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ALBION SC San Diego

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U15 · 16 teams · ALBION SC San Diego (all teams)

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10th
0-2-0 record · 2 played
1.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 2–2
DDlast 2
7% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:15 AM

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ALBION SC San Diego
10th · 1.00 PPG
at
BOCA OC
2nd · 3.00 PPG

El Rancho Charter School (Track Field), El Rancho Charter School Upper 11v11 Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.8 for, 2.1 against · 0.60 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC San DiegoBOCA OC
Position10th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-2-03-0-0
Points per game1.003.00
Goals for / game1.03.3
Goals against / game1.00.7
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D DW W W
Biggest win—4–0 at ALBION SC Santa Ana
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.02+1.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38-0.47

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    BOCA OC score 3.3/game — well above the league's 1.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    BOCA OC concede only 0.7/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    BOCA OC have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:15 AM at El Rancho Charter School (Track Field).

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    California Football Academy sit 9th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above California Football Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the BOCA OC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC San Diego – BOCA OC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG
11th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 2 16th▼ down 6
Win
1.67 PPG
7th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 3 10th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
10th— holds 11th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 3
Loss
0.67 PPG
10th— holds 12th▼ down 2 16th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
7% top 4
93% below the top 4
9.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 11%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 12%
  11. 11th 10%
  12. 12th 8%
  13. 13th 7%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC - San Diego 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.43) 43 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 BOCA OC 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.27) 43 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 Inland Surf 2.33 (+1.33) 3rd (1.95) 33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2.00 (+1.00) 4th (1.59) 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 CITY SC San Marcos 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.56) 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 Reds FC 1.67 (+0.67) 6th (1.50) 24 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 1.50 (+0.50) 10th (1.27) A point next game
8 Elite FC 1.33 (+0.33) 9th (1.27) A point next game
9 California Football Academy 1.33 (+0.33) 7th (1.46) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 5th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:15 AM
BOCA OC
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–2 0.60 0.87 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Inland Surf
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Home
Hickman Fields
●●●●● Very tough
22%
0–1 0.96 0.89 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
Strikers FC North
13th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Home
Madison High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–0 1.68 1.05 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
16th · 0-1-3 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
1–0 2.12 1.23 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.27 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
City SC Southwest
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–0 1.71 1.32 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.19 1.31 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
0–2 0.60 1.24 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–0 1.53 1.26 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
0–0 1.12 1.25 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Elite FC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.30 1.25 Upside
Sun May 2
10:15 AM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +0
Away
Vista Hermosa Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
28%
0–0 1.18 1.25 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Laguna United
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
Hickman Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.63 1.27 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC - San Diego 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -0.49 +0.00 100% 1.5
2 BOCA OC 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -0.47 +0.02 97% 2.0
3 Inland Surf 3210 61+5 72.33 WDW -0.16 +0.00 82% 3.4
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3201 21+1 62.00 WWL -0.11 +0.04 29% 6.0
5 CITY SC San Marcos 3201 44+0 62.00 LWW +0.31 -0.07 26% 6.4
6 Reds FC 3120 64+2 51.67 DDW -0.43 +0.10 23% 6.7
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4202 610-4 61.50 LWLW +0.25 -0.03 5% 9.2
8 Elite FC 3111 55+0 41.33 DWL -0.18 +0.09 7% 9.0
9 California Football Academy 3111 22+0 41.33 LDW +0.35 -0.09 20% 7.2
10 ALBION SC San Diego 2020 22+0 21.00 DD -0.38 +0.08 7% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Riverside 3021 23-1 20.67 DLD +0.02 +0.02 2% 10.4
12 City SC Southwest 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.45 +0.17 1% 12.3
13 Strikers FC North 3021 13-2 20.67 DLD -0.34 +0.13 0% 12.3
14 Laguna United 3012 35-2 10.33 LLD +0.38 -0.06 1% 11.1
15 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4013 614-8 10.25 DLLL +0.31 -0.01 0% 14.2
16 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4013 210-8 10.25 DLLL +0.24 +0.05 0% 15.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.