TableChase Clubs

LA Surf SC SFV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U14 · 13 teams · LA Surf SC SFV (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 55 minutes ago. Next available update in 04:39.
Add schedule to calendar
3rd
5-1-2 record · 8 played
2.00 points per game
+16 goal diff · 27–11
DWLLWlast 5
55% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5
-0.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

Open the match preview →

LA Surf SC SFV
3rd · 2.00 PPG
at

River Ridge Playfields, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.1 against · 1.39 expected points)

Season so farLA Surf SC SFVOxnard United Soccer Club
Position3rd4th
Record (W-D-L)5-1-24-2-1
Points per game2.002.00
Goals for / game3.43.3
Goals against / game1.41.7
Clean sheets43
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L L W DD W L W W
Biggest win9–0 at Central Cal Aztecs 26–0 at Dynamo
Worst loss1–6 at Central Coast United Soccer Club0–4 at Central Coast United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.28+1.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.20-0.23

Common opponents: Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 9–0; they 3–0. ALBION SC SCV — we 2–0; they 2–2. Oaks FC 2 — we 6–0; they 3–2. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 1–6; they 0–4. Dynamo — we 4–0; they 6–0.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 40%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at River Ridge Playfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf SC SFV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.89 PPG
3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.11 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
1.89 PPG
3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
1.78 PPG
4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
55% top 4
45% below the top 4
4.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 27%
  5. 5th 21%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Coast United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.75) 56 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Valley United Soccer Club 2.71 (+0.71) 2nd (2.47) 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection

How the results connect

30 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link LA Surf SC SFV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us
2 even
14 favour them
+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–6 4–0 4–0 0–6 2–0 2–2 6–0 2–3 9–0 0–3 4–3 0–5 1–1 3–0 4–0 2–3 2–0 4–4 1–1 2–1 4–1 4–2 LA Surf SC SFV 3rd Central Coast Unite… 1st Dynamo 12th ALBION SC SCV 8th Oaks FC 2 11th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th FC Man United 5th Valley United Socce… 2nd TFA-SGV 9th ALBION SC Antelope … 7th Central Coast Surf … 6th Oxnard United Socce… 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 4-2-1 · GD +11
Away
River Ridge Playfields
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.39 1.93 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:20 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +2
Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–1 1.98 1.94 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
03:50 PM
Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +15
Home
Moorpark HS · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.52 1.90 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM
Unico Futbol Club
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14
Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 1.95 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
02:05 PM
Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -65
Home
Calabasas HS · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
100%
8–0 2.99 2.03 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
12:10 PM
Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 4-2-1 · GD +11
Home
Moorpark HS · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.69 2.00 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
ALBION SC SCV
8th · 3-1-4 · GD +20
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–3 1.19 1.95 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Oaks FC 2
11th · 1-1-5 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.34 1.97 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
FC Man United
5th · 3-3-1 · GD +4
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.54 1.95 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Valley United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.66 1.88 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Central Coast United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +37
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.55 1.81 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -21
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.68 1.85 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.26 1.87 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
TFA-SGV
9th · 2-1-5 · GD -27
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.66 1.91 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +15
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.20 1.88 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Unico Futbol Club
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–1 2.65 1.91 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7700 392+37 213.00 WWWWW +0.36 -0.61 100% 1.1
2 Valley United Soccer Club 7610 283+25 192.71 DWWWW +0.05 -0.34 100% 2.0
3 LA Surf SC SFV 8512 2711+16 162.00 DWLLW -0.20 -0.03 55% 4.5
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7421 2312+11 142.00 WWLWD -0.23 -0.05 36% 5.0
5 FC Man United 7331 95+4 121.71 DDDWW -0.56 +0.10 5% 6.6
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6312 2712+15 101.67 WDLWW +0.48 -0.36 66% 4.1
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6303 1816+2 91.50 WWLLW -1.49 +0.48 0% 8.2
8 ALBION SC SCV 8314 4020+20 101.25 WLWLD +0.31 -0.41 37% 4.9
9 TFA-SGV 8215 1340-27 70.88 WLLLL +0.51 +0.04 0% 10.6
10 Unico Futbol Club 6114 822-14 40.67 DWLLL +0.30 +0.08 0% 10.4
11 Oaks FC 2 7115 1922-3 40.57 LLLWL -0.38 +0.15 0% 9.0
12 Dynamo 6105 526-21 30.50 LLLWL +0.20 +0.19 0% 11.6
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7007 267-65 00.00 LLLLL +0.78 +0.36 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.