TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC SCV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U17 · 13 teams · ALBION SC SCV (all teams)

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1st
7-1-0 record · 8 played
2.75 points per game
+23 goal diff · 30–7
DWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0
-0.49 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:05 AM

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ALBION SC SCV
1st · 2.75 PPG
vs
FC Man United
8th · 1.43 PPG

Turf - West Ranch High School, Stadium ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.3 for, 0.9 against · 2.57 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC SCVFC Man United
Position1st8th
Record (W-D-L)7-1-03-1-3
Points per game2.751.43
Goals for / game3.81.6
Goals against / game0.91.9
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W W DL L W W L
Biggest win6–0 at LA Surf SC SFV3–1 at Central Coast United Soccer Club
Worst loss—0–3 vs Oaks FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.91-0.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.49-0.65

Common opponents: Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 4–1; they 3–1. Oaks FC 2 — we 4–1; they 0–3. LA Surf SC SFV — we 6–0; they 3–2. Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 2–2; they 1–4. Unico Futbol Club — we 4–2; they 0–0. Valley United Soccer Club — we 5–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Man United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC SCV – FC Man United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.78 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.78 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.56 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.44 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

34% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.0 average finish
  1. 1st 34%
  2. 2nd 37%
  3. 3rd 29%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

28 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC SCV to FC Man United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

27 favour us
1 favour them
+4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 1–3 4–2 0–0 5–0 0–2 2–2 4–1 6–0 2–3 4–1 3–0 0–5 3–2 2–0 3–0 2–5 2–4 0–1 1–3 ALBION SC SCV 1st Central Coast Unite… 9th Unico Futbol Club 5th Valley United Socce… 12th Central Cal Aztecs 2 6th LA Surf SC SFV 13th Oaks FC 2 7th Oxnard United Socce… 10th TFA-SGV 4th FC Man United 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:05 AM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
Turf - West Ranch High School · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–0 2.57 2.73 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:30 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Home
Central Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 3–1 2.62 2.72 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
06:15 PM		 Dynamo
3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +20		 Away
Whitsett Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–1 1.08 2.57 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-3 · GD -12		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.72 2.58 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +5		 Away
River Ridge		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.96 2.53 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -29		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 5–0 2.95 2.56 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +4		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.27 2.54 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +25		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.38 2.47 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 4-2-2 · GD +9		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.97 2.44 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +0		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–1 2.36 2.44 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 4–0 2.92 2.46 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -10		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 4–0 2.74 2.48 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 2–1 2.38 2.47 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.43 2.47 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +20		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.34 2.42 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 4-2-2 · GD +9		 Home
Turf - West Ranch High School · turf		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 2–1 2.23 2.41 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC SCV 8710 307+23 222.75 DWWWW -0.49 +0.00 100% 2.0
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 305+25 152.50 WWWLW -0.26 -0.17 100% 1.8
3 Dynamo 6420 222+20 142.33 DWWWW -0.78 +0.02 100% 2.3
4 TFA-SGV 8422 2213+9 141.75 LWWWW -0.68 +0.21 27% 5.5
5 Unico Futbol Club 5221 88+0 81.60 DWDWL +0.81 -0.21 17% 6.0
6 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7322 1511+4 111.57 DDWLW +0.10 -0.08 21% 5.8
7 Oaks FC 2 8404 1813+5 121.50 WWLLL +0.53 -0.29 35% 5.2
8 FC Man United 7313 1113-2 101.43 LWWLL -0.65 +0.33 0% 8.7
9 Central Coast United Soccer Club 6213 1426-12 71.17 LDLWW +0.11 +0.07 0% 10.1
10 Oxnard United Soccer Club 6204 919-10 61.00 LWLWL +0.61 -0.11 0% 9.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 1014-4 40.67 DLLLL +0.02 +0.07 0% 9.4
12 Valley United Soccer Club 7106 130-29 30.43 LLWLL +0.52 +0.10 0% 12.3
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8008 534-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.13 +0.25 0% 12.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.