Harbor SC

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Gig Harbor Sports Complex (Tom Taylor YMCA), GHSC2 ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–1 (expected goals 6.4 for, 1.0 against · 2.93 expected points)

Common opponents: BVBIA Washington — we 2–5; they 0–9. ALBION SC Washington — we 3–0; they 1–3. Western WA Surf Academy Blue — we 6–0; they 1–8.

• They struggle to score
  Western WA Surf Academy White average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 2 of 5.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Western WA Surf Academy White concede 5.6/game; worst result 0–9 at BVBIA Washington.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 6–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Western WA Surf Academy White have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  Highline Premier FC sit 3rd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.

  A point moves us above Highline Premier FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Western WA Surf Academy White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Harbor SC – Western WA Surf Academy White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 6–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

1. 1st 3%
2. 2nd 11%
3. 3rd 20%
4. 4th 24%
5. 5th 19%
6. 6th 11%
7. 7th 8%
8. 8th 2%
9. 9th 2%
10. 10th 1%
11. 11th <1%
12. 12th
13. 13th
14. 14th
15. 15th
16. 16th
17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).