TableChase Clubs

Western WA Surf Academy White

Elite Academy League · PACNW U19 · 17 teams · Western WA Surf Academy White (all teams)

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17th
0-0-5 record · 5 played
0.00 points per game
-25 goal diff · 3–28
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.8
-0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Western WA Surf Academy White
17th · 0.00 PPG
at
Harbor SC
4th · 2.25 PPG

Gig Harbor Sports Complex (Tom Taylor YMCA), GHSC2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–6 (expected goals 1.0 for, 6.4 against · 0.05 expected points)

Season so farWestern WA Surf Academy WhiteHarbor SC
Position17th4th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-53-0-1
Points per game0.002.25
Goals for / game0.64.0
Goals against / game5.61.8
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W W L
Biggest win—6–0 at Western WA Surf Academy Blue
Worst loss0–9 at BVBIA Washington2–5 vs BVBIA Washington
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.07+1.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.04+0.20

Common opponents: BVBIA Washington — we 0–9; they 2–5. ALBION SC Washington — we 1–3; they 3–0. Western WA Surf Academy Blue — we 1–8; they 6–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Harbor SC score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs Seattle Celtic, 0–9 at BVBIA Washington.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Harbor SC have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Gig Harbor Sports Complex (Tom Taylor YMCA).

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Sting Soccer Club - ID sit 16th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Sting Soccer Club - ID on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Harbor SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Western WA Surf Academy White – Harbor SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Win
0.50 PPG
14th▲ up 3 14th▲ up 3 14th▲ up 3
Draw
0.17 PPG
15th▲ up 2 15th▲ up 2 15th▲ up 2
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–6 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th 15%
  17. 17th 83%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sparta Tacoma 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.53) 48 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.46) 48 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Highline Premier FC 2.25 (+2.25) 5th (1.91) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 Harbor SC 2.25 (+2.25) 4th (2.06) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Warriors Sports Academy 2.00 (+2.00) 9th (1.45) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 BVBIA Washington 1.80 (+1.80) 3rd (2.10) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Seattle Celtic 1.80 (+1.80) 7th (1.66) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 1.67 (+1.67) 11th (1.40) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 Everett FC 1.50 (+1.50) 8th (1.63) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
10 Emerald City FC 1.33 (+1.33) 12th (1.25) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 ALBION SC Washington 1.00 (+1.00) 15th (0.80) 16 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
12 Mt. Rainier 0.60 (+0.60) 14th (0.82) 10 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
13 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 0.60 (+0.60) 13th (0.83) 10 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
14 Atletico Rojo 0.17 (+0.17) 16th (0.46) A point next game
15 ALBION SC Hawaii 0.00 (+0.00) 6th (1.78) Already ahead
16 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.42) Already ahead

How the results connect

5 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Western WA Surf Academy White to Harbor SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
5 favour them
-9.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 0–3 0–9 5–2 1–8 0–6 2–0 2–5 0–7 Western WA Surf Aca… 17th ALBION SC Washington 11th BVBIA Washington 6th Western WA Surf Aca… 8th Everett FC 9th Harbor SC 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.33 · 1st hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
Harbor SC
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9
Away
Gig Harbor Sports Complex (Tom Taylor YMCA)
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–6 0.05 0.01 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
Sting Soccer Club - ID
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
HUB Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.19 0.04 Upside
Sat Nov 14
07:00 PM
Everett FC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +4
Home
Central Park
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.21 0.06 Upside
Sat Nov 21
06:00 PM
Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
Silas High School
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.06 0.06 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:00 PM
Sparta Tacoma
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18
Home
Central Park
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–7 0.04 0.06 Upside
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM
Mt. Rainier
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.74 0.12 Upside
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM
Atletico Rojo
14th · 0-1-5 · GD -20
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.90 0.18 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
Warriors Sports Academy
5th · 2-0-1 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.23 0.19 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Highline Premier FC
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.13 0.18 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM
Emerald City FC
10th · 2-2-2 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.54 0.21 Upside
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Hawaii
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.19 0.20 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sparta Tacoma 5500 268+18 153.00 WWWWW +0.17 -0.23 97% 1.7
2 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 4400 183+15 123.00 WWWW -0.33 -0.06 96% 2.0
3 Highline Premier FC 4301 155+10 92.25 WWLW -0.89 +0.26 36% 5.4
4 Harbor SC 4301 167+9 92.25 LWWW +0.20 -0.17 58% 4.4
5 Warriors Sports Academy 3201 79-2 62.00 LWW -0.06 +0.05 2% 9.3
6 BVBIA Washington 5302 219+12 91.80 WLWWL +0.59 -0.39 66% 4.1
7 Seattle Celtic 5302 1410+4 91.80 LWLWW -0.38 +0.14 10% 7.5
8 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 6312 1817+1 101.67 WDWWL -0.52 +0.31 1% 9.6
9 Everett FC 4202 128+4 61.50 LWLW -0.21 +0.02 7% 7.7
10 Emerald City FC 6222 811-3 81.33 WDWDL -0.02 +0.05 0% 11.0
11 ALBION SC Washington 3102 311-8 31.00 LLW -0.49 +0.21 0% 14.0
12 Mt. Rainier 5104 511-6 30.60 LLWLL -0.23 +0.21 0% 13.8
13 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 5104 716-9 30.60 WLLLL +0.41 -0.01 0% 13.7
14 Atletico Rojo 6015 525-20 10.17 DLLLL +0.61 -0.14 0% 15.8
15 ALBION SC Hawaii 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.45 ——
16 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.02 ——
17 Western WA Surf Academy White 5005 328-25 00.00 LLLLL -0.04 +0.33 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.