TableChase Clubs

Central Coast United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U17 · 13 teams · Central Coast United Soccer Club (all teams)

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9th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
-12 goal diff · 14–26
LDLWWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.1
+0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Central Coast United Soccer Club
9th · 1.17 PPG
at
Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 0.43 PPG

Valley United Soccer Complex, Olivar ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.4 against · 2.41 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast United Soccer ClubValley United Soccer Club
Position9th12th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-31-0-6
Points per game1.170.43
Goals for / game2.30.1
Goals against / game4.34.3
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless06
Form (recent first)W W L D LL L W L L
Biggest win5–2 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club1–0 at LA Surf SC SFV
Worst loss1–13 at Central Coast Surf Soccer0–8 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.23-2.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.11+0.52

Common opponents: ALBION SC SCV — we 1–4; they 0–5. FC Man United — we 1–3; they 0–2. TFA-SGV — we 2–2; they 0–5. Central Coast Surf Soccer — we 1–13; they 0–8. LA Surf SC SFV — we 4–2; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Valley United Soccer Club average 0.1 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 6 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Valley United Soccer Club concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–8 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Valley United Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast United Soccer Club – Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.43 PPG		 9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 1
Win
1.43 PPG		 9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 10th▼ down 1
Draw
1.14 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1
Loss
1.00 PPG		 10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 28%
  11. 11th 46%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC SCV 2.75 (+1.58) 2nd (2.41) 59 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 2.50 (+1.33) 1st (2.42) 53 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
3 Dynamo 2.33 (+1.16) 3rd (2.33) 49 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
4 TFA-SGV 1.75 (+0.58) 5th (1.65) 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 Unico Futbol Club 1.60 (+0.43) 7th (1.57) 32 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6 Central Cal Aztecs 2 1.57 (+0.40) 6th (1.61) 31 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
7 Oaks FC 2 1.50 (+0.33) 4th (1.69) 29 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
8 FC Man United 1.43 (+0.26) 8th (1.19) 28 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

21 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast United Soccer Club to Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–0 4–2 0–1 1–4 5–0 1–13 8–0 2–2 5–0 0–6 0–10 7–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 Central Coast Unite… 9th FC Man United 8th LA Surf SC SFV 13th ALBION SC SCV 1st Central Coast Surf … 2nd TFA-SGV 4th Dynamo 3rd Valley United Socce… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
12:10 PM
no score posted		 Unico Futbol Club
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +0		 Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–3 0.66 1.09 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Away
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 3–1 2.41 1.26 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
06:30 PM		 Dynamo
3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +20		 Away
Van Nuys / Sherman Oaks Rec Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.10 1.13 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +5		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–3 0.70 1.09 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 ALBION SC SCV
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.22 1.01 Upside
Sun Nov 15
03:20 PM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Away
Citrus College · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 2–2 0.96 1.00 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 4-2-2 · GD +9		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–4 0.42 0.96 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +25		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.13 0.90 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +0		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●○ Tough
25%		 2–2 0.93 0.90 Upside
Sat Mar 20
02:15 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 2–3 0.95 0.90 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +4		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–3 0.78 0.90 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -10		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–3 1.17 0.91 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -29		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.25 0.98 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.28 1.00 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 PM		 Dynamo
3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +20		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.17 0.96 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 3–1 2.61 1.03 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +5		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.47 1.01 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +4		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–3 0.53 0.99 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC SCV 8710 307+23 222.75 DWWWW -0.49 +0.00 100% 1.9
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 305+25 152.50 WWWLW -0.26 -0.17 100% 1.8
3 Dynamo 6420 222+20 142.33 DWWWW -0.78 +0.02 100% 2.3
4 TFA-SGV 8422 2213+9 141.75 LWWWW -0.68 +0.21 28% 5.4
5 Unico Futbol Club 5221 88+0 81.60 DWDWL +0.81 -0.21 17% 6.0
6 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7322 1511+4 111.57 DDWLW +0.10 -0.08 22% 5.7
7 Oaks FC 2 8404 1813+5 121.50 WWLLL +0.53 -0.29 34% 5.3
8 FC Man United 7313 1113-2 101.43 LWWLL -0.65 +0.33 0% 8.6
9 Central Coast United Soccer Club 6213 1426-12 71.17 LDLWW +0.11 +0.07 0% 10.1
10 Oxnard United Soccer Club 6204 919-10 61.00 LWLWL +0.61 -0.11 0% 9.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 1014-4 40.67 DLLLL +0.02 +0.07 0% 9.5
12 Valley United Soccer Club 7106 130-29 30.43 LLWLL +0.52 +0.10 0% 12.4
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8008 534-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.13 +0.25 0% 12.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.