ALBION SC Hawaii
Elite Academy League · PACNW U19 · 17 teams · ALBION SC Hawaii (all teams)
Next game — Fri Feb 19, 12:00 AM
TBD, TBD ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.7 against · 2.10 expected points)
| Season so far | ALBION SC Hawaii | Valencia CF Academy - Seattle |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | — | L L L L W |
| Biggest win | — | 4–1 vs Western WA Surf Academy White |
| Worst loss | — | 2–7 at Sparta Tacoma |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | -1.03 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.41 |
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 65% / draw 16% / loss 19%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Atletico Rojo sit 14th on 0.17 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Atletico Rojo on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Friday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Valencia CF Academy - Seattle game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Hawaii – Valencia CF Academy - Seattle) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Feb 15 – Sun Feb 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 12 | 3rd▲ up 12 | 3rd▲ up 12 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 12 | 3rd▲ up 12 | 4th▲ up 11 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
11th▲ up 4 | 12th▲ up 3 | 13th▲ up 2 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
16th▼ down 1 | 16th▼ down 1 | 16th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 9%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 5%
- 12th 4%
- 13th 2%
- 14th 1%
- 15th 1%
- 16th <1%
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Tacoma | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.53) | Win next game |
| 2 | Washington East Surf Columbia Basin | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.46) | Win next game |
| 3 | Highline Premier FC | 2.25 (+2.25) | 5th (1.91) | A point next game |
| 4 | Harbor SC | 2.25 (+2.25) | 4th (2.06) | A point next game |
| 5 | Warriors Sports Academy | 2.00 (+2.00) | 9th (1.45) | A point next game |
| 6 | BVBIA Washington | 1.80 (+1.80) | 3rd (2.10) | A point next game |
| 7 | Seattle Celtic | 1.80 (+1.80) | 7th (1.66) | A point next game |
| 8 | Western WA Surf Academy Blue | 1.67 (+1.67) | 11th (1.40) | A point next game |
| 9 | Everett FC | 1.50 (+1.50) | 8th (1.63) | A point next game |
| 10 | Emerald City FC | 1.33 (+1.33) | 12th (1.25) | A point next game |
| 11 | ALBION SC Washington | 1.00 (+1.00) | 15th (0.80) | A point next game |
| 12 | Mt. Rainier | 0.60 (+0.60) | 14th (0.82) | Already ahead |
| 13 | Valencia CF Academy - Seattle | 0.60 (+0.60) | 13th (0.83) | Already ahead |
| 14 | Atletico Rojo | 0.17 (+0.17) | 16th (0.46) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
13 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.45 · 17th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Feb 19 12:00 AM |
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -9 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–1 | 2.10 | 2.10 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 12:00 AM |
Western WA Surf Academy Blue 8th · 3-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
3–2 | 1.60 | 1.85 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 12:00 AM |
Western WA Surf Academy White 17th · 0-0-5 · GD -25 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.74 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Tue May 25 08:00 AM |
BVBIA Washington 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.84 | 1.82 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 08:00 AM |
Atletico Rojo 14th · 0-1-5 · GD -20 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.51 | 1.96 | Bank it |
| Tue May 25 08:00 AM |
Seattle Celtic 7th · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.32 | 1.85 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 08:00 AM |
Sparta Tacoma 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
2–3 | 0.63 | 1.68 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 08:00 AM |
Mt. Rainier 12th · 1-0-4 · GD -6 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Washington 11th · 1-0-2 · GD -8 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.22 | 1.78 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sparta Tacoma | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.17 | -0.23 | 97% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 7 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Harbor SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Washington East Surf Columbia Basin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.33 | -0.06 | 96% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Everett FC · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 14 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Highline Premier FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.89 | +0.26 | 36% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Seattle Celtic · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Washington See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Harbor SC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +0.20 | -0.17 | 58% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Nov 8 vs Emerald City FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Warriors Sports Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.06 | +0.05 | 2% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Oct 25 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 7 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | BVBIA Washington | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | +0.59 | -0.39 | 66% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mt. Rainier · Sun Oct 25 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Rojo See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Seattle Celtic | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | -0.38 | +0.14 | 10% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Highline Premier FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Western WA Surf Academy Blue | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | WDWWL | -0.52 | +0.31 | 1% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Highline Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Everett FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.21 | +0.02 | 7% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Oct 25 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Nov 7 vs Sparta Tacoma See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Emerald City FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | 1.33 | WDWDL | -0.02 | +0.05 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sun Nov 8 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 22 at Sting Soccer Club - ID See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | ALBION SC Washington | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.49 | +0.21 | 0% | 14.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sparta Tacoma · Sun Oct 25 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Nov 8 at Mt. Rainier See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Mt. Rainier | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | -0.23 | +0.21 | 0% | 13.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BVBIA Washington · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sun Nov 15 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Valencia CF Academy - Seattle | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.41 | -0.01 | 0% | 13.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Emerald City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 21 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Atletico Rojo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 25 | -20 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.61 | -0.14 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Dec 12 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | ALBION SC Hawaii | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.45 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Fri Feb 19 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Feb 20 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Feb 21 vs Western WA Surf Academy White See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Sting Soccer Club - ID | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.02 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 14 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 vs Mt. Rainier See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Western WA Surf Academy White | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 28 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.04 | +0.33 | 0% | 16.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 at Sting Soccer Club - ID · Sat Nov 14 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.