Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU12 · 8 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)

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5th

3-1-3 record · 7 played

1.43 points per game

+2 goal diff · 19–17

WWLDWlast 5

20% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.9

+0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
5th · 1.43 PPG

La Roca FC Pre North T1
4th · 1.67 PPG

La Roca Park, Field 3 ↗ far trip

24% 18% 58%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.6 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so far	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I	La Roca FC Pre North T1
Position	5th	4th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-3	3-1-2
Points per game	1.43	1.67
Goals for / game	2.7	2.3
Goals against / game	2.4	1.2
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W D L W W	L W D L W
Biggest win	8–2 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue	6–2 at Utah Surf PRE Blue
Worst loss	1–5 vs La Roca FC Pre South	0–2 at Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.16	+0.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.01	-0.20

Already played this season: Tue Sep 15 1–5 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1 (L)

Common opponents: Utah Surf PRE Blue — we 8–2; they 6–2. Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 — we 4–0; they 0–0. Boise Thorns Pre- One — we 2–2; they 1–2. Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 2–1; they 2–0.

Game plan

Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at La Roca Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC Pre North T1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I – La Roca FC Pre North T1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.25 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Win 1.63 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Draw 1.38 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.25 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

20% top 4

81% below the top 4

4.9 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 3%
4th 16%
5th 69%
6th 11%
7th <1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1	3.00 (+1.57)	1st (2.42)	47 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Boise Thorns Pre- One	2.17 (+0.74)	2nd (2.02)	32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3	La Roca FC Pre South	1.86 (+0.43)	3rd (1.94)	26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4	La Roca FC Pre North T1	1.67 (+0.24)	4th (1.71)	22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection

How the results connect

31 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I to La Roca FC Pre North T1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us

4 even

12 favour them

+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 4th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM	La Roca FC Pre North T1 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7	Away far trip La Roca Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.91	1.36	Upside
Sat Nov 7 TBD	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -10	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	2–0	2.40	1.48	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 TBD	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13	Home	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.84	1.41	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13	Away	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–2	0.62	1.34	Upside
Sat Mar 20 04:30 PM	La Roca FC Pre North T1 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7	Away far trip La Roca Park	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.91	1.31	Upside
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -10	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.19	1.37	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +13	Home	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.84	1.34	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Utah Surf PRE Blue 8th · 0-1-8 · GD -29	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	4–1	2.44	1.41	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Utah Surf PRE Blue 8th · 0-1-8 · GD -29	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	4–1	2.65	1.49	Bank it
Sat May 1 TBD	Boise Thorns Pre- One 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +12	Away	●●●●● Very tough	20%	2–3	0.74	1.44	Upside
Sat May 8 TBD	Boise Thorns Pre- One 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +12	Away	●●●●● Very tough	20%	2–3	0.74	1.40	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	La Roca FC Pre South 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +9	Home	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–2	1.00	1.38	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1

+13

3.00

WWWWW

-0.20

-0.12

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	3–1

Next: Fri Mar 20 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Fri Apr 24 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Mar 20 (no score yet)	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	3–1	76%
·	Fri Apr 24 (no score yet)	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat May 15	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	4–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boise Thorns Pre- One

+12

2.17

WWDWW

-0.51

-0.06

98%

2.5

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	9–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–3

Next: Fri Mar 20 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Fri Apr 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Sep 12 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Mar 20 (no score yet)	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	80%
·	Fri Apr 24 (no score yet)	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	6–1	94%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	3–2	65%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	4–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	3–2	66%
·	Sat May 1	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	3–2	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC Pre South

1.86

WDWLW

+0.16

-0.31

97%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- Two (—)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	5–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Oct 24 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 8	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	4–1	87%
·	Sat May 15	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	2–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC Pre North T1

1.67

WLDWL

-0.20

+0.01

83%

3.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–0
D	Fri Oct 2	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	0–2
W	Tue Sep 15	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	6–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 1	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 1	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	1–2	32%
·	Sat May 8	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 8	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	1–2	32%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I

1.43

WWLDW

+0.01

+0.10

20%

4.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	4–0
W	Thu Sep 17	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	8–2
L	Tue Sep 15	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 · Sat Nov 21 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	4–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat May 1	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	2–3	20%
·	Sat May 8	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	2–3	20%
·	Sat May 15	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Idaho Rush Pre- Blue

-4

1.13

LLLLW

-0.21

+0.29

5.9

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	5–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	4–1

Next: Fri Mar 20 at Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 · Fri Apr 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Mar 20 (no score yet)	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Fri Apr 24 (no score yet)	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	4–1	78%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	1–4	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 1	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1

-10

0.40

LLLDD

-0.18

+0.33

7.1

D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	0–0
D	Fri Oct 2	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–4

Next: Fri Mar 20 vs Boise Thorns Pre- One · Fri Apr 24 vs Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Sep 12 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Mar 20 (no score yet)	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Fri Apr 24 (no score yet)	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (8th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat May 15	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Surf PRE Blue

-29

0.11

LDLLL

+0.37

+0.33

7.8

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	1–9
L	Fri Oct 23	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	1–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	4–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	0–2
L	Thu Sep 17	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	2–8
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	2–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Oct 24 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (2nd)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–4	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South Tanner T1 (7th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	1–4	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (5th)	1–4	7%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (3rd)	1–4	5%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- Scott T1 (1st)	0–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.