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ALBION SC Riverside

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U15 · 16 teams · ALBION SC Riverside (all teams)

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11th
0-2-1 record · 3 played
0.67 points per game
-1 goal diff · 2–3
DLDlast 3
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.3
+0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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ALBION SC Riverside
11th · 0.67 PPG
vs
ALBION SC Santa Ana
16th · 0.25 PPG

Galway Downs, #19 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.6 for, 0.7 against · 2.01 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC RiversideALBION SC Santa Ana
Position11th16th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-10-1-3
Points per game0.670.25
Goals for / game0.70.5
Goals against / game1.02.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)D L DL L L D
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–1 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC0–4 vs BOCA OC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.14-1.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.02+0.24

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    ALBION SC Santa Ana average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.3); blanked in 2 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    ALBION SC Santa Ana concede 2.5/game; worst result 0–4 vs BOCA OC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 59% / draw 25% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    ALBION SC Santa Ana have lost 3 straight (form: DLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC San Diego sit 10th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC San Diego on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Santa Ana game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Riverside – ALBION SC Santa Ana) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.25 PPG
10th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Win
1.25 PPG
10th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Draw
0.75 PPG
11th— holds 10th▲ up 1 15th▼ down 4
Loss
0.50 PPG
14th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 2 16th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
10.3 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 12%
  14. 14th 7%
  15. 15th 5%
  16. 16th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC - San Diego 3.00 (+2.33) 1st (2.43) 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 BOCA OC 3.00 (+2.33) 2nd (2.27) 43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 Inland Surf 2.33 (+1.66) 3rd (1.95) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2.00 (+1.33) 4th (1.59) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 CITY SC San Marcos 2.00 (+1.33) 5th (1.56) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 Reds FC 1.67 (+1.00) 6th (1.50) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 1.50 (+0.83) 10th (1.27) 21 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
8 Elite FC 1.33 (+0.66) 9th (1.27) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 California Football Academy 1.33 (+0.66) 7th (1.46) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 ALBION SC San Diego 1.00 (+0.33) 8th (1.27) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Riverside to ALBION SC Santa Ana through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–3 4–0 ALBION SC Riverside 11th Laguna United 14th BOCA OC 2nd ALBION SC Santa Ana 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 9th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
16th · 0-1-3 · GD -8
Home
Galway Downs
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–0 2.01 1.00 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:45 PM
City SC - San Diego
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Home
UC Riverside · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.54 0.91 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:00 PM
City SC Southwest
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Away
Patricia Birdsall Sport Park
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–0 1.41 0.99 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.89 0.98 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.67 1.07 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
0–0 1.10 1.07 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Elite FC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.43 1.11 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–1 0.72 1.07 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
10th · 0-2-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
0–1 1.16 1.08 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.40 1.10 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.32 1.12 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
13th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Away
OC Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
35%
0–0 1.40 1.14 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC - San Diego 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -0.49 +0.00 100% 1.5
2 BOCA OC 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -0.47 +0.02 98% 2.0
3 Inland Surf 3210 61+5 72.33 WDW -0.16 +0.00 83% 3.4
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3201 21+1 62.00 WWL -0.11 +0.04 30% 6.1
5 CITY SC San Marcos 3201 44+0 62.00 LWW +0.31 -0.07 27% 6.4
6 Reds FC 3120 64+2 51.67 DDW -0.43 +0.10 22% 6.7
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4202 610-4 61.50 LWLW +0.25 -0.03 4% 9.4
8 Elite FC 3111 55+0 41.33 DWL -0.18 +0.09 7% 8.9
9 California Football Academy 3111 22+0 41.33 LDW +0.35 -0.09 18% 7.1
10 ALBION SC San Diego 2020 22+0 21.00 DD -0.38 +0.08 7% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Riverside 3021 23-1 20.67 DLD +0.02 +0.02 3% 10.3
12 City SC Southwest 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.45 +0.17 1% 12.2
13 Strikers FC North 3021 13-2 20.67 DLD -0.34 +0.13 0% 12.3
14 Laguna United 3012 35-2 10.33 LLD +0.38 -0.06 2% 11.2
15 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4013 614-8 10.25 DLLL +0.31 -0.01 0% 14.2
16 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4013 210-8 10.25 DLLL +0.24 +0.05 0% 15.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.