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BOCA OC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U15 · 16 teams · BOCA OC (all teams)

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2nd
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+8 goal diff · 10–2
WWWlast 3
97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0
-0.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:15 AM

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BOCA OC
2nd · 3.00 PPG
vs
ALBION SC San Diego
10th · 1.00 PPG

El Rancho Charter School (Track Field), El Rancho Charter School Upper 11v11 Field ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 0.8 against · 2.21 expected points)

Season so farBOCA OCALBION SC San Diego
Position2nd10th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-00-2-0
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game3.31.0
Goals against / game0.71.0
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W WD D
Biggest win4–0 at ALBION SC Santa Ana—
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.23-0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.47-0.38

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 67% / draw 19% / loss 14%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    City SC - San Diego sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above City SC - San Diego on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC San Diego game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BOCA OC – ALBION SC San Diego) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.25 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

30% finish 1st
97% top 4
3% below the top 4
2.0 average finish
  1. 1st 30%
  2. 2nd 47%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 City SC - San Diego 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.43) Win next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 8th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:15 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
10th · 0-2-0 · GD +0
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–0 2.21 2.80 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
03:00 PM
City SC Southwest
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Away
Patricia Birdsall Sport Park
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–0 2.26 2.69 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
12:15 PM
Elite FC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD +0
Away
Don Lugo High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 2.60 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
11:15 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -4
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.57 2.60 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
13th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
1–0 2.20 2.55 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:15 PM
City SC - San Diego
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +11
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.23 2.40 Upside
Sat Mar 20
11:15 AM
California Football Academy
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +0
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
1–0 2.07 2.37 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
11th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
1–0 2.06 2.34 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
4th · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–0 1.77 2.29 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
11:15 AM
Reds FC
6th · 1-2-0 · GD +2
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.17 2.28 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
01:45 PM
Inland Surf
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +5
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.65 2.24 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -8
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.76 2.27 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 City SC - San Diego 3300 121+11 93.00 WWW -0.49 +0.00 99% 1.5
2 BOCA OC 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -0.47 +0.02 97% 2.0
3 Inland Surf 3210 61+5 72.33 WDW -0.16 +0.00 83% 3.4
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3201 21+1 62.00 WWL -0.11 +0.04 30% 6.1
5 CITY SC San Marcos 3201 44+0 62.00 LWW +0.31 -0.07 25% 6.5
6 Reds FC 3120 64+2 51.67 DDW -0.43 +0.10 23% 6.8
7 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4202 610-4 61.50 LWLW +0.25 -0.03 6% 9.2
8 Elite FC 3111 55+0 41.33 DWL -0.18 +0.09 6% 9.1
9 California Football Academy 3111 22+0 41.33 LDW +0.35 -0.09 19% 7.0
10 ALBION SC San Diego 2020 22+0 21.00 DD -0.38 +0.08 6% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Riverside 3021 23-1 20.67 DLD +0.02 +0.02 3% 10.3
12 City SC Southwest 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.45 +0.17 0% 12.3
13 Strikers FC North 3021 13-2 20.67 DLD -0.34 +0.13 1% 12.3
14 Laguna United 3012 35-2 10.33 LLD +0.38 -0.06 2% 11.1
15 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4013 614-8 10.25 DLLL +0.31 -0.01 0% 14.2
16 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4013 210-8 10.25 DLLL +0.24 +0.05 0% 15.1

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.