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Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU12 · 8 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)

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7th
0-2-4 record · 6 played
0.33 points per game
-15 goal diff · 1–16
LLDDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3
+0.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, TBD

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Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1
7th · 0.33 PPG
at
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
6th · 1.25 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.9 against · 0.38 expected points)

Season so farUtah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
Position7th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-43-1-4
Points per game0.331.25
Goals for / game0.22.4
Goals against / game2.72.4
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless51
Form (recent first)L D D L LL W D L W
Biggest win—8–2 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue
Worst loss0–5 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T11–5 vs La Roca FC Pre South
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.63+0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.20+0.13

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 0–4 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (L)

Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 1–4; they 2–1. La Roca FC Pre South — we 0–3; they 1–5, 1–2. La Roca FC Pre North T1 — we 0–0; they 1–5, 0–2. Utah Surf PRE Blue — we 0–0; they 8–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–3 vs La Roca FC Pre South, 0–4 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I, 0–0 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1, 0–0 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue, 0–5 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 8%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff TBD at TBD.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 – Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.29 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Win
0.71 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
0.43 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Loss
0.29 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 74%
  8. 8th 26%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.24 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 3.00 (+2.67) 1st (2.54) 61 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 La Roca FC Pre South 2.00 (+1.67) 2nd (2.09) 40 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
3 La Roca FC Pre North T1 1.86 (+1.53) 4th (1.79) 38 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 Boise Thorns Pre- One 1.86 (+1.53) 3rd (1.79) 38 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 1.33 (+1.00) 6th (1.25) 26 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 1.25 (+0.92) 5th (1.32) 25 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection

How the results connect

37 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 to Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
3 even
27 favour them
-2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 0–3 5–1 0–0 2–0 2–1 5–1 1–4 1–2 0–0 2–8 0–5 1–0 2–6 4–0 3–1 2–0 Utah Avalanche Pre-… 7th La Roca FC Pre South 2nd La Roca FC Pre Nort… 3rd Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 5th Utah Surf PRE Blue 8th Utah Avalanche Pre-… 1st Utah Avalanche NUU … 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 4th 8th Aug 29 Sep 15 Sep 19 Oct 2 Oct 10 Oct 23 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.28 · 3rd hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Fri Mar 20
TBD
no score posted		 Boise Thorns Pre- One
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +8		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.34 0.33 Upside
Fri Apr 24
TBD
no score posted		 Boise Thorns Pre- One
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +8		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.34 0.34 Upside
Sat Sep 12
TBD
no score posted		 Boise Thorns Pre- One
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.22 0.32 Upside
Sat Oct 10
03:00 PM
no score posted		 La Roca FC Pre North T1
3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9		 Away far trip
Regional Athletic Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–2 0.27 0.32 Upside
Sat Oct 17
TBD
no score posted		 La Roca FC Pre South
2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +13		 Home
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–2 0.25 0.31 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
6th · 3-1-4 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.38 0.32 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM		 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +18		 Away
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–3 0.15 0.30 Upside
Sat Nov 21
12:00 PM		 Utah Surf PRE Blue
8th · 0-1-9 · GD -37		 Away
Smooth Canyon Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.18 0.37 Upside
Sat Mar 13
09:00 AM		 Utah Surf PRE Blue
8th · 0-1-9 · GD -37		 Home
Corner Canyon High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.45 0.44 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
5th · 4-0-5 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–2 0.48 0.44 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
6th · 3-1-4 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
13%		 0–2 0.54 0.45 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
1st · 8-0-0 · GD +18		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–3 0.15 0.43 Upside
Sat Apr 17
12:00 PM		 La Roca FC Pre South
2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +13		 Away
La Roca FC Utah County Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.16 0.42 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
5th · 4-0-5 · GD +4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–2 0.48 0.42 Upside
Sat May 15
09:00 AM		 La Roca FC Pre North T1
3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9		 Away far trip
La Roca Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–2 0.27 0.41 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 8800 235+18 243.00 WWWWW -0.41 -0.10 100% 1.1
2 La Roca FC Pre South 8512 218+13 162.00 DWLWW +0.31 -0.49 100% 2.3
3 La Roca FC Pre North T1 7412 167+9 131.86 LDWLW -0.23 +0.01 91% 3.4
4 Boise Thorns Pre- One 7412 2416+8 131.86 WDWWL -0.23 -0.11 91% 3.5
5 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 9405 2723+4 121.33 LLLWW -0.63 +0.53 8% 5.5
6 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 8314 1919+0 101.25 WLDWL +0.13 -0.05 10% 5.3
7 Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 6024 116-15 20.33 LLDDL +0.20 +0.28 0% 7.3
8 Utah Surf PRE Blue 10019 1350-37 10.10 DLLLL +0.38 +0.41 0% 7.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.