TableChase Clubs

TFA-SGV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U13 · 13 teams · TFA SGV (all teams)

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3rd
6-0-2 record · 8 played
2.25 points per game
+30 goal diff · 42–12
WWLWWlast 5
85% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3
+0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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TFA-SGV
3rd · 2.25 PPG
at
Oxnard United Soccer Club
6th · 1.71 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–2 (expected goals 6.6 for, 2.1 against · 2.76 expected points)

Season so farTFA-SGVOxnard United Soccer Club
Position3rd6th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-24-0-3
Points per game2.251.71
Goals for / game5.33.1
Goals against / game1.55.3
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W L W WW W L W L
Biggest win8–0 at LA Surf SC SFV7–1 vs ALBION SC SCV
Worst loss1–5 at Central Coast United Soccer Club0–12 at Central Coast United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.78-1.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.11+0.09

Common opponents: Dynamo — we 7–0; they 6–1. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 1–5; they 0–12. Oaks FC 2 — we 4–2; they 0–10. ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) — we 6–0; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Oxnard United Soccer Club concede 5.3/game; worst result 0–12 at Central Coast United Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 6–2.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at River Ridge Playfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TFA-SGV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.33 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.33 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.11 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 6–2 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st
85% top 4
15% below the top 4
3.3 average finish
  1. 1st 3%
  2. 2nd 17%
  3. 3rd 39%
  4. 4th 27%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3.00 (+0.75) 2nd (2.54) 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+0.32) 1st (2.65) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection

How the results connect

28 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link TFA-SGV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

23 favour us
3 even
2 favour them
+5.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–0 1–6 6–0 1–3 1–5 12–0 4–2 10–0 5–0 0–3 2–3 9–2 2–3 1–7 4–2 2–3 5–0 1–6 9–0 8–0 1–2 3–0 TFA-SGV 3rd Dynamo 12th ALBION SC Antelope … 7th Central Coast Unite… 2nd Oaks FC 2 4th Valley United Socce… 9th Unico Futbol Club 11th FC Man United 5th LA Surf SC SFV 8th ALBION SC SCV 10th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th Oxnard United Socce… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.41 · 12th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-3 · GD -15		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 6–2 2.76 2.31 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
12:30 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Home
Don Bosco Tech · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 7–1 2.96 2.37 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
Gladstone Middle School · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.41 2.28 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:40 AM		 Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -24		 Home
Gladstone Middle School · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 7–0 2.96 2.34 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
05:45 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -16		 Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 6–1 2.79 2.38 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +42		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
25%		 2–3 0.91 2.27 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
4th · 5-0-2 · GD +26		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 3–2 1.71 2.23 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -27		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–0 2.94 2.28 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 5-0-2 · GD +19		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 2–2 1.44 2.23 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 4–1 2.51 2.24 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
9th · 2-0-5 · GD -15		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.87 2.28 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-3 · GD -15		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 7–1 2.87 2.31 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 3-0-5 · GD -16		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.86 2.33 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–1 2.92 2.36 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–2 1.09 2.30 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -27		 Away
Turf - West Ranch High School · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 5–1 2.88 2.33 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6600 304+26 183.00 WWWWW -0.12 -0.23 96% 2.2
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 464+42 182.57 WLWWW +0.05 -0.54 100% 1.4
3 TFA-SGV 8602 4212+30 182.25 WWLWW +0.11 -0.41 85% 3.3
4 Oaks FC 2 7502 3610+26 152.14 WWLWL -0.02 -0.27 65% 3.9
5 FC Man United 7502 289+19 152.14 LWWWW +0.27 -0.36 54% 4.2
6 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7403 2237-15 121.71 LWLWW +0.09 +0.10 0% 6.8
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6303 1516-1 91.50 WWLLL -1.12 +0.45 0% 6.9
8 LA Surf SC SFV 8305 1531-16 91.13 LLWLW +0.31 +0.04 0% 8.4
9 Valley United Soccer Club 7205 924-15 60.86 LWLWL +0.04 +0.14 0% 9.2
10 ALBION SC SCV 8206 936-27 60.75 WLWLL -0.01 +0.24 0% 10.9
11 Unico Futbol Club 6105 1329-16 30.50 LWLLL +0.50 -0.01 0% 9.6
12 Dynamo 6105 630-24 30.50 LLLWL -0.62 +0.50 0% 12.2
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 837-29 30.43 LLLLL +0.29 +0.23 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.