Emerald City FC
Elite Academy League · PACNW U19 · 17 teams · Emerald City FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.6 against · 1.55 expected points)
| Season so far | Emerald City FC | Valencia CF Academy - Seattle |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-2 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W D W | L L L L W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Mt. Rainier | 4–1 vs Western WA Surf Academy White |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Sparta Tacoma | 2–7 at Sparta Tacoma |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.33 | -1.03 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.02 | +0.41 |
Common opponents: Sparta Tacoma — we 0–4; they 2–7. Mt. Rainier — we 2–0; they 1–2. Highline Premier FC — we 2–0; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Sparta Tacoma.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 44% / draw 22% / loss 34%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Valley Ridge Playfield.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Everett FC sit 9th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above Everett FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Valencia CF Academy - Seattle game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Emerald City FC – Valencia CF Academy - Seattle) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.29 PPG |
10th— holds | 9th▲ up 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.57 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 3 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.29 PPG |
10th— holds | 9th▲ up 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.14 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 7%
- 9th 11%
- 10th 15%
- 11th 21%
- 12th 23%
- 13th 11%
- 14th 5%
- 15th 2%
- 16th <1%
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Tacoma | 3.00 (+1.67) | 1st (2.53) | 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Washington East Surf Columbia Basin | 3.00 (+1.67) | 2nd (2.46) | 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Highline Premier FC | 2.25 (+0.92) | 5th (1.91) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 4 | Harbor SC | 2.25 (+0.92) | 4th (2.06) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 5 | Warriors Sports Academy | 2.00 (+0.67) | 9th (1.45) | 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 6 | BVBIA Washington | 1.80 (+0.47) | 3rd (2.10) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 7 | Seattle Celtic | 1.80 (+0.47) | 7th (1.66) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 8 | Western WA Surf Academy Blue | 1.67 (+0.34) | 11th (1.40) | 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 9 | Everett FC | 1.50 (+0.17) | 8th (1.63) | A point next game |
How the results connect
10 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Emerald City FC to Valencia CF Academy - Seattle through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.05 · 7th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM |
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -9 |
Away Valley Ridge Playfield |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.55 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Harbor SC 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away Gig Harbor Sports Complex (Tom Taylor YMCA) |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 03:00 PM |
Sting Soccer Club - ID 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away HUB Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 12:00 AM |
Seattle Celtic 7th · 3-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.13 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 10 12:00 AM |
BVBIA Washington 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +12 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Washington 11th · 1-0-2 · GD -8 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM |
Everett FC 9th · 2-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 12:00 AM |
Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +15 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 12:00 AM |
Western WA Surf Academy White 17th · 0-0-5 · GD -25 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.31 | 1.25 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sparta Tacoma | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.17 | -0.23 | 97% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 7 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Harbor SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Washington East Surf Columbia Basin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.33 | -0.06 | 96% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Everett FC · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 14 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Highline Premier FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.89 | +0.26 | 33% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Seattle Celtic · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Washington See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Harbor SC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | +0.20 | -0.17 | 58% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Nov 8 vs Emerald City FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Warriors Sports Academy | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.06 | +0.05 | 2% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Oct 25 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 7 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | BVBIA Washington | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 9 | 1.80 | WLWWL | +0.59 | -0.39 | 67% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mt. Rainier · Sun Oct 25 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Rojo See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Seattle Celtic | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | -0.38 | +0.14 | 10% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Highline Premier FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Western WA Surf Academy Blue | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | WDWWL | -0.52 | +0.31 | 1% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Highline Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Everett FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | LWLW | -0.21 | +0.02 | 8% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Oct 25 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Nov 7 vs Sparta Tacoma See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Emerald City FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | 1.33 | WDWDL | -0.02 | +0.05 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sun Nov 8 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 22 at Sting Soccer Club - ID See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | ALBION SC Washington | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.49 | +0.21 | 0% | 13.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sparta Tacoma · Sun Oct 25 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Nov 8 at Mt. Rainier See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Mt. Rainier | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | -0.23 | +0.21 | 0% | 13.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at BVBIA Washington · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sun Nov 15 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Valencia CF Academy - Seattle | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.41 | -0.01 | 0% | 13.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Emerald City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 21 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Atletico Rojo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 25 | -20 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.61 | -0.14 | 0% | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Dec 12 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | ALBION SC Hawaii | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.45 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Fri Feb 19 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Feb 20 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Feb 21 vs Western WA Surf Academy White See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Sting Soccer Club - ID | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.02 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 14 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 vs Mt. Rainier See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Western WA Surf Academy White | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 28 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.04 | +0.33 | 0% | 16.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 at Sting Soccer Club - ID · Sat Nov 14 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.