Utah Surf PRE Blue
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU12 · 8 teams · Utah Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–6 (expected goals 1.4 for, 6.1 against · 0.10 expected points)
| Season so far | Utah Surf PRE Blue | Boise Thorns Pre- One |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-8 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.11 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Goals against / game | 4.6 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L D L | W W D W W |
| Biggest win | — | 9–1 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue |
| Worst loss | 1–9 at Boise Thorns Pre- One | 1–3 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.23 | +1.13 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.37 | -0.51 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–5 vs Boise Thorns Pre- One (L); Fri Oct 23 1–9 at Boise Thorns Pre- One (L)
Common opponents: La Roca FC Pre North T1 — we 2–6; they 2–1. Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I — we 2–8; they 2–2. Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 — we 0–2, 1–3; they 1–3. Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 4–5, 1–3; they 4–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Boise Thorns Pre- One score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1, 0–0 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 2%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 sit 7th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.11.A win moves us above Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Boise Thorns Pre- One game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Surf PRE Blue – Boise Thorns Pre- One) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.10 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 0.40 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.20 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.10 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–6 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 18%
- 8th 82%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 1.76 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 | 3.00 (+2.89) | 1st (2.42) | 62 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Boise Thorns Pre- One | 2.17 (+2.06) | 2nd (2.02) | 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | La Roca FC Pre South | 1.86 (+1.75) | 3rd (1.94) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | La Roca FC Pre North T1 | 1.67 (+1.56) | 4th (1.71) | 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 5 | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I | 1.43 (+1.32) | 5th (1.38) | 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 6 | Idaho Rush Pre- Blue | 1.13 (+1.02) | 6th (1.10) | 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 7 | Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 | 0.40 (+0.29) | 7th (0.52) | Win next game |
How the results connect
26 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Utah Surf PRE Blue to Boise Thorns Pre- One through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.33 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Boise Thorns Pre- One 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–6 | 0.10 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th · 3-0-5 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–4 | 0.44 | 0.14 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 06:00 PM |
La Roca FC Pre North T1 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
La Roca Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.20 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -10 |
Home Smooth Canyon Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 0.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -10 |
Away Corner Canyon High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
La Roca FC Pre South 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.24 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
La Roca FC Pre South 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9 |
Away La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.14 | 0.30 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
La Roca FC Pre North T1 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–4 | 0.45 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.27 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
La Roca FC Pre South 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.24 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.19 | 0.30 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.20 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 20 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Fri Apr 24 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Boise Thorns Pre- One | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWW | -0.51 | -0.06 | 98% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 20 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Fri Apr 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Sep 12 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | La Roca FC Pre South | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 13 | 1.86 | WDWLW | +0.16 | -0.31 | 97% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Oct 24 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | La Roca FC Pre North T1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 10 | 1.67 | WLDWL | -0.20 | +0.01 | 83% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 10 | 1.43 | WWLDW | +0.01 | +0.10 | 20% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Nov 21 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Idaho Rush Pre- Blue | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 9 | 1.13 | LLLLW | -0.21 | +0.29 | 2% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 20 at Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 · Fri Apr 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 2 | 0.40 | LLLDD | -0.18 | +0.33 | 0% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 20 vs Boise Thorns Pre- One · Fri Apr 24 vs Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Sep 12 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Utah Surf PRE Blue | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 41 | -29 | 1 | 0.11 | LDLLL | +0.37 | +0.33 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Oct 24 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.