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Laguna United

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U16 · 16 teams · Laguna United (all teams)

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13th
0-1-2 record · 3 played
0.33 points per game
-4 goal diff · 5–9
LDLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.0
+0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Laguna United
13th · 0.33 PPG
at
Inland Surf
14th · 0.33 PPG

Central City Park #3, Central City Park #3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.1 against · 1.43 expected points)

Season so farLaguna UnitedInland Surf
Position13th14th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-20-1-2
Points per game0.330.33
Goals for / game1.71.0
Goals against / game3.03.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L D LL L D
Biggest win——
Worst loss1–4 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC0–5 vs California Football Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.67-0.91
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.10+0.52

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Inland Surf average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 41%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Central City Park #3.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    City SC Southwest sit 12th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.33.

    A win moves us above City SC Southwest on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Inland Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Laguna United – Inland Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.50 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2
Win
1.00 PPG
12th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 1 13th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2
Loss
0.25 PPG
14th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 15%
  13. 13th 21%
  14. 14th 23%
  15. 15th 21%
  16. 16th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3.00 (+2.67) 1st (2.43) 44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Riverside 2.33 (+2.00) 4th (1.72) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.25 (+1.92) 2nd (1.96) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 CITY SC San Marcos 2.00 (+1.67) 5th (1.68) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5 Elite FC 2.00 (+1.67) 8th (1.56) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6 City SC - San Diego 2.00 (+1.67) 6th (1.68) 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 1.75 (+1.42) 3rd (1.82) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 BOCA OC 1.33 (+1.00) 9th (1.48) 19 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 Reds FC 1.33 (+1.00) 11th (1.32) 19 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10 California Football Academy 1.00 (+0.67) 7th (1.67) Win next game
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 1.00 (+0.67) 10th (1.37) Win next game
12 City SC Southwest 1.00 (+0.67) 12th (1.03) Win next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 6th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Inland Surf
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Away
Central City Park #3
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.43 0.61 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:45 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +7
Away
San Bernardino Valley College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.50 0.59 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:50 PM
California Football Academy
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Away
Aliso Niguel High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.63 0.59 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.75 0.62 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.94 0.66 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.40 0.85 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Reds FC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.01 0.87 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Elite FC
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.07 0.88 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.28 0.92 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 0.91 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.44 0.88 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Away
Hickman Fields
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–2 1.31 0.91 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 175+12 123.00 WWWW +0.03 -0.19 99% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 53+2 72.33 DWW -0.30 +0.02 36% 5.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4301 115+6 92.25 WWWL +0.08 -0.12 71% 3.7
4 CITY SC San Marcos 3201 85+3 62.00 LWW -0.25 -0.00 31% 6.2
5 Elite FC 3201 75+2 62.00 WLW -0.48 +0.07 19% 7.4
6 City SC - San Diego 3201 55+0 62.00 WLW +0.76 -0.23 31% 6.3
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4211 147+7 71.75 DWLW -0.45 +0.08 53% 4.8
8 BOCA OC 3111 89-1 41.33 WDL +0.54 -0.15 13% 8.1
9 Reds FC 3111 45-1 41.33 DWL +0.18 -0.05 6% 9.7
10 California Football Academy 3102 74+3 31.00 LWL +0.36 -0.15 33% 6.1
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3102 55+0 31.00 WLL +0.04 -0.03 7% 9.1
12 City SC Southwest 3102 510-5 31.00 LLW -0.17 +0.04 0% 12.2
13 Laguna United 3012 59-4 10.33 LDL +0.10 +0.00 0% 13.0
14 Inland Surf 3012 39-6 10.33 DLL +0.52 -0.09 0% 13.5
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 15-4 00.00 LL +0.32 -0.03 0% 12.9
16 Strikers FC North 3003 014-14 00.00 LLL +0.06 +0.12 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.