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Scorpions SC South Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · Scorpions SC (all teams)

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5th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
-1 goal diff · 10–11
LLWWlast 4
51% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5
-0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM

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Scorpions SC South Pre
5th · 1.50 PPG
at
New England Surf Pre
1st · 3.00 PPG

Union Point Sports Complex, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.2 for, 4.1 against · 0.25 expected points)

Season so farScorpions SC South PreNew England Surf Pre
Position5th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-0-24-0-0
Points per game1.503.00
Goals for / game2.54.0
Goals against / game2.80.3
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W L LW W W W
Biggest win5–3 at Vale Rush United Pre7–0 at Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
Worst loss2–4 vs Albany Alleycats Pre—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.08+1.99
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.02-0.42

Common opponents: Select Northeast Pre — we 1–3; they 1–0. AC Connecticut Pre — we 2–1; they 4–1. Vale Rush United Pre — we 5–3; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    New England Surf Pre score 4.0/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    New England Surf Pre concede only 0.2/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 6%; a draw (8%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    New England Surf Pre have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:30 PM at Union Point Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Albany Alleycats Pre sit 4th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Albany Alleycats Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the New England Surf Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Scorpions SC South Pre – New England Surf Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
1.80 PPG
3rd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 2 5th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.20 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–4 loss we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
51% top 4
49% below the top 4
4.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 25%
  5. 5th 24%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 New England Surf Pre 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.58) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
2 FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 2.00 (+0.50) 4th (1.47) 36 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 Select Northeast Pre 1.75 (+0.25) 2nd (1.92) A point next game
4 Albany Alleycats Pre 1.75 (+0.25) 3rd (1.48) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Scorpions SC South Pre to New England Surf Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
8 favour them
-3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–3 0–4 2–1 1–4 1–3 0–1 0–0 3–0 0–7 2–0 2–4 3–3 0–4 Scorpions SC South … 5th Vale Rush United Pre 7th AC Connecticut Pre 6th Select Northeast Pre 3rd Albany Alleycats Pre 4th Connecticut FC Lega… 8th New England Surf Pre 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 4th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
03:30 PM
New England Surf Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away far trip
Union Point Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.25 1.25 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Vale Rush United Pre
7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Home
Lincoln School Athletic Complex @ Faxon Farm
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
3–2 1.86 1.35 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM
Albany Alleycats Pre
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Away far trip
Afrims Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.19 1.33 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Away far trip
CFC Park
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.48 1.47 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
12:45 PM
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre
2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
MYSA Progin Park
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.18 1.44 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD
Select Northeast Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.68 1.36 Upside
Sun Feb 28
TBD
AC Connecticut Pre
6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 1.39 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
TBD
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre
2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.47 1.40 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
AC Connecticut Pre
6th · 1-1-2 · GD -2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.67 1.42 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.65 1.51 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
New England Surf Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.40 1.43 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Vale Rush United Pre
7th · 1-1-3 · GD -4
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.51 1.44 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Albany Alleycats Pre
4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.52 1.44 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Select Northeast Pre
3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.91 1.41 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
FC Stars New Hampshire Pre
2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.18 1.40 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Connecticut FC Legacy Pre
8th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.48 1.45 Bank it
Sun Jun 6
TBD
New England Surf Pre
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +15
Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.25 1.40 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 New England Surf Pre 4400 161+15 123.00 WWWW -0.42 -0.23 100% 1.0
2 FC Stars New Hampshire Pre 3201 43+1 62.00 WWL -0.75 +0.14 62% 4.2
3 Select Northeast Pre 4211 72+5 71.75 DWWL +0.49 -0.23 98% 2.3
4 Albany Alleycats Pre 4211 99+0 71.75 WDLW +0.07 -0.01 63% 4.1
5 Scorpions SC South Pre 4202 1011-1 61.50 LLWW -0.02 +0.02 51% 4.5
6 AC Connecticut Pre 4112 46-2 41.00 DLLW +0.11 +0.01 20% 5.6
7 Vale Rush United Pre 5113 1014-4 40.80 LDLWL -0.08 +0.10 7% 6.4
8 Connecticut FC Legacy Pre 4004 014-14 00.00 LLLL +0.27 +0.28 0% 8.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.