BVBIA Washington

Elite Academy League · PACNW U19 · 17 teams · BVBIA Washington (all teams)

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6th

3-0-2 record · 5 played

1.80 points per game

+12 goal diff · 21–9

WLWWLlast 5

67% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1

+0.59 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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BVBIA Washington
6th · 1.80 PPG

Mt. Rainier
12th · 0.60 PPG

International School, Athletic Field ↗

82% 10%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.2 against · 2.56 expected points)

Season so far	BVBIA Washington	Mt. Rainier
Position	6th	12th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-2	1-0-4
Points per game	1.80	0.60
Goals for / game	4.2	1.0
Goals against / game	1.8	2.2
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	L W W L W	L L W L L
Biggest win	9–0 vs Western WA Surf Academy White	2–1 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle
Worst loss	2–3 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin	0–2 at Emerald City FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.56	-0.82
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.59	-0.23

Game plan

They struggle to score
Mt. Rainier average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
What a win does
Warriors Sports Academy sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.
A win moves us above Warriors Sports Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mt. Rainier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BVBIA Washington – Mt. Rainier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Draw 1.67 PPG	7th▼ down 1	6th— holds	10th▼ down 4
Loss 1.50 PPG	8th▼ down 2	6th— holds	11th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st

67% top 4

33% below the top 4

4.1 average finish

1st 2%
2nd 11%
3rd 28%
4th 26%
5th 16%
6th 8%
7th 5%
8th 2%
9th 1%
10th <1%
11th <1%
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sparta Tacoma	3.00 (+1.20)	1st (2.53)	39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin	3.00 (+1.20)	2nd (2.46)	39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3	Highline Premier FC	2.25 (+0.45)	5th (1.91)	27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
4	Harbor SC	2.25 (+0.45)	4th (2.06)	27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5	Warriors Sports Academy	2.00 (+0.20)	9th (1.45)	Win next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link BVBIA Washington to Mt. Rainier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

0 favour them

+4.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.39 · 16th hardest of 17

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM	Mt. Rainier 12th · 1-0-4 · GD -6	Home International School	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–1	2.56	1.93	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM	Warriors Sports Academy 5th · 2-0-1 · GD -2	Home International School	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	4–1	2.44	2.00	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 07:30 PM	Atletico Rojo 14th · 0-1-5 · GD -20	Away Sirius Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	4–1	2.74	2.09	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM	Sting Soccer Club - ID 16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home International School	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	3–1	2.30	2.12	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 06:30 PM	Highline Premier FC 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +10	Away Evergreen High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	41%	2–2	1.40	2.04	Upside
Sun Jan 10 12:00 AM	Emerald City FC 10th · 2-2-2 · GD -3	Away TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.10	2.05	Swing game
Sun Jan 17 12:00 AM	Western WA Surf Academy Blue 8th · 3-1-2 · GD +1	Away TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	3–2	2.05	2.05	Swing game
Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 13th · 1-0-4 · GD -9	Away TBD	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.45	2.08	Bank it
Sun Jan 31 12:00 AM	ALBION SC Washington 11th · 1-0-2 · GD -8	Away TBD	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	4–1	2.54	2.11	Bank it
Sat Feb 6 02:00 PM	Seattle Celtic 7th · 3-0-2 · GD +4	Home International School	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–1	2.06	2.11	Swing game
Tue May 25 08:00 AM	ALBION SC Hawaii 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	3–2	2.01	2.10	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sparta Tacoma

+18

3.00

WWWWW

+0.17

-0.23

98%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	BVBIA Washington (6th)	4–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	7–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Seattle Celtic (7th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Emerald City FC (10th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 7 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Harbor SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Everett FC (9th)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Harbor SC (4th)	3–2	60%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	7–1	97%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Mt. Rainier (12th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	3–2	70%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Atletico Rojo (14th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	4–2	76%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	3–2	61%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (15th)	3–2	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Washington East Surf Columbia Basin

+15

3.00

WWWW

-0.33

-0.06

96%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Atletico Rojo (14th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	BVBIA Washington (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Seattle Celtic (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Everett FC · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Nov 14 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Everett FC (9th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	4–1	81%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Mt. Rainier (12th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Emerald City FC (10th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Harbor SC (4th)	3–1	61%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	3–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Highline Premier FC

+10

2.25

WWLW

-0.89

+0.26

34%

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Emerald City FC (10th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	8–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Atletico Rojo (14th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Seattle Celtic · Sat Nov 14 at ALBION SC Washington See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	3–2	68%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Seattle Celtic (7th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	BVBIA Washington (6th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Everett FC (9th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Harbor SC (4th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Mt. Rainier (12th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	2–2	55%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Harbor SC

2.25

LWWW

+0.20

-0.17

59%

4.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Everett FC (9th)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	BVBIA Washington (6th)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Nov 8 vs Emerald City FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	6–1	97%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Seattle Celtic (7th)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Emerald City FC (10th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Mt. Rainier (12th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Atletico Rojo (14th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	4–1	74%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	1–3	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Warriors Sports Academy

-2

2.00

LWW

-0.06

+0.05

9.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Emerald City FC (10th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Mt. Rainier (12th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	1–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle Celtic · Sun Oct 25 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 7 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Seattle Celtic (7th)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BVBIA Washington (6th)	1–4	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	3–2	43%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–1	61%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Atletico Rojo (14th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Everett FC (9th)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Harbor SC (4th)	1–4	14%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	2–4	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA Washington

