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Warriors Sports Academy

Elite Academy League · PACNW U19 · 17 teams · Warriors Sports Academy (all teams)

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5th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
-2 goal diff · 7–9
LWWlast 3
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.3
-0.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Warriors Sports Academy
5th · 2.00 PPG
at
Seattle Celtic
7th · 1.80 PPG

Valley Ridge Park, #3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.1 for, 3.2 against · 0.87 expected points)

Season so farWarriors Sports AcademySeattle Celtic
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-13-0-2
Points per game2.001.80
Goals for / game2.32.8
Goals against / game3.02.0
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W LW W L W L
Biggest win4–1 at Emerald City FC5–0 vs Atletico Rojo
Worst loss1–8 vs Highline Premier FC1–5 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.29+0.46
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.06-0.38

Common opponents: Mt. Rainier — we 2–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Valley Ridge Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Harbor SC sit 4th on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A win moves us above Harbor SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Seattle Celtic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Warriors Sports Academy – Seattle Celtic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG
9th▼ down 4 8th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 6
Win
2.25 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG
6th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 4
Loss
1.50 PPG
9th▼ down 4 8th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
9.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 18%
  11. 11th 15%
  12. 12th 10%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sparta Tacoma 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.53) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.46) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3 Highline Premier FC 2.25 (+0.25) 5th (1.91) Win next game
4 Harbor SC 2.25 (+0.25) 4th (2.06) Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Warriors Sports Academy to Seattle Celtic through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–2 4–1 0–4 5–2 2–2 0–5 2–0 1–8 5–2 Warriors Sports Aca… 5th Mt. Rainier 12th Emerald City FC 10th Highline Premier FC 3rd Sparta Tacoma 1st Atletico Rojo 14th Seattle Celtic 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.05 · 8th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Seattle Celtic
7th · 3-0-2 · GD +4
Away
Valley Ridge Park
●●●●● Very tough
24%
2–3 0.87 1.72 Upside
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM
BVBIA Washington
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away
International School
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–4 0.46 1.47 Upside
Sat Nov 7
07:00 PM
Western WA Surf Academy Blue
8th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Home
Robinswood Soccer Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
3–2 1.45 1.46 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM
Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away
Pasco Sporting Complex - Soccer Fields
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.32 1.30 Upside
Sat Nov 21
03:00 PM
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -9
Home
Issaquah Central Park
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–1 2.00 1.39 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
05:00 PM
Atletico Rojo
14th · 0-1-5 · GD -20
Home
Marymoor Park
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 1.51 Bank it
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Washington
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.13 1.57 Swing game
Sat Jan 23
05:05 PM
Everett FC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +4
Away
Lincoln Field
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–3 0.83 1.50 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM
Harbor SC
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–4 0.54 1.42 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
Western WA Surf Academy White
17th · 0-0-5 · GD -25
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.70 1.52 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Sting Soccer Club - ID
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.44 1.51 Swing game
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM
Sparta Tacoma
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
2–4 0.51 1.45 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sparta Tacoma 5500 268+18 153.00 WWWWW +0.17 -0.23 97% 1.8
2 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 4400 183+15 123.00 WWWW -0.33 -0.06 96% 2.0
3 Highline Premier FC 4301 155+10 92.25 WWLW -0.89 +0.26 35% 5.4
4 Harbor SC 4301 167+9 92.25 LWWW +0.20 -0.17 60% 4.3
5 Warriors Sports Academy 3201 79-2 62.00 LWW -0.06 +0.05 2% 9.3
6 BVBIA Washington 5302 219+12 91.80 WLWWL +0.59 -0.39 63% 4.2
7 Seattle Celtic 5302 1410+4 91.80 LWLWW -0.38 +0.14 9% 7.6
8 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 6312 1817+1 101.67 WDWWL -0.52 +0.31 1% 9.7
9 Everett FC 4202 128+4 61.50 LWLW -0.21 +0.02 8% 7.7
10 Emerald City FC 6222 811-3 81.33 WDWDL -0.02 +0.05 0% 11.0
11 ALBION SC Washington 3102 311-8 31.00 LLW -0.49 +0.21 0% 14.0
12 Mt. Rainier 5104 511-6 30.60 LLWLL -0.23 +0.21 0% 13.8
13 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 5104 716-9 30.60 WLLLL +0.41 -0.01 0% 13.7
14 Atletico Rojo 6015 525-20 10.17 DLLLL +0.61 -0.14 0% 15.7
15 ALBION SC Hawaii 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.45 ——
16 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.02 ——
17 Western WA Surf Academy White 5005 328-25 00.00 LLLLL -0.04 +0.33 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.