TableChase Clubs

Oxnard United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U14 · 13 teams · Oxnard United Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th
4-2-1 record · 7 played
2.00 points per game
+11 goal diff · 23–12
WWLWDlast 5
36% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.0
-0.23 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 2.00 PPG
vs
LA Surf SC SFV
3rd · 2.00 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.1 against · 1.41 expected points)

Season so farOxnard United Soccer ClubLA Surf SC SFV
Position4th3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-2-15-1-2
Points per game2.002.00
Goals for / game3.33.4
Goals against / game1.71.4
Clean sheets34
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D W L W WW L L W D
Biggest win6–0 at Dynamo9–0 at Central Cal Aztecs 2
Worst loss0–4 at Central Coast United Soccer Club1–6 at Central Coast United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.01+1.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.23-0.20

Common opponents: Dynamo — we 6–0; they 4–0. Oaks FC 2 — we 3–2; they 6–0. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 0–4; they 1–6. Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 3–0; they 9–0. ALBION SC SCV — we 2–2; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    LA Surf SC SFV concede only 1.4/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Central Coast United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 40%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    LA Surf SC SFV sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above LA Surf SC SFV on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf SC SFV game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oxnard United Soccer Club – LA Surf SC SFV) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.88 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.13 PPG		 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
1.88 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.75 PPG		 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
36% top 4
64% below the top 4
5.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 24%
  6. 6th 27%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Coast United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.75) 58 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Valley United Soccer Club 2.71 (+0.71) 2nd (2.47) 52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
3 LA Surf SC SFV 2.00 (+0.00) 4th (1.91) A point next game

How the results connect

30 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Oxnard United Soccer Club to LA Surf SC SFV through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us
2 even
14 favour them
-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 6–1 2–2 0–2 6–0 0–4 3–2 0–6 3–0 0–9 0–3 1–1 5–0 3–4 0–4 1–1 4–4 0–2 3–2 6–2 Oxnard United Socce… 4th Central Coast Unite… 1st ALBION SC SCV 8th Dynamo 12th Oaks FC 2 11th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th ALBION SC Antelope … 7th Central Coast Surf … 6th FC Man United 5th Valley United Socce… 2nd LA Surf SC SFV 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 9th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +16		 Home
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.41 1.93 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
9th · 2-1-5 · GD -27		 Home
River Ridge Playfields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 5–1 2.75 2.02 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-3-1 · GD +4		 Away
Walnut Ranch Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.43 1.96 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.55 1.83 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 1-1-5 · GD -3		 Home
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.23 1.86 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:10 PM		 LA Surf SC SFV
3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +16		 Away
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–2 1.11 1.81 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +15		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–2 1.04 1.75 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -21		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–1 2.76 1.82 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–1 2.15 1.84 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 3–1 2.38 1.87 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +37		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.45 1.79 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -65		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 8–0 2.99 1.86 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
8th · 3-1-4 · GD +20		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–3 1.02 1.81 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
9th · 2-1-5 · GD -27		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 4–1 2.59 1.85 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-3-1 · GD +4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 1–1 1.67 1.84 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.77 1.80 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14		 Home
River Ridge Playfields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–1 2.59 1.83 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7700 392+37 213.00 WWWWW +0.36 -0.61 100% 1.1
2 Valley United Soccer Club 7610 283+25 192.71 DWWWW +0.05 -0.34 100% 2.0
3 LA Surf SC SFV 8512 2711+16 162.00 DWLLW -0.20 -0.03 53% 4.5
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7421 2312+11 142.00 WWLWD -0.23 -0.05 36% 5.0
5 FC Man United 7331 95+4 121.71 DDDWW -0.56 +0.10 6% 6.6
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6312 2712+15 101.67 WDLWW +0.48 -0.36 67% 4.1
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6303 1816+2 91.50 WWLLW -1.49 +0.48 0% 8.2
8 ALBION SC SCV 8314 4020+20 101.25 WLWLD +0.31 -0.41 39% 4.9
9 TFA-SGV 8215 1340-27 70.88 WLLLL +0.51 +0.04 0% 10.6
10 Unico Futbol Club 6114 822-14 40.67 DWLLL +0.30 +0.08 0% 10.4
11 Oaks FC 2 7115 1922-3 40.57 LLLWL -0.38 +0.15 0% 9.0
12 Dynamo 6105 526-21 30.50 LLLWL +0.20 +0.19 0% 11.6
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7007 267-65 00.00 LLLLL +0.78 +0.36 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.