+12

1.80

WLWWL

+0.59

-0.39

67%

4.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Harbor SC (4th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Everett FC (9th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mt. Rainier · Sun Oct 25 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Rojo See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mt. Rainier (12th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	4–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Atletico Rojo (14th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Emerald City FC (10th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	3–2	63%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Seattle Celtic (7th)	3–1	64%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (15th)	3–2	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seattle Celtic

1.80

LWLWW

-0.38

+0.14

7.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mt. Rainier (12th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Atletico Rojo (14th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Highline Premier FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Harbor SC (4th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Emerald City FC (10th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Everett FC (9th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	2–2	55%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	BVBIA Washington (6th)	1–3	21%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	3–1	75%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (15th)	2–2	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Western WA Surf Academy Blue

1.67

WDWWL

-0.52

+0.31

9.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Harbor SC (4th)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Atletico Rojo (14th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	8–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Emerald City FC (10th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mt. Rainier (12th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Highline Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 14 at Washington East Surf Columbia Basin See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	2–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	2–3	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	2–2	55%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Seattle Celtic (7th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	BVBIA Washington (6th)	2–3	22%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Everett FC (9th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (15th)	2–3	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Everett FC

1.50

LWLW

-0.21

+0.02

7.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Atletico Rojo (14th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Harbor SC (4th)	2–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	7–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	BVBIA Washington (6th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Oct 25 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Nov 7 vs Sparta Tacoma See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Mt. Rainier (12th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Seattle Celtic (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	3–2	62%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Emerald City FC (10th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Emerald City FC

-3

1.33

WDWDL

-0.02

+0.05

10.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	1–4
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Atletico Rojo (14th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mt. Rainier (12th)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sun Nov 8 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 22 at Sting Soccer Club - ID See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Harbor SC (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Seattle Celtic (7th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	BVBIA Washington (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Everett FC (9th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	2–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Washington

-8

1.00

LLW

-0.49

+0.21

13.9

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Harbor SC (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Everett FC (9th)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sparta Tacoma · Sun Oct 25 vs Washington East Surf Columbia Basin · Sun Nov 8 at Mt. Rainier See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mt. Rainier (12th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Atletico Rojo (14th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Emerald City FC (10th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	BVBIA Washington (6th)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Seattle Celtic (7th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	1–3	16%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (15th)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mt. Rainier

-6

0.60

LLWLL

-0.23

+0.21

13.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Seattle Celtic (7th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Emerald City FC (10th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at BVBIA Washington · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Washington · Sun Nov 15 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	BVBIA Washington (6th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Everett FC (9th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Harbor SC (4th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Atletico Rojo (14th)	2–1	61%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (15th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Valencia CF Academy - Seattle

-9

0.60

WLLLL

+0.41

-0.01

13.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	2–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Mt. Rainier (12th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	0–4
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Emerald City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Everett FC · Sat Nov 21 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Emerald City FC (10th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Everett FC (9th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	1–3	23%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	2–2	28%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Seattle Celtic (7th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	BVBIA Washington (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Harbor SC (4th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	2–1	49%
·	Fri Feb 19	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (15th)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Atletico Rojo (14th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Rojo

-20

0.17

DLLLL

+0.61

-0.14

15.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Everett FC (9th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Seattle Celtic (7th)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	0–6
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Emerald City FC (10th)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	2–5

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Washington · Sat Dec 12 at Warriors Sports Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	BVBIA Washington (6th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Harbor SC (4th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Mt. Rainier (12th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	1–2	20%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (15th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Hawaii

0.00

—

-0.45

—

No games played yet.

Next: Fri Feb 19 vs Valencia CF Academy - Seattle · Sat Feb 20 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Feb 21 vs Western WA Surf Academy White See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Feb 19	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–1	65%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	3–2	48%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	4–1	89%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Atletico Rojo (14th)	3–1	80%
·	Tue May 25	vs	BVBIA Washington (6th)	2–3	23%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Mt. Rainier (12th)	2–1	61%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	2–3	17%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Seattle Celtic (7th)	2–2	38%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Soccer Club - ID

0.00

—

+0.02

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Western WA Surf Academy White · Sat Nov 14 at BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 21 vs Mt. Rainier See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Western WA Surf Academy White (17th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	BVBIA Washington (6th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Mt. Rainier (12th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Emerald City FC (10th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	3–1	65%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Atletico Rojo (14th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Harbor SC (4th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Seattle Celtic (7th)	2–2	28%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	2–3	17%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	2–2	28%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Everett FC (9th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Western WA Surf Academy White

-25

0.00

LLLLL

-0.04

+0.33

16.8

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (8th)	1–8
L	Sun Oct 4	at	ALBION SC Washington (11th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	BVBIA Washington (6th)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Seattle Celtic (7th)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Valencia CF Academy - Seattle (13th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 at Sting Soccer Club - ID · Sat Nov 14 vs Everett FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Harbor SC (4th)	1–6	1%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sting Soccer Club - ID (16th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Everett FC (9th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Washington East Surf Columbia Basin (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sparta Tacoma (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Mt. Rainier (12th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Atletico Rojo (14th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Warriors Sports Academy (5th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Highline Premier FC (3rd)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Emerald City FC (10th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	ALBION SC Hawaii (15th)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.