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ALBION SC Santa Ana

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U15 · 16 teams · ALBION SC Santa Ana (all teams)

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16th
0-1-3 record · 4 played
0.25 points per game
-8 goal diff · 2–10
DLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.1
+0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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ALBION SC Santa Ana
16th · 0.25 PPG
at
ALBION SC Riverside
11th · 0.67 PPG

Galway Downs, #19 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.7 for, 1.6 against · 0.74 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa AnaALBION SC Riverside
Position16th11th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-30-2-1
Points per game0.250.67
Goals for / game0.50.7
Goals against / game2.51.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L L L DD L D
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–4 vs BOCA OC0–1 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.08-0.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.24+0.02

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    ALBION SC Riverside average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.3); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at California Football Academy, 0–4 vs BOCA OC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 17%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Galway Downs.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire sit 15th on 0.25 PPG; we are on 0.25.

    A point moves us above FLYTE SC- Inland Empire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Riverside game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Ana – ALBION SC Riverside) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.20 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds
Win
0.80 PPG
11th▲ up 5 10th▲ up 6 15th▲ up 1
Draw
0.40 PPG
14th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 2 16th— holds
Loss
0.20 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 5%
  14. 14th 10%
  15. 15th 24%
  16. 16th 56%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC - San Diego 3.00 (+2.75) 1st (2.43) 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 BOCA OC 3.00 (+2.75) 2nd (2.27) 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Inland Surf 2.33 (+2.08) 3rd (1.95) 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2.00 (+1.75) 4th (1.59) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
5 CITY SC San Marcos 2.00 (+1.75) 5th (1.56) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6 Reds FC 1.67 (+1.42) 6th (1.50) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 1.50 (+1.25) 10th (1.27) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 Elite FC 1.33 (+1.08) 9th (1.27) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 California Football Academy 1.33 (+1.08) 7th (1.46) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 ALBION SC San Diego 1.00 (+0.75) 8th (1.27) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
11 ALBION SC Riverside 0.67 (+0.42) 11th (1.14) A point next game
12 City SC Southwest 0.67 (+0.42) 14th (0.94) A point next game
13 Strikers FC North 0.67 (+0.42) 13th (0.95) A point next game
14 Laguna United 0.33 (+0.08) 12th (1.06) Already ahead
15 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 0.25 (+0.00) 15th (0.72) Already ahead

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Ana to ALBION SC Riverside through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 3–2 1–1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 16th BOCA OC 2nd Laguna United 14th ALBION SC Riverside 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 6th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Away
Galway Downs
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–1 0.74 0.35 Upside
Sat Oct 31
04:45 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -8
Away
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.97 0.45 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
Reds FC
6th · 1-2-0 · GD +2
Away
Orange County Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.47 0.45 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
10th · 0-2-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
0–1 0.66 0.48 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–1 0.61 0.49 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
0–2 0.57 0.50 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.18 0.47 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 0.99 0.52 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
13th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
0–1 1.11 0.56 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Laguna United
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
0–1 0.74 0.58 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.43 0.57 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC - San Diego 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -0.49 +0.00 100% 1.5
2 BOCA OC 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -0.47 +0.02 97% 2.0
3 Inland Surf 3210 61+5 72.33 WDW -0.16 +0.00 82% 3.4
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3201 21+1 62.00 WWL -0.11 +0.04 29% 6.0
5 CITY SC San Marcos 3201 44+0 62.00 LWW +0.31 -0.07 26% 6.4
6 Reds FC 3120 64+2 51.67 DDW -0.43 +0.10 23% 6.7
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4202 610-4 61.50 LWLW +0.25 -0.03 5% 9.2
8 Elite FC 3111 55+0 41.33 DWL -0.18 +0.09 7% 9.0
9 California Football Academy 3111 22+0 41.33 LDW +0.35 -0.09 20% 7.2
10 ALBION SC San Diego 2020 22+0 21.00 DD -0.38 +0.08 7% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Riverside 3021 23-1 20.67 DLD +0.02 +0.02 2% 10.4
12 City SC Southwest 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.45 +0.17 1% 12.3
13 Strikers FC North 3021 13-2 20.67 DLD -0.34 +0.13 0% 12.3
14 Laguna United 3012 35-2 10.33 LLD +0.38 -0.06 1% 11.1
15 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4013 614-8 10.25 DLLL +0.31 -0.01 0% 14.2
16 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4013 210-8 10.25 DLLL +0.24 +0.05 0% 15.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.