TableChase Clubs

Central Coast Surf Soccer

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U14 · 13 teams · Central Coast Surf Soccer (all teams)

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6th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
+15 goal diff · 27–12
WDLWWlast 5
68% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1
+0.48 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:30 PM

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Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 1.67 PPG
vs
Dynamo
12th · 0.50 PPG

Talley Fields, Field #2 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.7 for, 1.1 against · 2.87 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast Surf SoccerDynamo
Position6th12th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-21-0-5
Points per game1.670.50
Goals for / game4.50.8
Goals against / game2.04.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)W W L D WL W L L L
Biggest win14–0 vs Central Cal Aztecs 24–3 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
Worst loss0–2 at Valley United Soccer Club0–6 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.67-2.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.48+0.20

Common opponents: Valley United Soccer Club — we 0–2; they 0–4. Oxnard United Soccer Club — we 4–4; they 0–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Dynamo average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.8); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Dynamo concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–6 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Valley United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • What a win does
    FC Man United sit 5th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above FC Man United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dynamo game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast Surf Soccer – Dynamo) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.86 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Win
1.86 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Draw
1.57 PPG		 6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.43 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
68% top 4
32% below the top 4
4.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 38%
  4. 4th 28%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Coast United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.75) 62 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 57 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Valley United Soccer Club 2.71 (+1.04) 2nd (2.47) 56 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
3 LA Surf SC SFV 2.00 (+0.33) 4th (1.91) 38 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 2.00 (+0.33) 5th (1.83) 38 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
5 FC Man United 1.71 (+0.04) 7th (1.58) A point next game

How the results connect

20 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast Surf Soccer to Dynamo through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us
2 favour them
+7.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 4–0 4–4 6–0 2–1 0–6 4–0 2–0 3–4 2–4 4–1 3–2 6–2 0–4 5–0 2–3 0–2 1–3 6–1 4–0 Central Coast Surf … 6th Valley United Socce… 2nd Oxnard United Socce… 4th Oaks FC 2 11th ALBION SC SCV 8th Central Coast Unite… 1st LA Surf SC SFV 3rd ALBION SC Antelope … 7th TFA-SGV 9th Dynamo 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.36 · 11th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:30 PM		 Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -21		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 5–1 2.87 1.84 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-3-1 · GD +4		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.87 1.84 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
03:50 PM		 LA Surf SC SFV
3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +16		 Away
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.29 1.78 Upside
Sat Nov 7
10:25 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14		 Away
Elings Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 4–1 2.59 1.86 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM		 TFA-SGV
9th · 2-1-5 · GD -27		 Away
Gladstone Middle School · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 5–1 2.75 1.94 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
09:30 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +25		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.88 1.85 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -65		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 9–0 2.99 1.94 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
4th · 4-2-1 · GD +11		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–2 1.78 1.93 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +37		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.33 1.82 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
8th · 3-1-4 · GD +20		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 3–3 1.23 1.79 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–2 2.09 1.80 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -14		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–1 2.75 1.86 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 1-1-5 · GD -3		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 3–2 2.19 1.87 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
12:00 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 4–2 2.38 1.90 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -21		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–1 2.77 1.94 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-3-1 · GD +4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–1 1.61 1.93 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +16		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–2 1.62 1.91 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
9th · 2-1-5 · GD -27		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 6–1 2.87 1.95 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7700 392+37 213.00 WWWWW +0.36 -0.61 100% 1.1
2 Valley United Soccer Club 7610 283+25 192.71 DWWWW +0.05 -0.34 100% 1.9
3 LA Surf SC SFV 8512 2711+16 162.00 DWLLW -0.20 -0.03 52% 4.5
4 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7421 2312+11 142.00 WWLWD -0.23 -0.05 35% 5.0
5 FC Man United 7331 95+4 121.71 DDDWW -0.56 +0.10 6% 6.6
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6312 2712+15 101.67 WDLWW +0.48 -0.36 68% 4.1
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6303 1816+2 91.50 WWLLW -1.49 +0.48 0% 8.2
8 ALBION SC SCV 8314 4020+20 101.25 WLWLD +0.31 -0.41 39% 4.9
9 TFA-SGV 8215 1340-27 70.88 WLLLL +0.51 +0.04 0% 10.6
10 Unico Futbol Club 6114 822-14 40.67 DWLLL +0.30 +0.08 0% 10.5
11 Oaks FC 2 7115 1922-3 40.57 LLLWL -0.38 +0.15 0% 9.0
12 Dynamo 6105 526-21 30.50 LLLWL +0.20 +0.19 0% 11.6
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7007 267-65 00.00 LLLLL +0.78 +0.36 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.