TableChase Clubs

TFA-SGV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U14 · 13 teams · TFA SGV (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 46 minutes ago. Next available update in 13:32.
Add schedule to calendar
9th
2-1-5 record · 8 played
0.88 points per game
-27 goal diff · 13–40
WLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.6
+0.51 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

Open the match preview →

TFA-SGV
9th · 0.88 PPG
at
Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2.00 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.4 for, 5.0 against · 0.19 expected points)

Season so farTFA-SGVOxnard United Soccer Club
Position9th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-54-2-1
Points per game0.882.00
Goals for / game1.63.3
Goals against / game5.01.7
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless31
Form (recent first)L L L L WD W L W W
Biggest win4–1 at Dynamo6–0 at Dynamo
Worst loss0–12 at Central Coast United Soccer Club0–4 at Central Coast United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.31+1.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.51-0.23

Common opponents: Dynamo — we 4–1; they 6–0. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 0–12; they 0–4. Oaks FC 2 — we 4–2; they 3–2. ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) — we 2–7; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–12 at Central Coast United Soccer Club, 0–2 vs FC Man United, 0–12 at Valley United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at River Ridge Playfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TFA-SGV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.78 PPG		 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2
Win
1.11 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Draw
0.89 PPG		 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1
Loss
0.78 PPG		 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 35%
  11. 11th 41%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Coast United Soccer Club 3.00 (+2.12) 1st (2.75) 65 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Valley United Soccer Club 2.71 (+1.83) 2nd (2.47) 59 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 LA Surf SC SFV 2.00 (+1.12) 4th (1.91) 41 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 2.00 (+1.12) 5th (1.83) 41 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
5 FC Man United 1.71 (+0.83) 7th (1.58) 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 1.67 (+0.79) 3rd (1.95) 34 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 1.50 (+0.62) 8th (1.22) 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
8 ALBION SC SCV 1.25 (+0.37) 6th (1.81) 23 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection

How the results connect

28 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link TFA-SGV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 even
21 favour them
-4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–2 2–3 4–1 0–6 0–12 4–0 2–7 0–5 0–2 0–2 1–2 2–0 2–2 1–2 4–4 2–2 5–0 4–3 3–0 0–3 1–6 2–6 TFA-SGV 9th Oaks FC 2 11th Dynamo 12th Central Coast Unite… 1st ALBION SC Antelope … 7th FC Man United 5th LA Surf SC SFV 3rd Unico Futbol Club 10th ALBION SC SCV 8th Central Coast Surf … 6th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th Oxnard United Socce… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 7th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 4-2-1 · GD +11		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–5 0.19 0.80 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:15 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -65		 Home
Don Bosco Tech · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 5–1 2.77 1.00 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +15		 Home
Gladstone Middle School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–5 0.19 0.92 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:30 AM		 Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -21		 Home
Gladstone Middle School · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 3–2 1.79 1.00 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
08:30 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14		 Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–3 1.04 1.00 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +37		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.02 0.93 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 1-1-5 · GD -3		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.76 0.92 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
8th · 3-1-4 · GD +20		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–6 0.16 0.87 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-3-1 · GD +4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.43 0.84 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 2–4 0.43 0.82 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–5 0.08 0.78 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 4-2-1 · GD +11		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.32 0.76 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +16		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.26 0.74 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -65		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 5–1 2.60 0.82 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +15		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–6 0.10 0.79 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
8th · 3-1-4 · GD +20		 Away
Turf - West Ranch High School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–7 0.08 0.76 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7700 392+37 213.00 WWWWW +0.36 -0.61 100% 1.1
2 Valley United Soccer Club 7610 283+25 192.71 DWWWW +0.05 -0.34 100% 2.0
3 LA Surf SC SFV 8512 2711+16 162.00 DWLLW -0.20 -0.03 55% 4.5
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7421 2312+11 142.00 WWLWD -0.23 -0.05 36% 5.0
5 FC Man United 7331 95+4 121.71 DDDWW -0.56 +0.10 5% 6.6
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6312 2712+15 101.67 WDLWW +0.48 -0.36 66% 4.1
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6303 1816+2 91.50 WWLLW -1.49 +0.48 0% 8.2
8 ALBION SC SCV 8314 4020+20 101.25 WLWLD +0.31 -0.41 37% 4.9
9 TFA-SGV 8215 1340-27 70.88 WLLLL +0.51 +0.04 0% 10.6
10 Unico Futbol Club 6114 822-14 40.67 DWLLL +0.30 +0.08 0% 10.4
11 Oaks FC 2 7115 1922-3 40.57 LLLWL -0.38 +0.15 0% 9.0
12 Dynamo 6105 526-21 30.50 LLLWL +0.20 +0.19 0% 11.6
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7007 267-65 00.00 LLLLL +0.78 +0.36 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.