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City SC Southwest

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U16 · 16 teams · City SC Southwest (all teams)

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12th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-5 goal diff · 5–10
LLWlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.3
-0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM

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City SC Southwest
12th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Reds FC
9th · 1.33 PPG

Patricia Birdsall Sport Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.1 against · 1.25 expected points)

Season so farCity SC SouthwestReds FC
Position12th9th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-21-1-1
Points per game1.001.33
Goals for / game1.71.3
Goals against / game3.31.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L LL W D
Biggest win3–0 vs Strikers FC North2–1 vs ALBION SC San Diego
Worst loss0–4 at ALBION SC Santa Ana1–3 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.74-0.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.17+0.18

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at ALBION SC Santa Ana.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 35%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Total Futbol Academy - OC sit 11th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Total Futbol Academy - OC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Reds FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (City SC Southwest – Reds FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 15th▼ down 3
Win
1.50 PPG
8th▲ up 4 9th▲ up 3 11th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Loss
0.75 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 15th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 12%
  12. 12th 17%
  13. 13th 20%
  14. 14th 16%
  15. 15th 14%
  16. 16th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.43) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Riverside 2.33 (+1.33) 4th (1.72) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.25 (+1.25) 2nd (1.96) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 CITY SC San Marcos 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.68) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
5 Elite FC 2.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.56) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 City SC - San Diego 2.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.68) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 1.75 (+0.75) 3rd (1.82) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 BOCA OC 1.33 (+0.33) 9th (1.48) A point next game
9 Reds FC 1.33 (+0.33) 11th (1.32) A point next game
10 California Football Academy 1.00 (+0.00) 7th (1.67) A point next game
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 1.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.37) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 4th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:45 AM
Reds FC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Home
Patricia Birdsall Sport Park
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.25 1.06 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
BOCA OC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Home
Patricia Birdsall Sport Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.14 1.08 Upside
Sat Nov 7
07:00 PM
ALBION SC Riverside
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Home
Patricia Birdsall Sport Park
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.98 1.06 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:15 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +7
Away
RJRSP
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.48 0.98 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Elite FC
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.77 0.95 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.70 1.04 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.28 1.06 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.16 1.07 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Laguna United
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.53 1.11 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.50 1.06 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 1.04 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Home
Patricia Birdsall Sport Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 1.03 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 175+12 123.00 WWWW +0.03 -0.19 99% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 53+2 72.33 DWW -0.30 +0.02 35% 5.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4301 115+6 92.25 WWWL +0.08 -0.12 71% 3.7
4 CITY SC San Marcos 3201 85+3 62.00 LWW -0.25 -0.00 32% 6.1
5 Elite FC 3201 75+2 62.00 WLW -0.48 +0.07 19% 7.4
6 City SC - San Diego 3201 55+0 62.00 WLW +0.76 -0.23 30% 6.3
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4211 147+7 71.75 DWLW -0.45 +0.08 54% 4.7
8 BOCA OC 3111 89-1 41.33 WDL +0.54 -0.15 14% 8.2
9 Reds FC 3111 45-1 41.33 DWL +0.18 -0.05 5% 9.7
10 California Football Academy 3102 74+3 31.00 LWL +0.36 -0.15 33% 6.1
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3102 55+0 31.00 WLL +0.04 -0.03 7% 9.1
12 City SC Southwest 3102 510-5 31.00 LLW -0.17 +0.04 0% 12.3
13 Laguna United 3012 59-4 10.33 LDL +0.10 +0.00 0% 13.0
14 Inland Surf 3012 39-6 10.33 DLL +0.52 -0.09 0% 13.5
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 15-4 00.00 LL +0.32 -0.03 0% 12.9
16 Strikers FC North 3003 014-14 00.00 LLL +0.06 +0.12 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.