California Football Academy
Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U16 · 16 teams · California Football Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM
Aliso Niguel High School, Stadium Field ↗ · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.2 against · 1.47 expected points)
| Season so far | California Football Academy | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 2-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L | W L W D |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at Inland Surf | 7–0 at Strikers FC North |
| Worst loss | 0–1 at City SC - San Diego | 2–3 at City SC - San Diego |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.57 | +0.87 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.36 | -0.45 |
Common opponents: City SC - San Diego — we 0–1; they 2–3. Inland Surf — we 5–0; they 2–2.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at City SC - San Diego.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 42% / draw 19% / loss 38%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Reds FC sit 9th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Reds FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (California Football Academy – FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 3 | 8th▲ up 2 | 9th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
12th▼ down 2 | 11th▼ down 1 | 15th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 12%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 8%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 4%
- 12th 2%
- 13th 1%
- 14th <1%
- 15th <1%
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.43) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 2 | ALBION SC Riverside | 2.33 (+1.33) | 4th (1.72) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 2.25 (+1.25) | 2nd (1.96) | 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | CITY SC San Marcos | 2.00 (+1.00) | 5th (1.68) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 5 | Elite FC | 2.00 (+1.00) | 8th (1.56) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | City SC - San Diego | 2.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.68) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 7 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 1.75 (+0.75) | 3rd (1.82) | 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 8 | BOCA OC | 1.33 (+0.33) | 9th (1.48) | A point next game |
| 9 | Reds FC | 1.33 (+0.33) | 11th (1.32) | A point next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link California Football Academy to FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.15 · 14th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 03:30 PM |
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 7th · 2-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Aliso Niguel High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–2 | 1.47 | 1.12 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 10:25 AM |
CITY SC San Marcos 4th · 2-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home Aliso Niguel High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.64 | 1.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 01:50 PM |
Laguna United 13th · 0-1-2 · GD -4 |
Home Aliso Niguel High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
Total Futbol Academy - OC 11th · 1-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
Reds FC 9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Riverside 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +2 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM |
BOCA OC 8th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.61 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Strikers FC North 16th · 0-0-3 · GD -14 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.60 | 1.61 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Elite FC 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +6 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 03:45 PM |
ALBION SC San Diego 15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home Vista Hermosa Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.20 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
City SC Southwest 12th · 1-0-2 · GD -5 |
Away Patricia Birdsall Sport Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.67 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Santa Ana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | +0.03 | -0.19 | 99% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Riverside · Sat Oct 31 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sat Nov 7 at Reds FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | ALBION SC Riverside | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -0.30 | +0.02 | 34% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sun Nov 1 vs City SC - San Diego · Sat Nov 7 at City SC Southwest See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | +0.08 | -0.12 | 71% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Elite FC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana · Sat Nov 7 at CITY SC San Marcos See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | CITY SC San Marcos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.25 | -0.00 | 31% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Strikers FC North · Sun Oct 25 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Nov 1 at California Football Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Elite FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.48 | +0.07 | 19% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire · Sat Oct 31 at Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sat Nov 7 vs BOCA OC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | City SC - San Diego | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.76 | -0.23 | 30% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC · Sun Oct 25 vs CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Nov 1 at ALBION SC Riverside See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 7 | 1.75 | DWLW | -0.45 | +0.08 | 55% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at California Football Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Laguna United · Sat Nov 7 at Total Futbol Academy - OC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | BOCA OC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | WDL | +0.54 | -0.15 | 16% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Oct 31 at City SC Southwest · Sat Nov 7 at Elite FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Reds FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | DWL | +0.18 | -0.05 | 4% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC Southwest · Sat Oct 31 at Strikers FC North · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | California Football Academy | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.36 | -0.15 | 33% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sun Nov 1 vs CITY SC San Marcos · Sun Nov 8 vs Laguna United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Total Futbol Academy - OC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.04 | -0.03 | 7% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC - San Diego · Sat Oct 31 vs Elite FC · Sat Nov 7 vs FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | City SC Southwest | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.17 | +0.04 | 1% | 12.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Reds FC · Sat Oct 31 vs BOCA OC · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Riverside See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Laguna United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | +0.10 | +0.00 | 0% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Inland Surf · Sat Oct 31 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire · Sun Nov 8 at California Football Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Inland Surf | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.52 | -0.09 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Laguna United · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC - San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | ALBION SC San Diego | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.32 | -0.03 | 0% | 12.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BOCA OC · Sat Oct 31 vs Inland Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Strikers FC North See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Strikers FC North | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.06 | +0.12 | 0% | 15.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CITY SC San Marcos · Sat Oct 31 vs Reds FC · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.