La Roca FC Pre North T1
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU12 · 8 teams · La Roca FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.7 against · 1.91 expected points)
| Season so far | La Roca FC Pre North T1 | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 3-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.43 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D L W | W D L W W |
| Biggest win | 6–2 at Utah Surf PRE Blue | 8–2 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 | 1–5 vs La Roca FC Pre South |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.67 | +0.16 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.20 | +0.01 |
Already played this season: Tue Sep 15 5–1 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (W)
Common opponents: Utah Surf PRE Blue — we 6–2; they 8–2. Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 — we 0–0; they 4–0. Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 2–0; they 2–1. Boise Thorns Pre- One — we 1–2; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1, 0–0 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 58% / draw 18% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (La Roca FC Pre North T1 – Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.86 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd 23%
- 4th 50%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 2%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.62 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 | 3.00 (+1.33) | 1st (2.42) | 53 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 2 | Boise Thorns Pre- One | 2.17 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.02) | 36 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 3 | La Roca FC Pre South | 1.86 (+0.19) | 3rd (1.94) | 30 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
How the results connect
31 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link La Roca FC Pre North T1 to Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 5th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 03:00 PM no score posted |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -10 |
Home Regional Athletic Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.47 | 1.78 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +2 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.91 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 06:00 PM |
Utah Surf PRE Blue 8th · 0-1-8 · GD -29 |
Home La Roca Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 1.90 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
La Roca FC Pre South 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.09 | 1.82 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 04:30 PM |
La Roca FC Pre South 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 04:30 PM |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +2 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.91 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.95 | 1.72 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Utah Surf PRE Blue 8th · 0-1-8 · GD -29 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.58 | 1.78 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.17 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
La Roca FC Pre South 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9 |
Home Regional Athletic Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.72 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th · 3-0-5 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.73 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Boise Thorns Pre- One 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.14 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th · 3-0-5 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Boise Thorns Pre- One 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.14 | 1.68 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -10 |
Home La Roca Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.47 | 1.71 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.20 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 20 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Fri Apr 24 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Boise Thorns Pre- One | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWW | -0.51 | -0.06 | 98% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 20 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Fri Apr 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Sep 12 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | La Roca FC Pre South | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 13 | 1.86 | WDWLW | +0.16 | -0.31 | 97% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Oct 24 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | La Roca FC Pre North T1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 10 | 1.67 | WLDWL | -0.20 | +0.01 | 83% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 10 | 1.43 | WWLDW | +0.01 | +0.10 | 19% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Nov 21 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Idaho Rush Pre- Blue | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 9 | 1.13 | LLLLW | -0.21 | +0.29 | 2% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 20 at Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 · Fri Apr 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 2 | 0.40 | LLLDD | -0.18 | +0.33 | 0% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 20 vs Boise Thorns Pre- One · Fri Apr 24 vs Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Sep 12 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Utah Surf PRE Blue | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 41 | -29 | 1 | 0.11 | LDLLL | +0.37 | +0.33 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Oct 24 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.