Vale Rush United Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · Vale Rush United (all teams)

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7th

1-1-3 record · 5 played

0.80 points per game

-4 goal diff · 10–14

LDLWLlast 5

6% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4

-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Vale Rush United Pre
7th · 0.80 PPG

AC Connecticut Pre
6th · 1.00 PPG

Western Connecticut State University - Westside At, Field 1 ↗ far trip

31% 22% 47%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.0 against · 1.16 expected points)

Season so far	Vale Rush United Pre	AC Connecticut Pre
Position	7th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-3	1-1-2
Points per game	0.80	1.00
Goals for / game	2.0	1.0
Goals against / game	2.8	1.5
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L W L D L	W L L D
Biggest win	3–0 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre	2–0 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
Worst loss	0–4 vs New England Surf Pre	1–4 at New England Surf Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.51	-0.22
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.08	+0.11

Common opponents: New England Surf Pre — we 0–4; they 1–4. Connecticut FC Legacy Pre — we 3–0; they 2–0. Scorpions SC South Pre — we 3–5; they 1–2.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs New England Surf Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 31%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Western Connecticut State University - Westside At.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
AC Connecticut Pre sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.
A point moves us above AC Connecticut Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AC Connecticut Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Vale Rush United Pre – AC Connecticut Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 0.83 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Win 1.17 PPG	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1
Draw 0.83 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Loss 0.67 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

6% top 4

94% below the top 4

6.4 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 5%
5th 11%
6th 24%
7th 59%
8th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.48 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	New England Surf Pre	3.00 (+2.20)	1st (2.58)	59 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre	2.00 (+1.20)	4th (1.47)	38 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3	Select Northeast Pre	1.75 (+0.95)	2nd (1.92)	33 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
4	Albany Alleycats Pre	1.75 (+0.95)	3rd (1.48)	33 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5	Scorpions SC South Pre	1.50 (+0.70)	5th (1.40)	28 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6	AC Connecticut Pre	1.00 (+0.20)	6th (1.20)	A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Vale Rush United Pre to AC Connecticut Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

7 favour them

-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 3rd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	AC Connecticut Pre 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Away far trip Western Connecticut State University - Westside At	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.16	0.86	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Scorpions SC South Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1	Away far trip Lincoln School Athletic Complex @ Faxon Farm	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–3	0.98	0.88	Upside
Sat Nov 14 10:30 AM	New England Surf Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15	Away far trip Union Point Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–4	0.18	0.79	Upside
Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM	Select Northeast Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5	Away far trip Lovell Field	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–2	0.55	0.76	Upside
Sat Feb 27 TBD	Albany Alleycats Pre 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0	Home	●●●●○ Tough	36%	2–2	1.26	0.81	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Select Northeast Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5	Home	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.74	0.81	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–1	2.28	0.93	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 TBD	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1	Away	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–2	0.98	0.93	Upside
Sat Mar 27 TBD	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	3–1	2.49	1.04	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 TBD	AC Connecticut Pre 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Home	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.44	1.07	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Scorpions SC South Pre 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -1	Home	●●●●○ Tough	38%	2–2	1.31	1.09	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	New England Surf Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15	Home	●●●●● Very tough	7%	1–3	0.30	1.04	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	Albany Alleycats Pre 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	26%	2–2	0.95	1.03	Upside
Sun May 9 TBD	Select Northeast Pre 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5	Away	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–2	0.55	1.01	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1	Home	●●●●○ Tough	34%	1–1	1.24	1.02	Upside
Sat Jun 5 TBD	AC Connecticut Pre 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Away	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.16	1.03	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

New England Surf Pre

+15

3.00

WWWW

-0.42

-0.23

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC South Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Albany Alleycats Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Stars New Hampshire Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	4–0	97%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat May 1	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun May 16	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–0	81%
·	Sun Jun 6	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	4–1	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars New Hampshire Pre

2.00

WWL

-0.75

+0.14

62%

4.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select Northeast Pre · Sun Nov 1 at New England Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat May 1	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat May 15	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun May 23	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Select Northeast Pre

1.75

DWWL

+0.49

-0.23

99%

2.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars New Hampshire Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Vale Rush United Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	88%
·	Sat May 1	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat May 15	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat May 22	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	88%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–0	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albany Alleycats Pre

1.75

WDLW

+0.07

-0.01

63%

4.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs AC Connecticut Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–2	49%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–2	57%
·	Sun May 9	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Scorpions SC South Pre

-1

1.50

LLWW

-0.02

+0.02

50%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	5–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at New England Surf Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Vale Rush United Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Albany Alleycats Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–2	32%
·	Sat May 15	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Jun 6	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–4	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AC Connecticut Pre

-2

1.00

DLLW

+0.11

+0.01

20%

5.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–4
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Connecticut FC Legacy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Vale Rush United Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Albany Alleycats Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun May 16	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat May 22	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sun May 23	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Vale Rush United Pre

-4

0.80

LDLWL

-0.08

+0.10

6.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	3–5
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Connecticut Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC South Pre · Sat Nov 14 at New England Surf Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy Pre (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat May 1	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	2–2	26%
·	Sun May 9	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat May 15	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Connecticut FC Legacy Pre

-14

0.00

LLLL

+0.27

+0.28

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 at AC Connecticut Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Albany Alleycats Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Select Northeast Pre See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–2	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Vale Rush United Pre (7th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–2	3%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire Pre (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat May 1	vs	New England Surf Pre (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat May 8	at	AC Connecticut Pre (6th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Scorpions SC South Pre (5th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun May 23	at	Select Northeast Pre (3rd)	0–2	3%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	Albany Alleycats Pre (4th)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.