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FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U15 · 16 teams · FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (all teams)

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7th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
-4 goal diff · 6–10
LWLWlast 4
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.4
+0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:15 AM

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FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
7th · 1.50 PPG
at

Aliso Niguel High School, Stadium Field ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 1.0 for, 1.6 against · 0.95 expected points)

Season so farFLYTE SC Blue- Inland EmpireCalifornia Football Academy
Position7th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-21-1-1
Points per game1.501.33
Goals for / game1.50.7
Goals against / game2.50.7
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W L W LW D L
Biggest win2–0 at Strikers FC North1–0 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana
Worst loss0–6 at City SC - San Diego0–1 at City SC - San Diego
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.48+0.07
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.25+0.35

Common opponents: Inland Surf — we 0–2; they 1–1. City SC - San Diego — we 0–6; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    California Football Academy average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.3); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Hard to break down
    California Football Academy concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Inland Surf, 0–6 at City SC - San Diego.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 23%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:15 AM at Aliso Niguel High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Reds FC sit 6th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Reds FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the California Football Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire – California Football Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG
9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 6
Win
1.80 PPG
6th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 2 7th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.20 PPG
9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we fall to at least 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
9.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 11%
  13. 13th 8%
  14. 14th 5%
  15. 15th 3%
  16. 16th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC - San Diego 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.43) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 BOCA OC 3.00 (+1.50) 2nd (2.27) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 Inland Surf 2.33 (+0.83) 3rd (1.95) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2.00 (+0.50) 4th (1.59) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
5 CITY SC San Marcos 2.00 (+0.50) 5th (1.56) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
6 Reds FC 1.67 (+0.17) 6th (1.50) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire to California Football Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 favour them
-2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–1 0–6 1–0 4–2 1–5 FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 7th Inland Surf 3rd City SC - San Diego 1st FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 15th California Football… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 13th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:15 AM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +0
Away
Aliso Niguel High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
23%
0–1 0.95 1.39 Upside
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM
Laguna United
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
San Bernardino Valley College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.43 1.40 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
21%
0–1 0.89 1.32 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:30 PM
City SC Southwest
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Home
RJRSP
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.55 1.35 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
11:15 AM
BOCA OC
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.32 1.24 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
10th · 0-2-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.24 1.24 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
16th · 0-1-3 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.79 1.29 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.34 1.29 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Reds FC
6th · 1-2-0 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.05 1.28 Upside
Sat May 8
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.17 1.27 Upside
Tue May 25
06:15 PM
Elite FC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +0
Home
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–2 1.30 1.27 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC - San Diego 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -0.49 +0.00 100% 1.5
2 BOCA OC 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -0.47 +0.02 98% 2.0
3 Inland Surf 3210 61+5 72.33 WDW -0.16 +0.00 83% 3.4
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3201 21+1 62.00 WWL -0.11 +0.04 29% 6.1
5 CITY SC San Marcos 3201 44+0 62.00 LWW +0.31 -0.07 25% 6.5
6 Reds FC 3120 64+2 51.67 DDW -0.43 +0.10 22% 6.7
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4202 610-4 61.50 LWLW +0.25 -0.03 5% 9.4
8 Elite FC 3111 55+0 41.33 DWL -0.18 +0.09 7% 9.0
9 California Football Academy 3111 22+0 41.33 LDW +0.35 -0.09 19% 7.1
10 ALBION SC San Diego 2020 22+0 21.00 DD -0.38 +0.08 7% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Riverside 3021 23-1 20.67 DLD +0.02 +0.02 2% 10.4
12 City SC Southwest 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.45 +0.17 1% 12.2
13 Strikers FC North 3021 13-2 20.67 DLD -0.34 +0.13 1% 12.3
14 Laguna United 3012 35-2 10.33 LLD +0.38 -0.06 2% 11.0
15 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4013 614-8 10.25 DLLL +0.31 -0.01 0% 14.2
16 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4013 210-8 10.25 DLLL +0.24 +0.05 0% 15.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.