TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U13 · 13 teams · ALBION SC Antelope Valley (all teams)

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7th
3-0-3 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
-1 goal diff · 15–16
WWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
-1.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:30 PM

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ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 1.50 PPG
vs
LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1.13 PPG

Lancaster National Soccer Center, 34 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.2 for, 2.0 against · 1.98 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)LA Surf SC SFV
Position7th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-33-0-5
Points per game1.501.13
Goals for / game2.51.9
Goals against / game2.73.9
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)L L L W WW L W L L
Biggest win6–2 at Central Cal Aztecs 24–0 vs ALBION SC SCV
Worst loss0–6 at TFA-SGV0–8 vs TFA-SGV
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.43-1.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.12+0.31

Common opponents: Valley United Soccer Club — we 3–0; they 4–1. Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 6–2; they 1–2. Dynamo — we 2–3; they 6–2. TFA-SGV — we 0–6; they 0–8.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at TFA-SGV.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 61% / draw 16% / loss 23%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Oxnard United Soccer Club sit 6th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Oxnard United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf SC SFV game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) – LA Surf SC SFV) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.71 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Win
1.71 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Draw
1.43 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Loss
1.29 PPG		 8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 40%
  7. 7th 38%
  8. 8th 16%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3.00 (+1.50) 2nd (2.54) 63 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.07) 1st (2.65) 53 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 TFA-SGV 2.25 (+0.75) 3rd (2.33) 45 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
4 Oaks FC 2 2.14 (+0.64) 4th (2.24) 43 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 FC Man United 2.14 (+0.64) 5th (2.21) 43 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
6 Oxnard United Soccer Club 1.71 (+0.21) 6th (1.31) A point next game

How the results connect

28 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) to LA Surf SC SFV through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
4 even
11 favour them
-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 1–4 0–6 8–0 2–3 2–6 6–2 2–1 4–2 4–0 0–7 1–3 7–1 0–4 2–3 6–0 6–1 3–2 0–8 8–0 2–9 4–2 ALBION SC Antelope … 7th Valley United Socce… 9th TFA-SGV 3rd Dynamo 12th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th Oxnard United Socce… 6th Unico Futbol Club 11th Oaks FC 2 4th ALBION SC SCV 10th FC Man United 5th Central Coast Unite… 2nd LA Surf SC SFV 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.45 · 2nd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:30 PM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 3-0-5 · GD -16		 Home
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 3–2 1.98 1.57 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
10:15 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -27		 Away
Central Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.10 1.63 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Oaks FC 2
4th · 5-0-2 · GD +26		 Away
River Ridge		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.28 1.48 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 5-0-2 · GD +19		 Home
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.56 1.39 Upside
Sun Nov 15
08:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
9th · 2-0-5 · GD -15		 Home
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.05 1.45 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.48 1.54 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -16		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 3–2 1.70 1.55 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-3 · GD -15		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 3–3 1.51 1.55 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
08:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +42		 Home
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–4 0.15 1.45 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.36 1.39 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -24		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.49 1.45 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +30		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.39 1.39 Upside
Sun Apr 11
10:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +42		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.08 1.32 Upside
Sat Apr 17
02:30 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away
Talley Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.22 1.27 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 3-0-5 · GD -16		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–2 1.65 1.29 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -27		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 3–1 2.36 1.34 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
4th · 5-0-2 · GD +26		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–4 0.46 1.30 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 5-0-2 · GD +19		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.37 1.26 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6600 304+26 183.00 WWWWW -0.12 -0.23 97% 2.2
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 464+42 182.57 WLWWW +0.05 -0.54 100% 1.4
3 TFA-SGV 8602 4212+30 182.25 WWLWW +0.11 -0.41 84% 3.4
4 Oaks FC 2 7502 3610+26 152.14 WWLWL -0.02 -0.27 67% 3.9
5 FC Man United 7502 289+19 152.14 LWWWW +0.27 -0.36 52% 4.2
6 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7403 2237-15 121.71 LWLWW +0.09 +0.10 0% 6.8
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6303 1516-1 91.50 WWLLL -1.12 +0.45 0% 6.9
8 LA Surf SC SFV 8305 1531-16 91.13 LLWLW +0.31 +0.04 0% 8.4
9 Valley United Soccer Club 7205 924-15 60.86 LWLWL +0.04 +0.14 0% 9.3
10 ALBION SC SCV 8206 936-27 60.75 WLWLL -0.01 +0.24 0% 10.9
11 Unico Futbol Club 6105 1329-16 30.50 LWLLL +0.50 -0.01 0% 9.4
12 Dynamo 6105 630-24 30.50 LLLWL -0.62 +0.50 0% 12.2
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 837-29 30.43 LLLLL +0.29 +0.23 0% 12.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.