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Boise Thorns Pre- One

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU12 · 8 teams · Boise Timbers | Thorns (all teams)

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2nd
4-1-1 record · 6 played
2.17 points per game
+12 goal diff · 23–11
WWDWWlast 5
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5
-0.51 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Boise Thorns Pre- One
2nd · 2.17 PPG
vs
Utah Surf PRE Blue
8th · 0.11 PPG

Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–1 (expected goals 6.1 for, 1.4 against · 2.86 expected points)

Season so farBoise Thorns Pre- OneUtah Surf PRE Blue
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-10-1-8
Points per game2.170.11
Goals for / game3.81.3
Goals against / game1.84.6
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W D W WL L L D L
Biggest win9–1 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue—
Worst loss1–3 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T11–9 at Boise Thorns Pre- One
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.13-2.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.51+0.37

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 5–1 at Utah Surf PRE Blue (W); Fri Oct 23 9–1 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue (W)

Common opponents: Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 — we 1–3; they 0–2, 1–3. Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 4–3; they 4–5, 1–3. Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I — we 2–2; they 2–8. La Roca FC Pre North T1 — we 2–1; they 2–6.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Utah Surf PRE Blue concede 4.6/game; worst result 1–9 at Boise Thorns Pre- One.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 6–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Utah Surf PRE Blue have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Utah Surf PRE Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boise Thorns Pre- One – Utah Surf PRE Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.29 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.29 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
1.86 PPG		 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 6–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

11% finish 1st
98% top 4
2% below the top 4
2.5 average finish
  1. 1st 11%
  2. 2nd 46%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 3.00 (+0.83) 1st (2.42) 47 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection

How the results connect

26 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Boise Thorns Pre- One to Utah Surf PRE Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

23 favour us
3 even
0 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 9–1 1–3 2–0 3–1 4–3 5–4 3–1 2–1 6–2 2–2 8–2 1–5 0–2 0–0 0–0 Boise Thorns Pre- O… 2nd Utah Avalanche Pre-… 1st Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th La Roca FC Pre Nort… 4th Utah Avalanche NUU … 5th Utah Avalanche Pre-… 7th Utah Surf PRE Blue 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 4th 8th Aug 29 Sep 15 Sep 19 Oct 2 Oct 10 Oct 23

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 6th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Fri Mar 20
TBD
no score posted		 Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1
7th · 0-2-3 · GD -10		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 2–0 2.51 2.22 Bank it
Fri Apr 24
TBD
no score posted		 Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1
7th · 0-2-3 · GD -10		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 2–0 2.51 2.25 Bank it
Sat Sep 12
TBD
no score posted		 Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1
7th · 0-2-3 · GD -10		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–0 2.67 2.30 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM		 Utah Surf PRE Blue
8th · 0-1-8 · GD -29		 Home
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 6–1 2.86 2.35 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
08:30 AM		 La Roca FC Pre South
3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9		 Home
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 2–2 1.45 2.27 Upside
Sun Oct 25
08:30 AM		 La Roca FC Pre South
3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9		 Home
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 2–2 1.45 2.20 Upside
Sat Mar 13
11:00 AM		 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
6th · 3-0-5 · GD -4		 Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–2 2.09 2.20 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
10:30 AM		 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13		 Away far trip
Corner Canyon High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.98 2.11 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
6th · 3-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 4–1 2.37 2.13 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.98 2.06 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
5th · 3-1-3 · GD +2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–2 2.12 2.06 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD		 La Roca FC Pre North T1
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–1 1.66 2.04 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 La Roca FC Pre North T1
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–1 1.66 2.02 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
5th · 3-1-3 · GD +2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–2 2.12 2.02 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 7700 185+13 213.00 WWWWW -0.20 -0.12 100% 1.2
2 Boise Thorns Pre- One 6411 2311+12 132.17 WWDWW -0.51 -0.06 98% 2.5
3 La Roca FC Pre South 7412 167+9 131.86 WDWLW +0.16 -0.31 97% 2.9
4 La Roca FC Pre North T1 6312 147+7 101.67 WLDWL -0.20 +0.01 84% 3.7
5 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 7313 1917+2 101.43 WWLDW +0.01 +0.10 19% 4.9
6 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 8305 1822-4 91.13 LLLLW -0.21 +0.29 2% 5.8
7 Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 5023 111-10 20.40 LLLDD -0.18 +0.33 0% 7.2
8 Utah Surf PRE Blue 9018 1241-29 10.11 LDLLL +0.37 +0.33 0% 7.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.