LA Surf SC SFV
Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U14 · 13 teams · LA Surf SC SFV (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
River Ridge Playfields, Field 2 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.1 against · 1.39 expected points)
| Season so far | LA Surf SC SFV | Oxnard United Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-2 | 4-2-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L W D | D W L W W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 at Central Cal Aztecs 2 | 6–0 at Dynamo |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at Central Coast United Soccer Club | 0–4 at Central Coast United Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.28 | +1.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.20 | -0.23 |
Common opponents: Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 9–0; they 3–0. ALBION SC SCV — we 2–0; they 2–2. Oaks FC 2 — we 6–0; they 3–2. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 1–6; they 0–4. Dynamo — we 4–0; they 6–0.
Game plan
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 40%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at River Ridge Playfields.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf SC SFV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.89 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.11 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.89 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.78 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 27%
- 4th 27%
- 5th 21%
- 6th 17%
- 7th 6%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Coast United Soccer Club | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.75) | 56 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Valley United Soccer Club | 2.71 (+0.71) | 2nd (2.47) | 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
How the results connect
30 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link LA Surf SC SFV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 8th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Oxnard United Soccer Club 4th · 4-2-1 · GD +11 |
Away River Ridge Playfields |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.39 | 1.93 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 09:20 AM |
ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 7th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away Lancaster National Soccer Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–1 | 1.98 | 1.94 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 03:50 PM |
Central Coast Surf Soccer 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +15 |
Home Moorpark HS · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.52 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Unico Futbol Club 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14 |
Away Santa Barbara High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 1.95 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 02:05 PM |
Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th · 0-0-7 · GD -65 |
Home Calabasas HS · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 2.03 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 12:10 PM |
Oxnard United Soccer Club 4th · 4-2-1 · GD +11 |
Home Moorpark HS · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.69 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC SCV 8th · 3-1-4 · GD +20 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–3 | 1.19 | 1.95 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
Oaks FC 2 11th · 1-1-5 · GD -3 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.34 | 1.97 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
FC Man United 5th · 3-3-1 · GD +4 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
Valley United Soccer Club 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Central Coast United Soccer Club 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +37 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.55 | 1.81 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Dynamo 12th · 1-0-5 · GD -21 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
4–1 | 2.68 | 1.85 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 7th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.26 | 1.87 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
TFA-SGV 9th · 2-1-5 · GD -27 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.66 | 1.91 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
Central Coast Surf Soccer 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +15 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.20 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Unico Futbol Club 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–1 | 2.65 | 1.91 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Central Coast United Soccer Club | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | +37 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.36 | -0.61 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at Dynamo · Sun Nov 8 vs Oaks FC 2 See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 3 | +25 | 19 | 2.71 | DWWWW | +0.05 | -0.34 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Central Coast United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at Central Cal Aztecs 2 · Sun Nov 1 vs Unico Futbol Club See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | LA Surf SC SFV | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 16 | 2.00 | DWLLW | -0.20 | -0.03 | 55% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) · Sun Nov 1 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Oxnard United Soccer Club | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 14 | 2.00 | WWLWD | -0.23 | -0.05 | 36% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Oct 25 vs TFA-SGV · Sun Nov 1 at FC Man United See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Man United | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 12 | 1.71 | DDDWW | -0.56 | +0.10 | 5% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC SCV · Sat Oct 31 at Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sun Nov 1 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Central Coast Surf Soccer | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | +15 | 10 | 1.67 | WDLWW | +0.48 | -0.36 | 66% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dynamo · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Man United · Sun Nov 1 at LA Surf SC SFV See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | WWLLW | -1.49 | +0.48 | 0% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LA Surf SC SFV · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC SCV · Sun Nov 1 at Oaks FC 2 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | ALBION SC SCV | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 20 | +20 | 10 | 1.25 | WLWLD | +0.31 | -0.41 | 37% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Man United · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) · Sun Nov 1 at Dynamo See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | TFA-SGV | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 40 | -27 | 7 | 0.88 | WLLLL | +0.51 | +0.04 | 0% | 10.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Central Cal Aztecs 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Unico Futbol Club | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 4 | 0.67 | DWLLL | +0.30 | +0.08 | 0% | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Central Cal Aztecs 2 · Sat Oct 31 at Oaks FC 2 · Sun Nov 1 at Valley United Soccer Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Oaks FC 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLWL | -0.38 | +0.15 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Dynamo · Sat Oct 31 vs Unico Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Dynamo | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 26 | -21 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.20 | +0.19 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Oaks FC 2 · Sun Oct 25 at Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Coast United Soccer Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Central Cal Aztecs 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 67 | -65 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.78 | +0.36 | 0% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Unico Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at TFA-SGV See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.