TableChase Clubs

Central Coast Surf Soccer

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U13 · 13 teams · Central Coast Surf Soccer (all teams)

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1st
6-0-0 record · 6 played
3.00 points per game
+26 goal diff · 30–4
WWWWWlast 5
97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.2
-0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:30 AM

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Central Coast Surf Soccer
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
Dynamo
12th · 0.50 PPG

Talley Fields, Field #2 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–0 (expected goals 6.6 for, 0.8 against · 2.96 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast Surf SoccerDynamo
Position1st12th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-01-0-5
Points per game3.000.50
Goals for / game5.01.0
Goals against / game0.75.0
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W W W WL W L L L
Biggest win11–0 at Oxnard United Soccer Club3–2 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
Worst loss—0–7 vs TFA-SGV
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.69-2.78
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.12-0.62

Common opponents: Valley United Soccer Club — we 3–0; they 0–3. Oxnard United Soccer Club — we 11–0; they 1–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Dynamo average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 3.1); blanked in 3 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Dynamo concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–7 vs TFA-SGV.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 98% chance; likely score 6–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dynamo game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast Surf Soccer – Dynamo) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.71 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.57 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 6–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

25% finish 1st
97% top 4
3% below the top 4
2.2 average finish
  1. 1st 25%
  2. 2nd 47%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

20 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast Surf Soccer to Dynamo through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us
1 favour them
+8.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 3–0 11–0 6–1 7–1 2–6 2–3 0–3 3–0 1–7 0–4 6–2 2–4 1–4 0–5 7–0 1–6 4–2 2–4 4–0 Central Coast Surf … 1st Valley United Socce… 9th Oxnard United Socce… 6th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th ALBION SC SCV 10th Oaks FC 2 4th ALBION SC Antelope … 7th LA Surf SC SFV 8th TFA-SGV 3rd Dynamo 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 9th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:30 AM		 Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -24		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 6–0 2.96 2.99 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
02:30 PM		 FC Man United
5th · 5-0-2 · GD +19		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.88 2.86 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
05:35 PM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 3-0-5 · GD -16		 Away
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–1 2.76 2.84 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
12:10 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -16		 Away
Elings Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 5–1 2.80 2.84 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM		 TFA-SGV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +30		 Away
Gladstone Middle School · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.40 2.71 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
9th · 2-0-5 · GD -15		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 4–0 2.86 2.72 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 5–0 2.92 2.74 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-3 · GD -15		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 6–1 2.88 2.75 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
10:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +42		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.80 2.62 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -27		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 5–0 2.88 2.63 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.54 2.63 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -16		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 6–1 2.89 2.64 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
4th · 5-0-2 · GD +26		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.50 2.58 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
02:30 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD -1		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.71 2.59 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -24		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 5–0 2.92 2.60 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 5-0-2 · GD +19		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–1 1.58 2.56 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 3-0-5 · GD -16		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.86 2.57 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +30		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–2 1.73 2.54 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6600 304+26 183.00 WWWWW -0.12 -0.23 97% 2.2
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 464+42 182.57 WLWWW +0.05 -0.54 100% 1.4
3 TFA-SGV 8602 4212+30 182.25 WWLWW +0.11 -0.41 86% 3.3
4 Oaks FC 2 7502 3610+26 152.14 WWLWL -0.02 -0.27 67% 4.0
5 FC Man United 7502 289+19 152.14 LWWWW +0.27 -0.36 51% 4.2
6 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7403 2237-15 121.71 LWLWW +0.09 +0.10 0% 6.8
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6303 1516-1 91.50 WWLLL -1.12 +0.45 0% 6.9
8 LA Surf SC SFV 8305 1531-16 91.13 LLWLW +0.31 +0.04 0% 8.4
9 Valley United Soccer Club 7205 924-15 60.86 LWLWL +0.04 +0.14 0% 9.2
10 ALBION SC SCV 8206 936-27 60.75 WLWLL -0.01 +0.24 0% 10.9
11 Unico Futbol Club 6105 1329-16 30.50 LWLLL +0.50 -0.01 0% 9.5
12 Dynamo 6105 630-24 30.50 LLLWL -0.62 +0.50 0% 12.2
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 837-29 30.43 LLLLL +0.29 +0.23 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.