BOCA OC
Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U16 · 16 teams · BOCA OC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field), El Rancho Charter School Upper 11v11 Field ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.7 against · 1.98 expected points)
| Season so far | BOCA OC | ALBION SC San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 15th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-1 | 0-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W | L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at CITY SC San Marcos | — |
| Worst loss | 2–6 at ALBION SC Santa Ana | 0–3 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.00 | -0.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.54 | +0.32 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
ALBION SC San Diego average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 1 of 2.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 60% / draw 18% / loss 22%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire sit 7th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.33.A win moves us above FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC San Diego game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BOCA OC – ALBION SC San Diego) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.75 PPG |
8th— holds | 5th▲ up 3 | 8th— holds |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
8th— holds | 5th▲ up 3 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
11th▼ down 3 | 11th▼ down 3 | 12th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd 6%
- 4th 7%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 12%
- 10th 12%
- 11th 10%
- 12th 6%
- 13th 3%
- 14th 3%
- 15th 1%
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 3.00 (+1.67) | 1st (2.43) | 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 2 | ALBION SC Riverside | 2.33 (+1.00) | 4th (1.72) | 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 3 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 2.25 (+0.92) | 2nd (1.96) | 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 4 | CITY SC San Marcos | 2.00 (+0.67) | 5th (1.68) | 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 5 | Elite FC | 2.00 (+0.67) | 8th (1.56) | 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 6 | City SC - San Diego | 2.00 (+0.67) | 6th (1.68) | 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 7 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 1.75 (+0.42) | 3rd (1.82) | Win next game |
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.15 · 13th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC San Diego 15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
City SC Southwest 12th · 1-0-2 · GD -5 |
Away Patricia Birdsall Sport Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.69 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
Elite FC 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Away Don Lugo High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–2 | 1.12 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 7th · 2-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–3 | 1.09 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
Strikers FC North 16th · 0-0-3 · GD -14 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.48 | 1.54 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 02:00 PM |
City SC - San Diego 6th · 2-0-1 · GD +0 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–2 | 1.46 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM |
California Football Academy 10th · 1-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.20 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Riverside 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +2 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Total Futbol Academy - OC 11th · 1-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.25 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM |
Reds FC 9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.65 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 11:50 AM |
Inland Surf 14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–1 | 2.12 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–2 | 1.06 | 1.48 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | +0.03 | -0.19 | 99% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Riverside · Sat Oct 31 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 7 at Reds FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | ALBION SC Riverside | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -0.30 | +0.02 | 35% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sun Nov 1 vs City SC - San Diego · Sat Nov 7 at City SC Southwest See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | +0.08 | -0.12 | 71% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Elite FC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sat Nov 7 at CITY SC San Marcos See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CITY SC San Marcos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.25 | -0.00 | 32% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Strikers FC North · Sun Oct 25 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Nov 1 at California Football Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Elite FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.48 | +0.07 | 20% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sat Oct 31 at Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sat Nov 7 vs BOCA OC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | City SC - San Diego | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.76 | -0.23 | 30% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sun Oct 25 vs CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Nov 1 at ALBION SC Riverside See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 7 | 1.75 | DWLW | -0.45 | +0.08 | 54% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at California Football Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Laguna United · Sat Nov 7 at Total Futbol Academy - OC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | BOCA OC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | WDL | +0.54 | -0.15 | 15% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Oct 31 at City SC Southwest · Sat Nov 7 at Elite FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Reds FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | DWL | +0.18 | -0.05 | 4% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC Southwest · Sat Oct 31 at Strikers FC North · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | California Football Academy | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.36 | -0.15 | 32% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sun Nov 1 vs CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Nov 8 vs Laguna United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Total Futbol Academy - OC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.04 | -0.03 | 7% | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC - San Diego · Sat Oct 31 vs Elite FC · Sat Nov 7 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | City SC Southwest | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.17 | +0.04 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Reds FC · Sat Oct 31 vs BOCA OC · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Riverside See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Laguna United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | +0.10 | +0.00 | 0% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Inland Surf · Sat Oct 31 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sun Nov 8 at California Football Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Inland Surf | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.52 | -0.09 | 0% | 13.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Laguna United · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC - San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | ALBION SC San Diego | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.32 | -0.03 | 0% | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BOCA OC · Sat Oct 31 vs Inland Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Strikers FC North See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Strikers FC North | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.06 | +0.12 | 0% | 15.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CITY SC San Marcos · Sat Oct 31 vs Reds FC · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.