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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U16 · 16 teams · FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+6 goal diff · 11–5
WWWLlast 4
71% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.7
+0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
3rd · 2.25 PPG
at
Elite FC
5th · 2.00 PPG

Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park, Field #5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.8 against · 1.60 expected points)

Season so farFLYTE SC- Inland EmpireElite FC
Position3rd5th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-12-0-1
Points per game2.252.00
Goals for / game2.82.3
Goals against / game1.31.7
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W W WW L W
Biggest win3–0 vs ALBION SC San Diego4–0 vs Strikers FC North
Worst loss2–3 at FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire1–4 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.82+0.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.08-0.48

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 47% / draw 21% / loss 33%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Riverside sit 2nd on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Riverside on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Elite FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FLYTE SC- Inland Empire – Elite FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Win
2.40 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 6th▼ down 3
Loss
1.80 PPG
6th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st
71% top 4
29% below the top 4
3.7 average finish
  1. 1st 7%
  2. 2nd 29%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.43) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Riverside 2.33 (+0.08) 4th (1.72) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link FLYTE SC- Inland Empire to Elite FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 2–2 1–2 7–0 0–4 FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 3rd FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 7th Inland Surf 14th Strikers FC North 16th Elite FC 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 12th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM
Elite FC
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
Louie Pompei Memorial Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.60 2.12 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
04:45 PM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Home
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–2 1.19 1.96 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away
Palomar College Minkoff Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–1 1.48 1.90 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Laguna United
13th · 0-1-2 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 1.92 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.77 1.90 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.71 1.88 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.80 1.97 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.20 1.99 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.37 2.02 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
10th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.38 1.97 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–2 1.76 1.96 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4400 175+12 123.00 WWWW +0.03 -0.19 99% 1.3
2 ALBION SC Riverside 3210 53+2 72.33 DWW -0.30 +0.02 35% 5.9
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4301 115+6 92.25 WWWL +0.08 -0.12 71% 3.7
4 CITY SC San Marcos 3201 85+3 62.00 LWW -0.25 -0.00 32% 6.1
5 Elite FC 3201 75+2 62.00 WLW -0.48 +0.07 19% 7.4
6 City SC - San Diego 3201 55+0 62.00 WLW +0.76 -0.23 30% 6.3
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4211 147+7 71.75 DWLW -0.45 +0.08 54% 4.7
8 BOCA OC 3111 89-1 41.33 WDL +0.54 -0.15 14% 8.2
9 Reds FC 3111 45-1 41.33 DWL +0.18 -0.05 5% 9.7
10 California Football Academy 3102 74+3 31.00 LWL +0.36 -0.15 33% 6.1
11 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3102 55+0 31.00 WLL +0.04 -0.03 7% 9.1
12 City SC Southwest 3102 510-5 31.00 LLW -0.17 +0.04 0% 12.3
13 Laguna United 3012 59-4 10.33 LDL +0.10 +0.00 0% 13.0
14 Inland Surf 3012 39-6 10.33 DLL +0.52 -0.09 0% 13.5
15 ALBION SC San Diego 2002 15-4 00.00 LL +0.32 -0.03 0% 12.9
16 Strikers FC North 3003 014-14 00.00 LLL +0.06 +0.12 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.