FC Man United

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Turf - West Ranch High School, Stadium ↗ · turf

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.6 for, 1.1 against · 2.78 expected points)

Common opponents: Unico Futbol Club — we 6–1; they 3–2. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 1–3; they 0–9. Oaks FC 2 — we 0–2; they 0–7. Valley United Soccer Club — we 7–1; they 2–4. LA Surf SC SFV — we 6–0; they 0–4. Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 5–0; they 3–0.

• They struggle to score
  ALBION SC SCV average 1.1 goals/game (league avg 3.1); blanked in 4 of 8.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Oaks FC 2.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 4–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Away game
  Kickoff 03:10 PM at Turf - West Ranch High School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Oaks FC 2 sit 4th on 2.14 PPG; we are on 2.14.

  A point moves us above Oaks FC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC SCV game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Man United – ALBION SC SCV) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

1. 1st 1%
2. 2nd 6%
3. 3rd 18%
4. 4th 29%
5. 5th 47%
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th
11. 11th
12. 12th
13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).