they 1–3. LA Surf SC SFV — we 1–0; they 4–2. ALBION SC SCV — we 0–5; they 1–4. TFA-SGV — we 0–5; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Central Coast United Soccer Club concede 4.3/game; worst result 1–13 at Central Coast Surf Soccer.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–8 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer, 0–3 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2), 0–2 at FC Man United, 0–7 at Dynamo, 0–5 at ALBION SC SCV, 0–5 vs TFA-SGV.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 11%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) sit 11th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.43.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Central Coast United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Valley United Soccer Club – Central Coast United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.38 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Win
0.75 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 12th— holds 12th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Loss
0.38 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 64%
  13. 13th 36%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC SCV 2.75 (+2.32) 2nd (2.41) 63 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 2.50 (+2.07) 1st (2.42) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Dynamo 2.33 (+1.90) 3rd (2.33) 53 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 TFA-SGV 1.75 (+1.32) 5th (1.65) 39 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
5 Unico Futbol Club 1.60 (+1.17) 7th (1.57) 36 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
6 Central Cal Aztecs 2 1.57 (+1.14) 6th (1.61) 35 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 Oaks FC 2 1.50 (+1.07) 4th (1.69) 33 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
8 FC Man United 1.43 (+1.00) 8th (1.19) 32 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 Central Coast United Soccer Club 1.17 (+0.74) 11th (0.99) 26 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Oxnard United Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.57) 9th (1.10) 21 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 0.67 (+0.24) 10th (1.06) A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Valley United Soccer Club to Central Coast United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
16 favour them
-2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 3–1 1–0 2–4 0–5 4–1 0–8 13–1 0–5 2–2 6–0 1–3 0–7 10–0 3–2 2–3 Valley United Socce… 12th FC Man United 8th LA Surf SC SFV 13th ALBION SC SCV 1st Central Coast Surf … 2nd TFA-SGV 4th Dynamo 3rd Central Coast Unite… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 4th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-3 · GD -12		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.47 0.43 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +4		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.15 0.40 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +0		 Home
Birmingham High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–2 0.30 0.39 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -10		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.51 0.40 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:30 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +25		 Away
Talley Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.01 0.37 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:15 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.28 0.36 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.44 0.37 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +20		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.05 0.35 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +5		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–3 0.13 0.33 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -29		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–1 1.27 0.39 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.05 0.37 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 4-2-2 · GD +9		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.10 0.36 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.23 0.35 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +0		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.20 0.34 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-3 · GD -12		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.30 0.34 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -10		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.35 0.34 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +5		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.20 0.33 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC SCV 8710 307+23 222.75 DWWWW -0.49 +0.00 100% 1.9
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 305+25 152.50 WWWLW -0.26 -0.17 100% 1.8
3 Dynamo 6420 222+20 142.33 DWWWW -0.78 +0.02 100% 2.3
4 TFA-SGV 8422 2213+9 141.75 LWWWW -0.68 +0.21 28% 5.4
5 Unico Futbol Club 5221 88+0 81.60 DWDWL +0.81 -0.21 17% 6.0
6 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7322 1511+4 111.57 DDWLW +0.10 -0.08 22% 5.7
7 Oaks FC 2 8404 1813+5 121.50 WWLLL +0.53 -0.29 34% 5.3
8 FC Man United 7313 1113-2 101.43 LWWLL -0.65 +0.33 0% 8.6
9 Central Coast United Soccer Club 6213 1426-12 71.17 LDLWW +0.11 +0.07 0% 10.1
10 Oxnard United Soccer Club 6204 919-10 61.00 LWLWL +0.61 -0.11 0% 9.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 1014-4 40.67 DLLLL +0.02 +0.07 0% 9.5
12 Valley United Soccer Club 7106 130-29 30.43 LLWLL +0.52 +0.10 0% 12.4
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8008 534-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.13 +0.25 0% 12.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.