TableChase Clubs

LA Surf SC SFV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U13 · 13 teams · LA Surf SC SFV (all teams)

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8th
3-0-5 record · 8 played
1.13 points per game
-16 goal diff · 15–31
LLWLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.4
+0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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LA Surf SC SFV
8th · 1.13 PPG
at
Oxnard United Soccer Club
6th · 1.71 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 3–4 (expected goals 3.1 for, 4.0 against · 1.05 expected points)

Season so farLA Surf SC SFVOxnard United Soccer Club
Position8th6th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-54-0-3
Points per game1.131.71
Goals for / game1.93.1
Goals against / game3.95.3
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless43
Form (recent first)W L W L LW W L W L
Biggest win4–0 vs ALBION SC SCV7–1 vs ALBION SC SCV
Worst loss0–8 vs TFA-SGV0–12 at Central Coast United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.36-1.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.31+0.09

Common opponents: Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 1–2; they 6–1. ALBION SC SCV — we 4–0; they 7–1. Oaks FC 2 — we 0–4; they 0–10. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 0–8; they 0–12. Dynamo — we 6–2; they 6–1.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Oxnard United Soccer Club concede 5.3/game; worst result 0–12 at Central Coast United Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–4 at Oaks FC 2, 0–6 vs FC Man United, 0–8 vs TFA-SGV, 0–8 at Central Coast United Soccer Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at River Ridge Playfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf SC SFV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1
Win
1.33 PPG		 8th— holds 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Draw
1.11 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1
Loss
1.00 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–4 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 17%
  8. 8th 33%
  9. 9th 24%
  10. 10th 12%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3.00 (+1.87) 2nd (2.54) 63 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 2.57 (+1.44) 1st (2.65) 53 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 TFA-SGV 2.25 (+1.12) 3rd (2.33) 45 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
4 Oaks FC 2 2.14 (+1.01) 4th (2.24) 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 FC Man United 2.14 (+1.01) 5th (2.21) 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
6 Oxnard United Soccer Club 1.71 (+0.58) 6th (1.31) 33 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 1.50 (+0.37) 7th (1.26) 27 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

30 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link LA Surf SC SFV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
1 even
13 favour them
+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–2 1–6 4–0 1–7 0–8 12–0 0–4 10–0 1–2 1–6 0–8 1–5 4–1 3–0 4–2 1–2 11–0 0–3 1–3 0–6 0–2 9–2 LA Surf SC SFV 8th Dynamo 12th ALBION SC SCV 10th Central Coast Unite… 2nd Oaks FC 2 4th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th TFA-SGV 3rd Valley United Socce… 9th FC Man United 5th Central Coast Surf … 1st ALBION SC Antelope … 7th Oxnard United Socce… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 7th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-3 · GD -15		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 3–4 1.05 1.12 Upside
Sun Oct 25
12:30 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD -1		 Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 2–3 0.86 1.09 Upside
Sun Nov 1
05:35 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Home
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.18 1.01 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:30 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -16		 Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–3 1.26 1.03 Upside
Sat Nov 14
03:50 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 1-0-6 · GD -29		 Home
Calabasas HS · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 3–1 2.19 1.12 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
02:05 PM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
6th · 4-0-3 · GD -15		 Home
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 3–3 1.43 1.14 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -27		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–2 1.74 1.18 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
4th · 5-0-2 · GD +26		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.24 1.12 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 5-0-2 · GD +19		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 1–4 0.19 1.07 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
9th · 2-0-5 · GD -15		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.37 1.08 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +42		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–6 0.06 1.03 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -24		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 3–2 1.90 1.07 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
7th · 3-0-3 · GD -1		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 2–2 1.17 1.08 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
3rd · 6-0-2 · GD +30		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.10 1.03 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.10 0.99 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -16		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 3–2 1.63 1.02 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6600 304+26 183.00 WWWWW -0.12 -0.23 96% 2.2
2 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7601 464+42 182.57 WLWWW +0.05 -0.54 100% 1.4
3 TFA-SGV 8602 4212+30 182.25 WWLWW +0.11 -0.41 85% 3.3
4 Oaks FC 2 7502 3610+26 152.14 WWLWL -0.02 -0.27 65% 3.9
5 FC Man United 7502 289+19 152.14 LWWWW +0.27 -0.36 54% 4.2
6 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7403 2237-15 121.71 LWLWW +0.09 +0.10 0% 6.8
7 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6303 1516-1 91.50 WWLLL -1.12 +0.45 0% 6.9
8 LA Surf SC SFV 8305 1531-16 91.13 LLWLW +0.31 +0.04 0% 8.4
9 Valley United Soccer Club 7205 924-15 60.86 LWLWL +0.04 +0.14 0% 9.2
10 ALBION SC SCV 8206 936-27 60.75 WLWLL -0.01 +0.24 0% 10.9
11 Unico Futbol Club 6105 1329-16 30.50 LWLLL +0.50 -0.01 0% 9.6
12 Dynamo 6105 630-24 30.50 LLLWL -0.62 +0.50 0% 12.2
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7106 837-29 30.43 LLLLL +0.29 +0.23 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.