TableChase Clubs

Oaks FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U17 · 13 teams · Oaks FC (all teams)

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7th
4-0-4 record · 8 played
1.50 points per game
+5 goal diff · 18–13
WWLLLlast 5
34% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.3
+0.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Oaks FC 2
7th · 1.50 PPG
vs
Unico Futbol Club
5th · 1.60 PPG

River Ridge, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.5 against · 1.74 expected points)

Season so farOaks FC 2Unico Futbol Club
Position7th5th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-42-2-1
Points per game1.501.60
Goals for / game2.31.6
Goals against / game1.61.6
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L L L W WL W D W D
Biggest win5–0 vs LA Surf SC SFV2–1 at TFA-SGV
Worst loss1–4 at ALBION SC SCV2–4 vs ALBION SC SCV
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.54+0.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.53+0.81

Common opponents: ALBION SC SCV — we 1–4; they 2–4. FC Man United — we 3–0; they 0–0. TFA-SGV — we 4–3; they 2–1. Dynamo — we 0–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Dynamo, 0–1 at Central Coast Surf Soccer.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 22% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Central Cal Aztecs 2 sit 6th on 1.57 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Central Cal Aztecs 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Unico Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oaks FC 2 – Unico Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.67 PPG		 5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2 7th— holds
Win
1.67 PPG		 5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2 7th— holds
Draw
1.44 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Loss
1.33 PPG		 8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
34% top 4
66% below the top 4
5.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 33%
  5. 5th 26%
  6. 6th 21%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC SCV 2.75 (+1.25) 2nd (2.41) 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 2.50 (+1.00) 1st (2.42) 48 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
3 Dynamo 2.33 (+0.83) 3rd (2.33) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
4 TFA-SGV 1.75 (+0.25) 5th (1.65) 30 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 Unico Futbol Club 1.60 (+0.10) 7th (1.57) A point next game
6 Central Cal Aztecs 2 1.57 (+0.07) 6th (1.61) A point next game

How the results connect

20 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Oaks FC 2 to Unico Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
3 even
5 favour them
+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–3 1–2 0–1 1–1 1–4 4–2 3–0 0–0 0–1 1–2 2–0 2–3 2–3 2–2 1–1 3–1 0–3 5–0 0–6 2–3 Oaks FC 2 7th TFA-SGV 4th Dynamo 3rd ALBION SC SCV 1st FC Man United 8th Central Coast Surf … 2nd Central Cal Aztecs 2 6th Oxnard United Socce… 10th LA Surf SC SFV 13th ALBION SC Antelope … 11th Unico Futbol Club 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.29 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +0		 Home
River Ridge		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.74 1.53 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Home
River Ridge		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.07 1.58 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-3 · GD -12		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–1 2.15 1.63 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -10		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.01 1.66 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +23		 Home
River Ridge		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.85 1.60 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -2		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.02 1.63 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
13th · 0-0-8 · GD -29		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–0 2.66 1.70 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 4-2-2 · GD +9		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–2 1.22 1.67 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 3–0 2.82 1.74 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
01:00 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +4		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.32 1.71 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
3rd · 4-2-0 · GD +20		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 0–2 0.53 1.65 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +25		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.68 1.60 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +0		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.46 1.60 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
11th · 1-1-4 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.79 1.61 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
9th · 2-1-3 · GD -12		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.42 1.64 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
12th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Away
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 3–0 2.71 1.69 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC SCV 8710 307+23 222.75 DWWWW -0.49 +0.00 100% 2.0
2 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6501 305+25 152.50 WWWLW -0.26 -0.17 100% 1.8
3 Dynamo 6420 222+20 142.33 DWWWW -0.78 +0.02 100% 2.3
4 TFA-SGV 8422 2213+9 141.75 LWWWW -0.68 +0.21 28% 5.5
5 Unico Futbol Club 5221 88+0 81.60 DWDWL +0.81 -0.21 16% 6.0
6 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7322 1511+4 111.57 DDWLW +0.10 -0.08 22% 5.7
7 Oaks FC 2 8404 1813+5 121.50 WWLLL +0.53 -0.29 34% 5.3
8 FC Man United 7313 1113-2 101.43 LWWLL -0.65 +0.33 0% 8.7
9 Central Coast United Soccer Club 6213 1426-12 71.17 LDLWW +0.11 +0.07 0% 10.0
10 Oxnard United Soccer Club 6204 919-10 61.00 LWLWL +0.61 -0.11 0% 9.3
11 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 1014-4 40.67 DLLLL +0.02 +0.07 0% 9.4
12 Valley United Soccer Club 7106 130-29 30.43 LLWLL +0.52 +0.10 0% 12.3
13 LA Surf SC SFV 8008 534-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.13 +0.25 0% 12.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.