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Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU12 · 8 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)

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7th
0-2-3 record · 5 played
0.40 points per game
-10 goal diff · 1–11
LLLDDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2
-0.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1
7th · 0.40 PPG
vs
Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
1st · 3.00 PPG

Rockwell Training Facility, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.5 for, 2.3 against · 0.37 expected points)

Season so farUtah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
Position7th1st
Record (W-D-L)0-2-37-0-0
Points per game0.403.00
Goals for / game0.22.6
Goals against / game2.20.7
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)D D L L LW W W W W
Biggest win—3–1 vs La Roca FC Pre South
Worst loss0–4 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.24+1.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.18-0.20

Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 1–4; they 4–2. La Roca FC Pre South — we 0–3; they 3–1, 1–0. La Roca FC Pre North T1 — we 0–0; they 2–0. Utah Surf PRE Blue — we 0–0; they 2–0, 3–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 concede only 0.7/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 vs La Roca FC Pre South, 0–4 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I, 0–0 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1, 0–0 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 – Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.33 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Win
0.83 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Loss
0.33 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 77%
  8. 8th 19%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 3.00 (+2.60) 1st (2.42) 61 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Boise Thorns Pre- One 2.17 (+1.77) 2nd (2.02) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 La Roca FC Pre South 1.86 (+1.46) 3rd (1.94) 38 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 La Roca FC Pre North T1 1.67 (+1.27) 4th (1.71) 34 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
5 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 1.43 (+1.03) 5th (1.38) 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 1.13 (+0.73) 6th (1.10) 22 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

33 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 to Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
3 even
28 favour them
-4.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 0–2 1–3 0–0 0–2 0–3 0–1 1–3 1–4 2–4 2–0 0–4 8–2 4–0 6–2 Utah Avalanche Pre-… 7th Utah Surf PRE Blue 8th La Roca FC Pre Nort… 4th La Roca FC Pre South 3rd Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th Utah Avalanche NUU … 5th Utah Avalanche Pre-… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 4th 8th Aug 29 Sep 15 Sep 19 Oct 2 Oct 10 Oct 23

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.33 · 2nd hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Fri Mar 20
TBD
no score posted		 Boise Thorns Pre- One
2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +12		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.36 0.39 Upside
Fri Apr 24
TBD
no score posted		 Boise Thorns Pre- One
2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +12		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.36 0.39 Upside
Sat Sep 12
TBD
no score posted		 Boise Thorns Pre- One
2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +12		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.24 0.37 Upside
Sat Oct 10
03:00 PM
no score posted		 La Roca FC Pre North T1
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Regional Athletic Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.38 0.37 Upside
Sat Oct 17
TBD
no score posted		 La Roca FC Pre South
3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9		 Home
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.42 0.38 Upside
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM		 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13		 Home
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.37 0.38 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
5th · 3-1-3 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.45 0.38 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM		 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13		 Away
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–2 0.27 0.37 Upside
Sat Nov 21
12:00 PM		 Utah Surf PRE Blue
8th · 0-1-8 · GD -29		 Away
Smooth Canyon Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.26 0.44 Upside
Sat Mar 13
09:00 AM		 Utah Surf PRE Blue
8th · 0-1-8 · GD -29		 Home
Corner Canyon High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.53 0.51 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
6th · 3-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.83 0.53 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
5th · 3-1-3 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.63 0.54 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–2 0.27 0.52 Upside
Sat Apr 17
12:00 PM		 La Roca FC Pre South
3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9		 Away
La Roca FC Utah County Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–2 0.30 0.51 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
6th · 3-0-5 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.83 0.53 Upside
Sat May 15
09:00 AM		 La Roca FC Pre North T1
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7		 Away far trip
La Roca Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.38 0.52 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 7700 185+13 213.00 WWWWW -0.20 -0.12 100% 1.2
2 Boise Thorns Pre- One 6411 2311+12 132.17 WWDWW -0.51 -0.06 98% 2.5
3 La Roca FC Pre South 7412 167+9 131.86 WDWLW +0.16 -0.31 97% 2.9
4 La Roca FC Pre North T1 6312 147+7 101.67 WLDWL -0.20 +0.01 83% 3.7
5 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 7313 1917+2 101.43 WWLDW +0.01 +0.10 19% 4.9
6 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 8305 1822-4 91.13 LLLLW -0.21 +0.29 2% 5.8
7 Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 5023 111-10 20.40 LLLDD -0.18 +0.33 0% 7.2
8 Utah Surf PRE Blue 9018 1241-29 10.11 LDLLL +0.37 +0.33 0% 7.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.