Mt. Rainier
Elite Academy League · PACNW U19 · 17 teams · Mt. Rainier (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
International School, Athletic Field ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.6 against · 0.34 expected points)
| Season so far | Mt. Rainier | BVBIA Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-4 | 3-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 4.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L L | L W W L W |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle | 9–0 vs Western WA Surf Academy White |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at Emerald City FC | 2–3 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.82 | +1.56 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.23 | +0.59 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
BVBIA Washington score 4.2/game — well above the league's 2.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at Emerald City FC, 0–2 vs Warriors Sports Academy, 0–2 vs Seattle Celtic.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 8%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at International School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
ALBION SC Washington sit 11th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.60.A win moves us above ALBION SC Washington on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the BVBIA Washington game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mt. Rainier – BVBIA Washington) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.50 PPG |
13th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
11th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 1 | 13th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
12th— holds | 11th▲ up 1 | 13th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
13th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 3%
- 12th 9%
- 13th 24%
- 14th 30%
- 15th 25%
- 16th 7%
- 17th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Tacoma | 3.00 (+2.40) | 1st (2.53) | 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Washington East Surf Columbia Basin | 3.00 (+2.40) | 2nd (2.46) | 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Highline Premier FC | 2.25 (+1.65) | 5th (1.91) | 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 4 | Harbor SC | 2.25 (+1.65) | 4th (2.06) | 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 5 | Warriors Sports Academy | 2.00 (+1.40) | 9th (1.45) | 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | BVBIA Washington | 1.80 (+1.20) | 3rd (2.10) | 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 7 | Seattle Celtic | 1.80 (+1.20) | 7th (1.66) | 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 8 | Western WA Surf Academy Blue | 1.67 (+1.07) | 11th (1.40) | 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 9 | Everett FC | 1.50 (+0.90) | 8th (1.63) | 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 10 | Emerald City FC | 1.33 (+0.73) | 12th (1.25) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 11 | ALBION SC Washington | 1.00 (+0.40) | 15th (0.80) | Win next game |
How the results connect
10 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Mt. Rainier to BVBIA Washington through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.21 · 5th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
BVBIA Washington 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12 |
Away International School |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.34 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Washington 11th · 1-0-2 · GD -8 |
Home Game Farm Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 0.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
Everett FC 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home Game Farm Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 0.73 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 03:00 PM |
Sting Soccer Club - ID 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Real Life Ministries |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 12:00 AM |
Harbor SC 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.40 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 10 12:00 AM |
Western WA Surf Academy White 17th · 0-0-5 · GD -25 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 0.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 23 12:00 AM |
Highline Premier FC 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.45 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 12:00 AM |
Sparta Tacoma 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.37 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM |
Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +15 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.39 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 12:00 AM |
Atletico Rojo 14th · 0-1-5 · GD -20 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 0.82 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 08:00 AM |
ALBION SC Hawaii 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 0.82 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sparta Tacoma | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.17 | -0.23 | 98% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 7 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Harbor SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Washington East Surf Columbia Basin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.33 | -0.06 | 95% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Everett FC · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 14 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Highline Premier FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.89 | +0.26 | 36% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Seattle Celtic · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Washington See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Harbor SC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +0.20 | -0.17 | 59% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Nov 8 vs Emerald City FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Warriors Sports Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.06 | +0.05 | 2% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Oct 25 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 7 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | BVBIA Washington | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | +0.59 | -0.39 | 66% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mt. Rainier · Sun Oct 25 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Rojo See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Seattle Celtic | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | -0.38 | +0.14 | 10% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Highline Premier FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Western WA Surf Academy Blue | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | WDWWL | -0.52 | +0.31 | 1% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Highline Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Everett FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.21 | +0.02 | 8% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Oct 25 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Nov 7 vs Sparta Tacoma See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Emerald City FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | 1.33 | WDWDL | -0.02 | +0.05 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sun Nov 8 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 22 at Sting Soccer Club - ID See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | ALBION SC Washington | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.49 | +0.21 | 0% | 13.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sparta Tacoma · Sun Oct 25 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Nov 8 at Mt. Rainier See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Mt. Rainier | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | -0.23 | +0.21 | 0% | 13.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BVBIA Washington · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sun Nov 15 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Valencia CF Academy - Seattle | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.41 | -0.01 | 0% | 13.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Emerald City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 21 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Atletico Rojo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 25 | -20 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.61 | -0.14 | 0% | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Dec 12 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | ALBION SC Hawaii | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.45 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Fri Feb 19 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Feb 20 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Feb 21 vs Western WA Surf Academy White See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Sting Soccer Club - ID | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.02 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 14 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 vs Mt. Rainier See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Western WA Surf Academy White | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 28 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.04 | +0.33 | 0% | 16.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 at Sting Soccer Club - ID · Sat Nov 14 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.