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ALBION SC Santa Ana

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U16 · 16 teams · ALBION SC Santa Ana (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+12 goal diff · 17–5
WWWWlast 4
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3
+0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
ALBION SC Riverside
2nd · 2.33 PPG

Galway Downs, #18 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.6 against · 1.87 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa AnaALBION SC Riverside
Position1st2nd
Record (W-D-L)4-0-02-1-0
Points per game3.002.33
Goals for / game4.31.7
Goals against / game1.31.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WW W D
Biggest win4–0 vs City SC Southwest2–1 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.67+0.29
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.03-0.30

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    ALBION SC Riverside concede only 1.0/game with 0 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 56% / draw 19% / loss 25%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Galway Downs.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Riverside game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Ana – ALBION SC Riverside) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

81% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.3 average finish
  1. 1st 81%
  2. 2nd 11%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Ana to ALBION SC Riverside through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–2 3–3 1–2 ALBION SC Santa Ana 1st BOCA OC 8th Laguna United 13th ALBION SC Riverside 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.19 · 15th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
ALBION SC Riverside
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Away
Galway Downs
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.87 2.77 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
04:45 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +6
Away
RJRSP
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.62 2.58 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Reds FC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
Orange County Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.16 2.52 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 2.51 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 2.46 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.87 2.40 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.26 2.39 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.03 2.36 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.92 2.40 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Laguna United
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 2.41 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.70 2.43 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 175+12 123.00 WWWW +0.03 -0.19 99% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 53+2 72.33 DWW -0.30 +0.02 35% 6.0
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4301 115+6 92.25 WWWL +0.08 -0.12 69% 3.8
4 CITY SC San Marcos 3201 85+3 62.00 LWW -0.25 -0.00 32% 6.1
5 Elite FC 3201 75+2 62.00 WLW -0.48 +0.07 20% 7.3
6 City SC - San Diego 3201 55+0 62.00 WLW +0.76 -0.23 31% 6.2
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4211 147+7 71.75 DWLW -0.45 +0.08 53% 4.7
8 BOCA OC 3111 89-1 41.33 WDL +0.54 -0.15 14% 8.1
9 Reds FC 3111 45-1 41.33 DWL +0.18 -0.05 4% 9.7
10 California Football Academy 3102 74+3 31.00 LWL +0.36 -0.15 36% 6.0
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3102 55+0 31.00 WLL +0.04 -0.03 7% 9.2
12 City SC Southwest 3102 510-5 31.00 LLW -0.17 +0.04 0% 12.2
13 Laguna United 3012 59-4 10.33 LDL +0.10 +0.00 0% 13.1
14 Inland Surf 3012 39-6 10.33 DLL +0.52 -0.09 0% 13.5
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 15-4 00.00 LL +0.32 -0.03 0% 12.9
16 Strikers FC North 3003 014-14 00.00 LLL +0.06 +0.12 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.